Wednesday 23rd October 2024

In Across the Leagues today:

• Champions League marquee match-up…
• Player picks…
• 55/1 for the jackpot… 

Bet Builder for Barcelona v Bayern Munich tonight…

I have some eye-catching stats to tell you about ahead of the weekend. But for today, we’re all about the big-odds Bet Builder business for the headline match of the evening in the Champions League…

Barcelona v Bayern Munich

8pm, live on TNT Sports

The bookmakers have this one as a pick ‘em, with Barca and Bayern priced at around 6/4 (2.5) each for the win. The draw tops out at 3/1 (4.0) with a couple of firms. It’s an intriguing fixture, but hard to make a case for adding the draw to our latest chunky combo (although backing the draw is a tactic that has served us very well in these Bet Builders before)...

None of the last nine meetings between these clubs has ended in stalemate. Indeed, Bayern Munich have won each of the last six contests. While Barcelona are yet to draw a game in any competition this season (P12: W10 L2).

We are constructing our combo with Player picks here…

Barca manager Hansi Flick and star striker Robert Lewandowski are coming up against their former club. Lewandowski needs little introduction anymore, but if you want the most up-to-date stats to convince you: he’s scored seven goals in his last three games (2, 3, 2). The Polish veteran is also top scorer in Spain’s La Liga this season, with 12 goals - twice as many as his nearest competitor.

Likewise, Harry Kane for Bayern. Harry knocked in a hat-trick at the weekend, his sixth since moving to Germany at the start of last season. Kane is top scorer in the early 2024/25 Champions League chart, with all four of his goals coming in one game.

Lewandowski and Kane are around Evens (2.0) each to Score Anytime tonight.

Onto the Player Cards market now, where the prices can really churn up a Bet Builder to make things exciting…

Our old friend Dayot Upamecano has to go on the list here. The big French defender is clearly a class act; you don’t get to his level of the sport without having some serious abilities. But the fact remains, he’s a card liability:

• Upamecano has been booked in 3 of his last 5 games, and is Bayern’s most-carded man in the German Bundesliga this season. He was booked in their most recent clash with Barcelona, too

I’ve called him ‘clumsy’ before. And while Dayot is most certainly a better centre-back than I ever was (although you’ll never take my village-side Under 11’s Players’ Player of the Year award from me - voted for by my peers). Upamecano does have a weakness in that he can become rash or reckless when caught with a man ahead of him in a footrace, or in a one-on-one situation. Might be a few of those tonight.

The other player I’m interested in for a card here is also a Munich man…

Joao Palhinha is set to come into midfield to replace the injured Aleksandar Pavlovic. The Portuguese player has been booked in each of his last two starts for club and country. Last season in the Premier League, he was Fulham’s most-carded player. In fact, he was the joint-most carded man in the whole division (13 yellows).

You can get around 2/1 for Palhinha to be Shown a Card this evening, and bigger for Upamecano, with Unibet & co a standout 19/5 (4.8).

Oddschecker’s Bet Builder tool helpfully lists the markets we want today (not always the case). Although as ever, it’s worth me pointing out once again that Oddschecker is rarely exhaustive. For example, they’re not showing Betway on their coupon - no great loss in this case, as the combo comes up at just 18/1 with them. However, Betfair Sportsbook at 45/1 is very much worth knowing about…

Unibet and fellow Kambi sportsbook firms are 55/1 as I write (see below), with Bet365 at 45/1, and Paddy Power at 41/1:

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TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

Barcelona v Bayern Munich

BET BUILDER:
Anytime Scorer: Harry Kane
Anytime Scorer: Robert Lewandowski
Player to be Carded: Joao Palhinha
Player to be Carded: Dayot Upamecano

• Bet Builder: 4 legs as listed above @ 55/1 Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet, 45/1 Betfair Sportsbook, Bet365, 40/1 Paddy Power

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Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues