Thursday 10th September 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
I received a tip in my inbox this morning.
The bet is for PSG to beat Lens in French Ligue 1 tonight. The bet is odds-on, quoted at 7/10 (1.7).
And… that’s it.
Which you might find a bit strange. Considering that a chunk of the PSG side will be missing this evening, after a coronavirus outbreak spread through some of the squad. Kylian Mbappe and Neymar, the world’s two most expensive players, won’t be playing.
Also (if it’s allowed to go ahead, which isn’t guaranteed), tonight will be PSG’s first league game of the season. The start of their French title defence was delayed due to the Paris club’s involvement in the Champions League final a couple of weeks ago. Everyone else in the division has already kicked off.
Here's the thing…
Now, I’m not saying that PSG won’t win, despite all that. After all, they’re playing a newly promoted side, with Lens back in the French top-flight for the first time since 2015.
Nor am I saying that the odds-on 7/10 (1.7) price is a bad one. Indeed, last time PSG travelled to Lens, the Parisians were shorter in the Match Result betting, at 1/3 (1.33). And the last time PSG played an away game in Ligue 1, back in February, they were 1/2 (1.5) to win at Amiens (and drew 4-4).
But consider this: the email that landed in my inbox didn’t tell me any of that information. I found all that other stuff out myself. (Not that it’s hard to notice in the sports news that one of the world’s biggest clubs has got a coronavirus outbreak.)
Ask yourself this…
I’m telling you about this today, because, with the new 2020/21 season kicking off, I wanted to make sure you and I are on the same page when it comes to how we’ll be approaching the matches and markets together in the weeks and months to come, here at Across the Leagues.
It boils down to this:
If you were about to place a bet on PSG winning that game tonight, would you rather…
Know that PSG have players missing due to coronavirus, including two of their star men. Be aware that this was PSG’s first game of the season. And know that these odds were larger than the usual price for a PSG league game against an unfancied opponent?
Bet blindly with absolutely no information or knowledge whatsoever?
Those are your options.
The brown envelope…
I call option B) the ‘brown envelope’:
Here’s the bet. There you go. Team A to beat Team B.
That’s it. That’s your lot. Win or lose. Happy or bust.
Is this what you want? Are you happy with that?
Don’t you want to know why Team A should be backed, at that particular price, and in that particular match?
Wouldn’t you like some kind of explanation as to why you should be risking your hard-earned money?
Maybe the other team have got injury (or illness) problems… maybe their star striker is suspended… perhaps they’ve lost 10 games in a row.
And even if it comes in, what have you got? A small return and no understanding of what made it a potential bet. Should you back Team A again? Win or lose you are left with nothing to increase your understanding of betting on that team, and that league.
I’m not a tipster….
You won’t get the ‘brown envelope’ bets from me. Because I’m not a tipster.
I’m an analyst. And I present all my findings, informed opinions, research and conclusions to you, in Plain English.
What you can expect from me this season…
Sure, every now and then, a tipster will give you a winner. In fact, they’ll probably give you way more winners than I ever will. If you’re not bothered about how short or lacking in value the odds are, that is.
There are no shortcuts to being a successful bettor.
When it comes to football betting, let me tell you where I’m at:
There’s no magic system.
No miracle formula.
No overnight riches.
There’s no crystal ball.
There’s no bookie loophole.
No ‘barely legal’ betting code.
There’s no football ‘cash machine.’
If phrases like that set your bulls**t detector off, then good. Excellent. You’re in the right place.
Because if you can ignore the hype, and tune out all that noise. If you can block out the fountain of nonsense spouted endlessly into your inbox and text messages.
Then there really are ways to make money from football. And what’s more, you can increase your enjoyment of the sport, and bolster your football & betting knowledge, while you’re at it…
That’s what I’ll be aiming to do every week, in your Across the Leagues emails. I’ll be sharing my research, and findings. My conclusions, and opinions. My thoughts, and the facts.
And, as well as my 15 years & counting of experience in the football betting markets, you also get all of this…
On our website, you’ll have access to unique football betting stats covering Match Results, Goals, Cards & Bookings, Corners, Scorers, Referees… for 17 leagues. Enabling you to garner as much information and knowledge as possible, before every round of games, and before placing any bets.
More losers than winners…
Across the Leagues deals with quality not quantity in terms of bet advice.
Taking my approach, hunting for off-the-beaten track bets, you’ll have more losers than winners.
Yes, that’s right, more losing bets than winning ones. You don’t hear that very often, do you?
The wins will be at prices that make the waits worthwhile.
Following my service requires big-picture thinking. I can't promise you a winning weekend. You need to be committed for the long term. But if you are, then we can aim to build season after season of positive betting returns.
If we place our season-long Top Scorer bets at 20/1, 33/1, and 100/1...
When we get our league pre-season Outright Winner... Promotion... or Relegation picks down... or FA Cup, Champions League or Europa League bets... scooping up the early-bird value.
Or when we make a move on an eye-catching 4/1, 8/1, or 50/1 price opportunity in any number of potential match markets across the footballing world...
We only need the occasional success to put us in front. We won't win every time. We can't win every time. We aim to win in the long term.
Across the Leagues is also a hype-free zone…
If you're fed up of internet tipsters shouting 'BOOM!!!!' at you every time they've picked an odds-on favourite to win at home, or chucked three of them in a match treble – then stick with me.
There will be no talk of 'nailed-on' bets here. There will be no 'can't lose' proclamations.
There will be no hysterics. No pyrotechnics. No fists through walls when we lose. No exaggerations, no hyperbole.
I’m not going to make any wild claims or crazy promises. We might land a 6/1 winner next week. Or a 10/1 shot next weekend. Or a 20/1 pick next month. Or a 40/1 winner at the European Championships next summer.
But what I can guarantee you is this: Across the Leagues will always be giving you informed betting advice, with the quality control set to maximum.
Continuing my mission to arm you with the most powerful betting weapon there is: knowledge.
Are you with me? Then I’ll see you tomorrow…
The new season kicks off in the Premier League & Football League this weekend. We’ll be looking at the League Two and Spanish La Liga markets tomorrow, as we continue to build up our book of attractive, ante post, Each Way prices for 2020/21.
I’ve got a new members-only email address for you to contact me on this season, too:
Enjoy the football…