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500/1 madness – and two young guns in La Liga…

Monday 5th October 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Crazy scores, big prices…
  • Youngsters scoring for Madrid and Barca…
  • Euro 2020 Playoffs…

500/1 madness – and two young guns in La Liga…

The goal of Friday’s analysis was to identify some Anytime Scorer value in the weekend fixtures. We managed that with Lewis Ferguson popping up with a late winner for Aberdeen on Friday night.

One will do…

At the prices we go for, we don’t need all or even half of our picks to win in order to make them profitable overall. That was the case at the weekend, with a standout 5/1 on Ferguson taking care of business for us.

The Scottish midfielder has now got five goals in eight Scottish Premiership appearances this season. Friday’s low long-range effort was his first to come from open play. Ferguson’s other four strikes so far have all come from the penalty spot.

That 2-1 win for Aberdeen condemns St Mirren to a sixth consecutive defeat.

Crazy scores, big prices…

The last couple of weeks have seen some mad results in the top divisions. And with crazy score-lines, come big prices…

On 27th September, Bayern Munich’s 23-game winning streak finally came to an end – and in quite spectacular fashion. Hoffenheim pulled off a shock 4-1 win in that Bundesliga encounter:

  • The home side were 11/1 underdogs to beat the European champions, and that 4-1 Correct Score was a whopping 150/1

Bayern have since bounced back with a 3-2 win v Borussia Dortmund in the German Super Cup, followed by a 4-3 win in the league yesterday. Sunday’s victory over Hertha Berlin saw Bayern goal machine Robert Lewandowski score all four goals  for his side.

As we noted last week, Man City retaliated from a 5-2 home loss v Leicester in the Premier League with a 3-0 away win in the EFL Cup. Back in league action over the weekend, City had to settle for a 1-1 draw at Leeds Utd. And Leicester duly lost 3-0 at home v West Ham

  • Leicester’s win at the Etihad was 9/1 in the Match Result market. The whacky 5-2 score was as big as 500/1. West Ham were a 3/1 winner at Leicester on Sunday, with the 3-0 away win at 50/1

And that’s before we even get on to Sunday’s really crazy goings-on…

Tottenham triumphed 6-1 at Man Utd. The away win for Spurs was 5/2 (3.5). The 6-1 Correct Score was over 200/1.

That was backed up on Super Sunday with Aston Villa recording one of the most remarkable Premier League results of all time…

Villa’s 7-2 (SEVEN-two) score-line against champions Liverpool was so unprecedented that is doesn’t even appear as a Correct Score option on some bookies’ sites. You’re talking in the region of 500/1 anyway. The home win had been 6/1 pre-match.

And I’m telling you all this because…

While we're never likely to be lining up a 7-2 Correct Score pick in our match-day analysis (!). We can use high-goals form and upset-potential to identify big-odds opportunities across a variety of markets…

For example, in Italy, Atalanta have started the new Serie A season with goal-filled 4-2, 4-1 and 5-2 victories…

We successfully latched onto Atalanta’s all-out-attack football in the Champions League last season, with 25/1 odds in the Half Time/ Full Time market.

The 2020/21 UEFA cup competition draws were made last week, and the Italian side have been placed in the same group as Liverpool

Those Group D games could provide plenty of goals and topsy-turvy score-lines. In last season’s Champions League, Liverpool had a 4-3 v goal-happy Austrian champions, RB Salzburg. Don’t be surprised to see something similar across the home & away meetings with Atalanta

  • Atalanta v Liverpool is scheduled for Tuesday 3rd November

Young guns in La Liga…

Real Madrid and Barcelona are the big two in Spain, and both clubs have got some exciting youngsters making waves in the first team…

We talked about Barca’s 17-year-old forward Ansu Fati last week. The Spanish kid has scored in two out of three La Liga starts this season (two First Goalscorer payouts). He turns 18 on the last day of this month.

Real have got 20-year-old Vinicius Junior starting to become more a regular up front…

After one goal in 10 league appearances after the 2019/20 re-start in June (four starts, six substitute apps). The Brazilian has started two out of three games for Madrid in the new campaign, finding the net twice, and landing the First Goalscorer odds on both occasions.

  • The top European leagues are on a break for International fixtures this coming weekend. But when La Liga returns on 17th October, we’ll be keeping an eye out for Ansu Fati and Vinicius Junior in the Scorer markets

Euro 2020 Playoffs – at last…

There’s English League One and League Two action coming up at the weekend. But most of this week’s football has an International flavour to it, with Friendlies, UFEA Nations League fixtures – and the long-awaited ‘Euro 2020’ Qualification Playoffs

The European Championships have been moved to next summer, of course. This Thursday evening, 16 countries will be battling it out in the Playoff semi finals. There are four places in next summer’s event up for grabs.

This week’s eight ties include Scotland v Israel, Slovakia v Republic of Ireland, and Bosnia & Herzegovina v Northern Ireland.

If Scotland get through, they’ll play Norway or Serbia for a place at the rescheduled Euro 2020 Finals.

And if Republic of Ireland win their tie, they will have to take on Bosnia & Herzegovina or Northern Ireland.

We’ll be taking a closer look at those matches later in the week. Pending the latest squad news, I’ve got one player in the notebook that we’ll be keeping an eye on.

I’ll be back tomorrow, ready to pick the bones out of the Transfer Deadline Day hysteria…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues