Tuesday 10th January 2023

In Across the Leagues today:

• A cheeky move from Bet365…
• 33/1 Duk at the double for Aberdeen…
• Game in hand for Shankland and Hearts… 

Brutal Each Way terms! Are Bet365 running scared?

Well, I don’t think I’ve ever seen this before…

When a season is up and running, we’re used to seeing the number of Each Way places in the Outright markets being reduced. Say, from four to three places in the top scorer betting.

Or the bookies shifting a League Winner or Top Goalscorer market to Win Only if a clear favourite surges ahead (see: Manchester City and Erling Haaland in the Premier League this season).

But I don’t think I’ve ever seen a bookmaker shunt the Each Way places terms in such a drastic and cynical way as Bet365 have done this week…

The standard, across the board place terms for the FA Cup Outright Winner market are 1/2 odds 1-2 places. In other words, a half-the-odds payout if your team reaches the final.

Those 1/2 odds terms are still the general consensus today. But after the weekend’s 3rd round action, Bet365 have taken the decision to move to the much reduced, rarely if ever seen terms, of 1/8 (EIGHTH) the odds for 1-2 places…

• NOTE: If you got on our FA Cup pick Brighton at 33/1 or 28/1 with the advised bookies last week (or indeed at 25/1 with Bet365 on Friday), then this doesn’t affect you. The best 1/2 odds Each Way terms are locked-in if you took them at the time

But anyone looking to get involved with an FA Cup Outright Winner bet between now and the end of the season should steer well clear of that revised and much-reduced Bet365 market…

For example:

After winning 5-1 at Middlesbrough at the weekend, Brighton are now 14/1 at best for the trophy. With the likes of Skybet, BetVictor, Unibet, Betfred, Boylesports, and Betway all playing ball and sticking to the industry standard 1/2 odds 1-2 place terms.

Compare that to Bet365’s cheeky 1/8 odds. The numbers say it all:

• 14/1 shot reaches the final at standard 1/2 odds terms = 7/1 (8.0) Each Way payout

• 14/1 shot reaches the final at naughty 1/8 odds terms = 7/4 (2.75) Each Way payout (ouch)

Here’s today’s tight-fisted 1/8 odds market with Bet365:

Running scared? No, just plain greedy…

In moving to 1/8 odds instead of the 1/2, Bet365 could be seen to be running scared of a favourite like Man City romping home, defeating an Each Way placed outsider in the final… or of course a big-odds underdog winning the whole thing.

I’d say it looks like Bet365 want to have their cake and eat it. I reckon this is a simple yet devious plan to lure in Each Way stakes from unfussy or uninformed punters. As opposed to simply shifting the market to Win Only, a move which might deter many bettors straight off the bat.

The industry leaders have dropped the ball here…

Long-time readers will know I don’t tend to indulge in bookie-bashing. Only when it’s warranted. And today is one such occasion!

When I first started out in this game, an odds compiler friend & colleague of mine used to refer to the Stoke firm as ‘Bet £3.65’ - because a paltry stake was all you’d be able to get on with them at any kind of decent price…

That was some 15 years ago. These days, Bet365 are the established UK industry leader for online sports betting - no question about it. Their site is great, and they hold top prices way, way more than they used to.

Bet365 are also a clear frontrunner for the stats markets that we favour, always a website to rely on when looking for a Total Cards or Corner Handicap market, for example.

But those 1/8 odds FA Cup terms need calling out. If you’re thinking of placing an Outright Winner bet on the cup this season, make sure you get 1/2 odds Each Way for 1-2 places.

Rant over. Now back to our betting business….

33/1 Duk at the double…

A few notes on some of our open 2022/23 positions:

• 66/1 Brentford got knocked out at home to West Ham, but the aforementioned 33/1 Brighton (Each Way at 1/2 ODDS 1-2 places) are through to the 4th round of the FA Cup, and now 14/1 for the trophy. The Seagulls have been given a home draw, where they will face the winner of next week’s replay between Wolves and Liverpool

• Top Goalscorers - Each Way: last week we noted that 80/1 League One pick Sam Nombe (Exeter), and 20/1 pre-season Scottish Premiership selection Lawrence Shankland (Hearts) are both going well. Shankland has a game in hand on leader Kyogo Furuhashi (Celtic), with Hearts at home v St Mirren this Friday night. Nombe & Exeter’s next game is at home v bottom club Forest Green on Saturday

• Our other Scottish Premiership top scorer pick, Luis ‘Duk’ Lopes at 33/1 Each Way, scored a brace for Aberdeen at the weekend. Duk is now on 9 league goals for the season, just 2 off the Top 3, Each Way places. Aberdeen’s next league outing is at Hearts next Wednesday

Here are the latest Scottish Premiership Top Scorer stats from our website, with our men Shankland and Duk highlighted:

I’ll be back on Friday with your Weekend Preview.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues