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A small margin of victory at 43/1...

Tuesday 16th March 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Title race in France…
  • When PSG lose…
  • Winning Margin stats for tonight…

A small margin of victory at 43/1…

It’s not just the Premier League that’s feeling the no-fans factor…

In Spain, seven of the weekend’s 10 La Liga games went Under 2.5 Goals. Including a lifeless Sevilla-Betis derby (1-0), and a trio of 0-0 draws.

Three-horse race…

The coronavirus-dictated 2020/21 season isn’t all boring, though. In France – for a change – there’s a proper title race…

With nine games to go, here’s how things stand in Ligue 1:

French Ligue One Table

When PSG lose…

PSG have won the title in seven of the last eight seasons. But the Paris giants lost at the weekend, missing the chance to go top…

A 1-2 home defeat v relegation battlers Nantes chalked up some huge odds. The away win was 14/1, and the Nantes 2-1 Correct Score was 33/1. The underdogs came from a goal down at the break. In the Half Time/ Full Time betting, that PSG/ Nantes reversal was 66/1.

Those in favour of an upset in France can make the case that PSG may prioritise the Champions League. The European cup is the allusive prize that they really want. The 2019/20 runners-up are through to the quarter finals, and 5/1 to go all the way this time.

The bookies still have the reigning Ligue 1 champs as odds-on favourites to retain the title. With a three-horse race in the Outright Winner market priced as:

PSG 1/2 (1.5)
Lille 7/2 (4.5)
Lyon 4/1 (5.0)

There’s a potentially significant brace of games coming up this Sunday. In the afternoon, leaders Lille are at home v second-bottom Nimes. Giving the hosts the chance to temporarily go six points clear, before Lyon v PSG kicks off in the evening.

  • Lille are unbeaten in 11 games, winning 8 and drawing 3. But they’ve still got to play both PSG and Lyon away. Lille last won the league in 2010/11 

PSG have lost a total of nine games this season, across all competitions. When the Parisians taste defeat, it’s usually by a close score-line:

  • 8 of PSG’s 9 defeats have been by a one-goal margin. With 3 x 1-0 losses, 3 x 2-1, and 2 x 3-2

The Margin of Victory market has cropped up in my English Football League (EFL) research today, too…

This evening’s two Champions League matches don’t grab me. Man City are 2-0 up v Borussia Monchengladbach. Real Madrid have an away goals advantage, too, with a 1-0 lead over Atalanta.

The latter of those 2nd legs does have the potential to get interesting, if the Italians can get on the scoresheet. Despite not having a vintage season by any means, Real Madrid have put together some decent results recently – unbeaten in the their last eight, winning six.

On the betting front, I’m all about Leagues One & Two this evening. The games kick off at 7pm…

Narrow winning margins, 1-0 Correct Scores, and low-goals potential all pop up in the recent form and stats for these three games:

Blackpool v Burton

  • In the League One stats on our website, Blackpool are ranked No.1 for Under 2.5 Goals. With a 79% home strike-rate for that bet
  • 8 of Blackpool’s last 9 games have gone Under 2.5 Goals

That low-goals record informs much of my opinion on this game. Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink’s Burton have won six in a row, and eight of their last nine. But the Tangerines are tough to beat. Only 2nd place Peterborough (2) have had fewer home defeats than Neil Critchley’s side (3).

If you’re after some long-shot fun in this game, then these Correct Score and Scorecast options might be of interest to you…

  • 7 of Blackpool’s 14 league wins have been by the 1-0 Correct Score

Five of those seven 1-0 wins have paid out on one of these two Scorecast combinations: Blackpool 1-0 & Jerry Yates the scorer is 25/1 with Betfred. Blackpool 1-0 & Sullay Kaikai is 28/1.

Oxford Utd v Doncaster

Both of these clubs have got designs on promotion, but form has fallen away of late. Oxford have won just one of their last seven; Doncaster just two of their last nine.

Again, the home team anchor the potential for this one to be low-scoring with a narrow score-line:

  • Oxford are 5th in our League One table for Under 2.5 Goals, with that bet paying out in 6 of their last 7 games

Doncaster have failed to score in their last two matches, drawing 0-0 v Northampton, and losing 1-0 at Crewe.

Salford v Colchester

Salford won the EFL Trophy at the weekend, beating higher-league opponents Portsmouth in a penalty shootout. The final ended 0-0 after normal time & extra time.

In the previous three rounds of the EFL Trophy, Salford’s next match went Under 2.5 Goals each time.

  • 6 of Salford’s last 7 games in League Two have gone Under 2.5 Goals

Visitors Colchester have a 61% away record for Under 2.5 Goals this season. They’ve failed to score in their last three games, and have drawn a blank in front of goal in a woeful nine of their last 12.

Winning Margin combinations…

There are various ways to play those three targeted games today.

A treble on Under 2.5 Goals pays around 7/2 (4.5).

You’ll get between 4/1 – 6/1 each for the 1-0 Correct Scores, with that option the home-team favourite in all three games (Blackpool, Oxford, Salford).

I’m taking the Winning Margin route, splitting a stake four ways with a Trixie (three doubles & a treble) on the one-goal margin of victory for the three headline teams. The treble pays 43/1; any two gives an overall profit.

  • 10 of Oxford’s 14 league victories this season have been by a one-goal winning margin
  • 10 of Blackpool’s 14 league wins have been by a one-goal margin of victory
  • Salford have won 13 times in League Two this season – 7 have been by a one-goal winning margin, with 6 x 1-0 Correct Scores

You can view Winning Margin figures for every team on the Team Stats pages on our website:


From the analysis above, here are my picks for today…

  • Three EFL games listed above – TRIXIE. WINNING MARGIN – BY 1 GOAL: BLACKPOOL, OXFORD & SALFORD – best prices with Bet365, Boylesports, Skybet

I’ll be back tomorrow, when it’s Bayern Munich v Lazio and Chelsea v Atletico Madrid in the Champions League.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues