Thursday 25th February 2021
In Across the Leagues today:
At this stage of last season’s competition, seven of the 16 Europa League 2nd Leg matches went Over 3.5 Goals.
The year before, six out of 16 delivered for Over 3.5 Goals backers.
This evening, my research leads me to four games that tick the box as high-goals contenders. See below.
Last week, eight of the 16 matches in the Round of 32, 1st Legs produced 4+ Total Goals. It was a record-breaking night, with 59 goals the highest match-day total since the tournament took on its current format in 2009/10.
Sporting Index are running a spread betting market for this week’s Europa League action. Tottenham already played their 2nd Leg last night, winning 4-0. Meaning there are 15 matches to be decided this evening, adding on to yesterday’s 4 goals…
The spread quote for ‘Total Goals’ in the ‘Midweek UEFA Europa League Aggregates’ market at Sporting Index is set at 50 to Buy. That means that a Buy (eg. to bet high) would require 51 or more goals to generate a profit. And 51 just so happens to be the total scored in last season’s 2nd Legs at this stage of the competition.
To make a worthwhile profit there then, you’d probably need tonight’s games to generate another tally to trouble the record books. And is always the caveat with spread bets, the risk is an outcome that swings dramatically the other way, resulting in a large loss.
In the Scorers notebook, I can remind you of the five players highlighted in last week’s Europa League preview:
And one name to add to that list of attackers today:
In today’s Anytime Scorer markets, the bookies are betting around Evens (2.0) each for the like of Fernandes, Vardy, and Aubameyang. With Daka 8/5 (2.6) at best. And Ibrahimovic odds-on at 7/10 (1.7).
I’m focusing on the Total Goals markets for tonight’s matches. With these four standing out as in particular to me, as high-goals contenders:
Rangers v Royal Antwerp (5.55pm)
Over 2.5 Goals is 8/15 (1.53).
Over 3.5 Goals is 11/8 (2.38).
Hoffenheim v Molde (5.55pm)
Over 2.5 Goals is 1/3 (1.33)
Over 3.5 Goals is 4/5 (1.8).
Bayer Leverkusen v Young Boys (8pm)
Over 2.5 Goals is 4/9 (1.44).
Over 3.5 Goals is Evens (2.0).
PSV Eindhoven v Olympiakos (8pm)
Over 2.5 Goals is 4/6 (1.67).
Over 3.5 Goals is 13/8 (2.63).
Take your pick…
There’s lots to choose from in the Goals markets today. Both Teams to Score, Over 2.5 Goals, Over 3.5 Goals… not to mention Anytime and First Goalscorer potential, with some entertaining matches expected.
I’ve included the individual odds for Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 Goals above, if the Singles or any Multiples appeal to you.
A combo on the four featured games to all go Over 2.5 Goals just about touches 4/1 (William Hill).
I’m playing aggressive – as is my go-to stance in situations like this – with a straight-up four-fold acca on the Over 3.5 Goals combo, at 20/1+. The stats are there, and the 2nd-Leg factor adds urgency and attacking incentive for several of the teams involved, too…
From the analysis above, here is my pick for today…
I’ll be back on Friday afternoon with your Weekend Preview email.
Enjoy the football…