Thursday 4th February 2021
In Across the Leagues today:
The theme of our midweek analysis has been Cards & Booking Points. I didn’t set out for that to be the case. But that’s where the stats & research took us...
All told, the featured games in this week’s Across the Leagues emails covered four games from a disciplinary stance. With three payouts:
Sporting Lisbon v Benfica – Over 6.5 Cards @ 5/6 (1.83)
Result: 8 Yellow Cards (80 Booking Pts)
Inter Milan v Juventus – Over 45.5 Booking Points @ 8/11 (1.73)
Result: 90 Booking Pts (9 Cards)
Granada v Barcelona – Over 5.5 Cards @ Evens (2.0)
Result: 4 Cards (40 Booking Pts)
Burnley v Man City – Most Booking Points: Burnley @ 5/4 (2.25)
Result: Burnley 20 Pts, Man City 10 pts (Cards = 2-1)
Last night’s Copa del Rey quarter final between Granada and Barcelona did eventually burst the 5.5-card line. But not until during extra time. All standard match-day markets, be it Match Result, Goals, Corners, or Cards, refer to ‘normal time’ only.
Burnley delivered again for the Most Cards and Most Booking Points. Their home Premier League record for that bet now stands at a noteworthy 70%.
Man City remain the best-behaved team in the Premier League, receiving the Most Cards/ Booking Pts in just one of their 10 away games (10%).
City’s 2-0 victory at Turf Moor also takes their current winning streak to 13 games in a row in all competitions. And 10 of those 13 wins have been To Nil.
If you’re looking for a stats-based pointer or two for this evening’s football, I can offer you these from my notes today…
Tottenham v Chelsea
Premier League, 8pm – BT Sport
Tottenham have won the Most Corners in just 2 of their last 8 home games in the Premier League.
Chelsea have paid out on the Corners Match Bet in 3 of their last 4 away games in the league. Although those matches stretch back to 15th December, as 6 of Chelsea’s last 8 outings in all competitions have been at Stamford Bridge.
Since Thomas Tuchel took over at Chelsea, his team have drawn 0-0 v Wolves, bossing the corners, 13-1. And won 2-0 v Burnley, with a 4-2 corners tally.
The price is nothing to wrote home about today though. Chelsea for the Most Corners is 4/6 (1.67) at best, with Skybet. And around 1/2 (1.5) everywhere else.
Real Betis v Athletic Bilbao
Spain, Copa del Rey, 8pm – Premier Sports
Raul Garcia has started the last 4 league games for Bilbao, but the 34-year-old is sometimes used as a substitute in the cup these days. He’s come on in the 2nd Half in each of the last two rounds in the Copa del Rey, scoring once.
Overall, he’s been booked or scored in 6 of his last 12 appearances for Bilbao. Skybet is also the place to go if you want to follow Raul Garcia tonight. He’s a top price 16/5 (4.2) to Score Anytime, and 13/8 (2.63) to be Carded.
The doubt in my mind comes from not knowing if he’s likely to be in the starting XI or not. If Raul Garcia does start, or comes on with plenty of time left on the clock, then he’s one to watch out for.
While the Corners & Cards bets that we’ve discussed today trade at around the Even Money (2.0) mark. Plenty of my other analysis take us to much larger odds, and more speculative outcomes…
Betting at big prices requires a long-term mindset. You’re not going to land a 3-out-of-4 strike-rate on 25/1 Half Time/ Full Time reversals, for example. But at those prices, you don’t need to…
The HT/ FT markets are something I’ve been tracking this season. In the Premier League, five of the 214 games played have produced a half-time/ full-time comeback. As you can see, they don’t occur too often. But when they do, the odds are chunky.
I’ve gone through my records, and dug out all the occasions where I’ve recommended bets on the HT/ FT turnaround, since February 2019.
This two-year list serves as a great illustration of the point I’m reminding us of today: betting at long odds is a long-term game…
The table shows a total of 18 bet selections, across 10 different football matches, over a two-year period.
With 15 losers, and 3 winners. If the question is, how do you make a profit from a lowly 17% strike-rate? Then the answer is, by betting at big odds…
Those three payouts, at 28/1, 25/1, and 25/1, have generated a 1-point level-stakes profit of 63 pts, for a 350% ROI.
So, if you’re following me in on the days and nights where I flag up a game with 25/1 HT/ FT potential… or a 156/1 Win & Both Teams to Score combo… or a 33/1 Each Way pick for Top Goalscorer…
Then remember: we’ll have more losers than winners. But as that two-year record shows, it doesn’t matter if we lose a lot of battles – as long as we win the war.
You can read more about expecting more losers than winners from my analysis in the battle-cry displayed on our website, here.
I’ll be back tomorrow with my Weekend Preview (and maybe a big-odds selection).
My colleague Nick Pullen has written a great article today about the new measures being considered by the Gambling Commission – and how you can have your say. Nick is our racing analyst, but this is a subject that very much applies to all of us sports fans that enjoy a bet. I’d encourage you to take a look, and read Nick’s article here.
Enjoy the football…