Monday 3rd October 2022

In Across the Leagues today:

• The stats help us look beyond the hype…
• Haaland v Clarke-Harris…
• Champions League tomorrow…

A better bet than Erling Haaland…

After three hat-tricks in eight Premier League games (!), everyone is rightly raving about Erling Haaland’s goal-scoring exploits for Manchester City.

But the question is, how do we make money from this guy?

The bookies are all over the Man City striker. If you back Haaland in the scorer markets, you can only expect to deal in short, odds-on prices.

Perhaps we can do better by looking elsewhere. The stats on our website help us look beyond the hype…

Haaland’s latest exploits came in Sunday’s Manchester derby, with the 22-year-old Norwegian firing off a three-goal salvo in City’s 6-3 win over United.

• William Hill paid 4/9 (1.44) for Haaland to score Anytime in that match. Hills paid out on Phil Foden as First Goalscorer at 17/2 (9.5), and Anthony Martial at 17/2 for Last Scorer

If we look to the prices for Man City’s next fixture, which comes in the Champions League on Wednesday, at home v FC Copenhagen. The bookies are going even shorter odds-on for the blonde-haired goal machine, with young Erling priced at 1/5 (1.2) in the Anytime Scorer market with William Hill. Bet365 are an ‘industry best’ 4/11 (1.36).

Since joining Man City this season, all three of Haaland’s hat-tricks have come at home. For this week’s Champions League outing at the Etihad stadium, the bookies are offering around 4/1 (5.0) for the superstar striker to take home the match ball once again. I think that’s the shortest price I’ve ever seen in the ‘To Score a Hat-trick’ market. In comparison, Phil Foden – who also bagged three goals in yesterday’s 6-3 derby win – is 40/1 to repeat the trick this Wednesday.

Back to that question of making money…

Let’s take yesterday’s Premier League price of Haaland at 4/9 (1.44) for Anytime Scorer, and apply it to all of his club appearances so far in 2022/23. He’s landed that bet in 9 out of 11 games.

If you’d backed Haaland at 4/9 in every game, to level 1-point stakes:

Staked = 11 pts
Returned = 13 pts
Profit = 2 pts
ROI = 18%

A profit’s a profit, right? But remember, you probably won’t even get 4/9 for Haaland most times, especially with his profile now as high as it’s ever been. If we instead use Wednesday’s 1/5 odds to score v Copenhagen, then the season-to-date profit/ loss figure drops to just below break-even (-0.2 pt).

How about we leave the Premier League and Champions League behind for a moment, and look instead to the less glamourous setting of English League One…

Scorer bet comparison: Haaland v Clarke-Harris…

Peterborough forward Jonson-Clarke Harris is top scorer in League One right now, with 8 goals from 11 games. The 28-year-old has delivered 5 x Anytime Scorer payouts – the joint-highest in the division. His last three goal-scoring appearances have also seen Jonson pay out as First Goalscorer (most recent odds, 4/1).

In Saturday’s 3-2 win at MK Dons, Clarke-Harris opened the scoring for the visitors after just three minutes. In the Anytime Scorer market, William Hill paid out at 13/8 (2.63). The odds aren’t up yet for Peterborough’s next match, which is at home in the league v Burton this coming Saturday, 8th October. Let’s use that 13/8 price to fill out the if-backed-in-every-game figures…

If you’d backed Clarke-Harris at 13/8 in all 11 league games this season, to level 1-point stakes:

Staked = 11 pts
Returned = 13.13
Profit = 2.13
ROI = 19%

So, there you have it. By one percentage point, Peterborough’s Jonson Clarke-Harris at 13/8 is proving a more profitable Anytime Scorer bet this season than Manchester City’s Erling Haaland at 4/9.

If we look to the First Scorer stats on our website, the Posh player moves further ahead in terms of a value betting proposition…

Haaland’s last first-scorer payout for Man City came away at Sevilla on 6th September. William Hill paid 15/8 (2.88). Clarke-Harris scored the first goal for Peterborough at the weekend, at 4/1 (5.0).

Applying the same level-stakes approach to the First Scorer markets:

Haaland – First Scorer @ 15/8
3 payouts from 8 Premier League games
Staked = 8 pts
Returned = 8.63
Profit = 0.63
ROI = 8%

Clarke-Harris – First Scorer @ 4/1
3 payouts from 11 League One games
Staked = 11 pts
Returned = 15
Profit = 4
ROI = 36%

Those figures make the Peterborough player clearly more profitable than the City striker, when it comes to taking the quoted odds for First Goalscorer – with a 36% ROI for Clarke-Harris, compared to just 8% for Haaland.

The takeaway point in today’s analysis being, while no-one is going to debate who’s the better striker out of rising world football superstar Haaland, and League One’s Clarke-Harris. When it comes to betting, in the weekly Anytime and First Scorer markets, the Peterborough player is the better value right now.

League One top scorer – Jonson Clarke-Harris:

Premier League top scorer – Erling Haaland:

• View all our bet-specific stats for 17 leagues by logging-in at: www.acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Goals win games…

Another way we can potentially profit from Haaland & Clarke-Harris’ goals-scoring feats this season, is in our pair of 2022/23 ‘mega-accas’…

Peterborough feature alongside Norwich and Mansfield in our 500/1+ English Football League treble .

And Man City are in the book alongside Roma and Villarreal in our 300/1+ UEFA cups Trixie .

I’ll be back tomorrow, with the midweek fixture list headlined by Champions League Matchday 3. Tuesday’s action includes Inter Milan v Barcelona, Eintracht Frankfurt v Tottenham, and Liverpool v Rangers.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues