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Best foot forward at 20/1...

Tuesday 9th March 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Champions League golden boys…
  • Cobblers are scoring again…
  • 5/1 for what Oldham do best…

Best foot forward at 20/1…

The Monday night football delivered two more Under 2.5 Goals score-lines…

Chelsea 2 Everton 0
West Ham 2 Leeds 0

That makes it eight out of 10 games Under 2.5 Goals in the latest round of the Premier League. And last weekend wasn’t a one-off. This low-goals trend has bedded-in over the past couple of weeks:

  • 21 of the last 27 Premier League games have paid out on Under 2.5 Goals. That’s a 78% strike-rate since 27th Feb 

Blame Bale and Kane…

Last Friday I flagged up the odds for all 10 top-flight fixtures to go Under 2.5, at 672/1. That whopper didn’t end up being too far off, with the two culprits being Leicester’s 2-1 win at Brighton, and Spurs beating Palace, 4-1…

Well done to Across the Leagues member Paul, who emailed in to say he played those 10 games in multiples, and ended up with a modest profit from a batch of small-stakes five-folds:

“I went for the 10 games under 2.5 goals and lost £10 however I covered with a five-fold 252 x 5p = 12.60. This returned me £57.07… If we do the same next week except 9 out of 10, Bale, Kane etc need to be avoided they are too entertaining!!”

Champions League golden boys…

The Champions League continues this week with the first batch of Last 16, 2nd legs. With places in the quarter finals at stake, tonight’s matches are:

Borussia Dortmund v Sevilla (aggregate: 3-2)

Juventus v Porto (aggregate: 1-2)

Price is king, and when it comes to today’s European action, there’s little that’s getting me excited. It’ll likely be a different story in some of the other 2nd legs, and when the quarter finals and semis come along.

Dortmund have three away goals to their name. In the To Qualify market, Sevilla are 9/2 (5.5) to pull off the comeback and make it through. With the German side’s firepower, it’s hard to make too much a case for that particular upset…

Dortmund’s golden boy Erling Braut Haaland is odds-on to score, 5/6 (1.83) at best. So far in his sparkling young career, the 20-year-old has bagged 18 goals in 13 Champions League appearances.

Juventus have a 1-2 deficit to overturn. But that doesn’t hold much sway with the bookmakers. The Italian champions are odds-on to get the job done, at 8/13 (1.62) To Qualify.

Juve’s own star man, 36-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo is also 8/13 (1.62) to score.

In the First Goalscorer betting, Haaland is 3/1 (4.0) tops, with Ronnie at 11/5 (3.2).

I’ve got my eye on much bigger prices in the English Football League today…

Best foot forward for the Cobblers…

Northampton Town have started scoring again.

A couple of weeks ago we discussed the Cobblers’ woes. In a relegation fight in League One. Parting ways with manager Keith Curle. And at one stage between January and February, scoring the grand total of just one goal in nine games in all competitions.

Former Brackley Town boss Jon Brady is now in charge in a caretaker capacity. Recent outings have shown some hope for the springtime run-in…

Northampton have started March with a pair of home wins, both against teams above them in the table.

A 2-0 victory over Plymouth was followed by another three points at the weekend. With Saturday’s 4-1 win over Portsmouth prompting one Cobblers’ fan that I know to bombard me with a WhatsApp message and video clip each time those four first-half goals went in.

You can’t get too carried away with two wins. After all, before this month, Northampton had gone 11 in the league without tasting victory. But they have moved out of the relegation zone for now, and this evening’s trip to Charlton could come at a good time…

Charlton v Northampton
League One, 7pm

  • Charlton have lost 4 in a row at home – and are winless in their last 8 at the Valley

I love a bit of mind games from the managers. Here’s Brady stirring the pot ahead of this evening’s trip to London…

“We are the underdogs again. Charlton may be lacking in form but they are an ex-Premier League team and they are expected to be in the play-offs at the very least”

Considering the Addicks were last seen in the Premier League in 2007, that’s probably pushing it a bit.

In the Match Result market, Cobblers’ price has come in a little this morning. From a solid 3/1 (4.0) yesterday, the away win is now 11/4 (3.75) in general, and trimmed to 5/2 (3.5) at Skybet.

Always on the quest for the very best opportunities, one price that hasn’t dropped since the markets went up is that of Ryan Watson to score…

The Northampton midfielder is enjoying something of a purple patch right now:

  • Ryan Watson has scored 6 goals in his last 5 games 

During this spell, Watson has landed Anytime Scorer bets four times out of five. Accounting for six of his team’s 10 goals. And he’s delivered in the First Goalscorer market in each of the last three matches…

Given the prices available today, that streak is one that’s well worth following. Watson is a top-price 15/2 (8.5) to score Anytime, and a standout 20/1 (21.0) to score First. At those odds, and with the recent form in mind, it could pay to cover both.

Also worth knowing – Watson is the Cobblers’ leading man for free kicks around the box at the moment, and scored a pearler last weekend.

  • Note: in the bookies’ Scorer lists for this game, don’t confuse Ryan Watson with Charlton’s Ben Watson 

What Oldham do best…

Looking at the League Two pages on our website, there’s one area that jumps out a mile for me for Oldham – their Goals stats…

We have the Latics ranked No.1 in the division for Over 2.5 Goals (73% away record), and Both Teams to Score (also 73% away strike-rate).

Our Totals tables show Oldham are also the top scoring team on the road. And the worst team in the division for Clean Sheets, with just two all season, from 32 league games (6%).

All of which goes in the mix for tonight’s game…

Port Vale v Oldham
League Two, 7pm

Port Vale are 21st of 24 teams in the League Two table, but up in 8th place when it comes to Total Goals scored. As with Oldham, the back line is a problem, too – with just eight Clean Sheets from their 33 games (24%).

Vale come into tonight’s match on the back of three consecutive defeats. They’ve won just one of their last 11. And in that time, three of the six losses that they’ve suffered have delivered on their opponent in the Win & Both Teams to Score market…

That’s a key stat here. Oldham are in 1st place on our ‘Win & BTTS’ table for League Two:

  • Oldham have won 7 away games this season. All 7 of them have paid out on the Match Result & Both Teams to Score option

Oldham are 16th in the league, but only four teams have won more away games in 2020/21 – and three of those are the current Top 3 sides in League Two.

Take your pick…

Over 2.5 Goals is 19/20 (1.95).

Both Teams to Score is 8/11 (1.73).

The away win is 9/4 (2.5).

One thing Oldham’s stats tell us this campaign is, if you’re going to back them, then back them to Win & Both Teams to Score – which is always a bigger price. Odds of 5/1 (6.0) appeal today.

League Two Match Results Stats...

  • Elsewhere in League Two tonight, there’s a big game at the top end of the table. Our 50/1 Each Way pick Morecambe (4th) go to Forest Green Rovers (3rd)

TODAY’S PICKS

From the analysis above, here are my picks for today…

  • Charlton v Northampton – ANYTIME SCORER: RYAN WATSON @ 15/2 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway
  • Charlton v Northampton – FIRST GOALSCORER: RYAN WATSON @ 20/1 Betway, 16/1 Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred
  • Port Vale v Oldham – WIN & BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE: OLDHAM @ 5/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports, Marathonbet

I’ll be back tomorrow, with a focus on the next two Champions League 2nd legs, Liverpool v RB Leipzig, and PSG v Barcelona.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues