Tuesday 13th September 2022

In Across the Leagues today:

• EFL and Champions League tonight…
• Each Way top scorer pick…
• Robert’s return written in the stars?

Cam’s the man at 50/1 and 33/1…

The football returns this week, with almost a full programme. Three of the upcoming weekend Premier League fixtures have been postponed, along with Arsenal’s midweek match in the Europa League. But apart from that, with the Queen’s funeral coming up on Monday 19th, we have pretty much the usual sporting schedule back on our screens this week.

That includes Champions League Matchday 2 taking place today and tomorrow (see below). And EFL action, with League One my focus today…

Each Way top scorer pick…

I’ve had my eye on today’s Top Goalscorer bet for a while now. I was all set to pull the trigger at 50/1 and 33/1 last Friday. But then the weekend Football League matches got called off, so I decided to wait, in case of any injury news.

The player I’ve been tracking is Cameron Brannagan of Oxford United, in League One.

In our pre-season Top Goalscorer research , we noted that penalty takers can be worth their weight in gold in the scorer markets. I remember the name from when he was a youth player at Liverpool. But Brannagan first really came on to my radar when he started knocking in the penalties for Oxford…

Last season, the midfielder found the net 14 times in League One, with five of those strikes coming from the penalty spot – including FOUR in one game (!). That four-pens-in-a-game stat stuck with me, as it came up in my local pub quiz earlier this year. My teammates declared me MVP. I’ll take success wherever I can get it. If it comes up in your pub quiz, the match was Gillingham 2 Oxford 7 in January 2022. Anyway, moving on…

While four converted penalties in one game is obviously an anomaly. The point is that Cameron Brannagan is on 12-yards duty for Oxford – and that includes being ahead of lead striker Matty Taylor in the pecking order. Taylor doesn’t do pens. He took one in League One last season – and missed it. The 30-year-old forward is in his fourth season at Oxford, and to date, that’s the only penalty kick that he’s taken in the league.

Add in the fact that Matty Taylor is one of a number of Oxford players that have been on the injury list this season (due back now, but no league goals so far), and the case continues for backing 26-year-old midfielder Brannagan.

• Cameron Brannagan has scored 4 goals in his last 3 games in all competitions (one pen)

• Brannagan has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 5 of his last 8 games overall

• With 7 games played and 4 goals, Brannagan currently sits joint-2nd in the League One 2022/23 Top Goalscorer chart

In recent seasons we’ve done well by backing players Each Way at odds in the 50/1 – 33/1 bracket. And with 1/4 odds terms for the top four places in this top scorer market, Brannagan could prove a bit of value for us here.

• Best odds: if you can get it, 10Bet, SportNation & LiveScoreBet (all powered by the same sportsbook I believe) are a top-price 50/1. From the mainstream firms, Bet365, Skybet, and William Hill all have 33/1. In comparison, BetVictor go just 14/1

Backing a midfielder might not be an obvious choice, but there’s more to Cameron’s attacking threat than scoring penalties. His six goals in all comps so far in this campaign have been spread out as follows: two pens, two free kicks, and two from open play.

I’ve so far lived to regret not getting behind Sam Hoskins of Northampton as a top-scorer outside bet this season (went off at 40/1, currently top scorer in League Two with eight goals…). Let’s get on Brannagan with price on our side today.

• The odds also catch the eye for the Oxford man to score at Plymouth this evening – with 4/1+ (5.0+) looking particularly good in the Anytime Scorer market

The current League One Scorers chart on our website:

View all our stats for 17 leagues at:

www.acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Robert’s return written in the stars?

I have a longstanding, loose unwritten rule that ‘Evens is good’ when it comes to backing genuinely world-class strikers in the Anytime Scorer markets. Especially in big games…

That club used to consist exclusively of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. The likes of Robert Lewandowski, Karim Benzema, and Mo Salah have muscled their way in in recent years. And for the new kids on the block, PSG superstar Kylian Mbappe, and Manchester City’s scary-good new signing, Erling Braut Haaland.

Bayern Munich v Barcelona

Looking at this evening’s Champions League Matchday 2 fixtures, the name and story that jumps out is Lewandowski, newly of Barcelona, visiting his old club Bayern Munich…

Put simply, at Even Money or better (2.0+), I like Lewandowski to score here. Even allowing for bookie margins, he’s better than a 50-50 shot in my opinion.

And even if you remove the ‘added incentive’ angle of lining up against the club (and fans) he left under a bit of a cloud this summer. The Polish striker’s scoring stats are phenomenal, and have been for several years…

Before departing Germany this summer, Robert was top scorer in the German Bundesliga, five seasons running. He was Champions League top scorer in 2019/20, and finished 2nd last season. The 34-year-old has started life in Spain in familiar fashion:

• Lewandowski has scored 9 goals in his first 6 games for Barcelona – landing 5 Anytime Scorer bets in a row

Bayern haven’t been at their brilliant best recently, drawing their last two league games, 1-1 and 2-2, and conceding in their last two at home. Lewandowski and Barca will fancy their chances of getting on the scoresheet this evening.

TODAY’S PICKS

English League One 2022/23

• TOP GOALSCORER – EACH WAY: Cameron Brannagan @ 50/1 10Bet, SportNation, LiveScoreBet, 33/1 Bet365, Skybet, William Hill 

Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-4 places.

Plymouth v Oxford – tonight 7.45pm

• ANYTIME SCORER: Cameron Brannagan @ 9/2 (5.5) Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 17/4 (5.25) Betway, 4/1 (5.0) BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred

Bayern Munich v Barcelona – Champions League, tonight 8pm

• ANYTIME SCORER: Robert Lewandowski @ 6/5 (2.2) Bet365, 23/20 (2.15) Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 11/10 (2.1) Skybet, 10Bet, SportNation & LiveScoreBet, 21/20 (2.05) Boylesports, SpreadEx, Evens (2.0) BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred

I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at the standout stats and prices for Wednesday’s Champions League games.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues