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Identifying the Scorer value this weekend...

Friday 2nd October 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Price is king…
  • Player pick for tonight…
  • Danny for the book at 20/1…

Identifying the Scorer value this weekend…

Youth prevailed last night. The 17-year-old teenager that came up in yesterday’s analysis, Ansu Fati, opened the scoring for Barcelona in a 3-0 win at Celta Vigo.

That was Barca’s first win at Vigo since 2015. Teenager Fati has now delivered the first goal in two out of two La Liga games this season, finding the net three times in total.

Can Fati take Messi’s crown?

As we commented at the start of the campaign, the bookies are being yellow in terms of the 2020/21 Top Goalscorer market in Spain. Betting Win Only for La Liga, and therefore, removing the chance to go after an outsider for the Each Way places.

Fati was 50/1 outright on day one. The Spanish teenager is now around 20/1. The man the bookmakers all fear, Lionel Messi, remains the odds-on favourite at 4/7 (1.57). Messi has one goal so far.

Celta Vigo striker Iago Aspas was my selection in last night’s match. The 33-year-old stood out at 8/1 to score first. He drew a blank this time. As it stands, four games in, Aspas has scored all three of his team’s goals this season.

Vigo are in action again this weekend, travelling to Osasuna on Sunday morning. This time, Aspas is back to the ‘standard’ quotes we listed yesterday, down to around 4/1 for First Goalscorer.

Price is king…

Any match-day, any weekend, you could reel off a long list of players to look out for in the First & Anytime Scorer markets.

On our website, we have stats in those two categories taking in every scorer across 17 different leagues.

When it comes to the picks that you’ll find in your weekly Across the Leagues emails, price rules above all…

For example, most Saturdays of the season, you’ll find a Championship striker such as Norwich’s Teemu Pukki at around Even Money (2.0) to score Anytime.

That was my price estimate before I ventured onto Oddschecker this morning. Sure enough, Pukki is priced at 21/20 (2.05) in general to score v Derby County tomorrow. He’s odds-on at Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, as short as 4/6 (1.67).

We want to be betting when the prices look to be in our favour. We are searching for value.

Sometimes that can mean latching onto a player in-form, finding the net frequently within a recent sample of games; but crucially, still priced as if he was less prolific.

A dedicated penalty-taker is another example of a good man to look out for in these markets.

Two players tick those boxes this weekend, both available at good prices to find the net…

Christian Noboa on Sunday…

In the Russian Premier League, we return to Sochi’s penalty-taking midfielder, Christian Noboa. He’s landed the Anytime Scorer odds in a remarkable seven out of nine games so far. Making him the top scorer in the division, and the leading man for Anytime payouts.

Backing Noboa at this weekend’s price of 11/4 (3.75) in every game so far, you’d be showing a 191% ROI to level stakes.

Lewis Ferguson tonight…

There’s also a decent body of early form in the book in the Scottish Premiership, where they are also nine rounds into the 2020/21 season.

Aberdeen are odds-on 8/15 (1.53) favourites for the home win v bottom club St Mirren this evening. Dons midfielder Lewis Ferguson has scored four times across six appearances so far, with all four strikes coming from the penalty spot. He’s as big as 5/1 (6.0) to find the net again.

Danny for the book at 20/1…

Completing our scorer-centric analysis this week, I want to add Danny Ings to our 2020/21 Top Goalscorer selections in the Premier League.

We’ve already got 18/1 Jamie Vardy looking good after a fast start for Leicester (now 5/1), as well as Fulham’s Alexsandar Mitrovic as a 100/1 outsider. You can read our initial preview featuring those two pre-season picks here.

Ings was joint-2nd in the Premier League chart last season, with 22 goals. That’s brilliant going for a player at a club well outside of the Top 6. Southampton finished 11th in 2019/20.

The Saints have started the new campaign with one win from three games. So far, Ings has scored 100% of his team’s goals, with one penalty, and two from open play.

With injury troubles hopefully behind him for now, Danny’s move from Liverpool has turned out to be a very good one. He’s the main man in front of goal for Southampton. (Which was never going to be the case at Anfield, with Mo Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino the impenetrable attacking line-up.)

Despite making a scoring start to the season, Danny Ings can still be backed at 20/1 14/1 in the Top Goalscorer market, with four places available, Each Way.

That season-long approach appeals to me, rather than trying to follow him too many times in the match-day markets, where he’s now often the favourite. For example, Ings is odds-on to score against West Brom this weekend, at 4/6 (1.67) and 8/11 (1.73).

Today’s picks

Russian Premier League

PFC Sochi v Rostov
Sunday 2.30pm

  • Anytime Scorer: Christian Noboa @ 11/4 (3.75) with Bet365, VBet, 23/10 (3.3) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 21/10 (3.1) Betway

Scottish Premiership

Aberdeen v St Mirren
TONIGHT 7.45pm

  • Anytime Scorer: Lewis Ferguson @ 5/1 (6.0) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 15/4 (4.75) Bet365, VBet, 13/4 (4.25) 888 Sport, Unibet

Premier League 2020/21

Top Goalscorer:

  • Danny Ings @ 20/1 Each Way with Bet365, 16/1 William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet, 14/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Paddy Power, Betfred, Boylesports, Betway

Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-4 places.

I’ll be back next week with more angles, analysis and advice for you.

Enjoy the weekend football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues