Wednesday 25th November 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

• Champions League & Championship tonight…
• Liverpool v Atalanta…
• Millwall v Reading…

A 40/1 shot at Anfield…

Champions League nights clash with I’m a Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here!…

My wife has got Para-Olympic gold-medallist Hollie Arnold in the work sweepstake. I had to break the news that Arnold is a 150/1 rank outsider in the Outright Winner market, and the odds-on favourite for the First Elimination.

Reality TV betting is not my area of specialisation. But I do like to take the occasional interest in such things. My main observation this week: Shane Ritchie is drifting…

From a 3/1 and 4/1 favourite before the first episode, the EastEnders actor is out to 10/1 this morning. If you ask me, his class clown act is slipping a little, and the hunger is starting to produce a few mood swings.

With bookies offering 3 Each Way places at 1/5th the odds, my idea of a couple of outsiders who may hang in there in the Welsh castle ‘til the end are Coronation Street legend Beverley Callard at 33/1, and journalist Victoria Derbyshire (100/1 & 80/1). They’re both coming across well, and seem well thought of by their campmates.

Anyway…

The Champions League will be on my screen this evening. Let’s get back to the football…

Two out of three ain’t bad…

Last night was an encouraging start for our autumn & winter assault on the Win & Both Teams to Score markets.

As we approach the start of the middle-third of the season, with English Football League sides hitting the 15-game mark in early December. There’s a firm body of Goals and Match Result form to work with.

My 87/1 Win & BTTS treble ticked two of the three selections last night. Close but no cigar, as they say. All three of the nominated teams won their games, but Peterborough were the culprits in terms of the Both Teams to Score part of that combo…

Peterborough 1 Plymouth 0
Barrow 3 Oldham 4
Exeter 6 Colchester 1

Oldham were an 11/2 (6.5) shot in the Win & Both Teams to Score market, with Exeter at 3/1 (4.0).

A profit for Chris…

It was a good night for Across the Leagues member Chris, who put those three selections in a Trixie, which is made up of three doubles and a treble. With the double on Oldham & Exeter giving a very nice 24/1 payout…

“So so unlucky tonight Oliver. Peterborough !!!!!!!!!!!! Luckily for me I did the three selections in a £10 Trixie and generated a return of £255, so a lovely profit.”

Want to get in touch? I’m on: oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Remember, Both Teams to Score tables for 17 different leagues are available on our website, on the League Stats pages. And in the individual Team Stats, you’ll find home & away records for Win & Both Teams to Score for each team.

In your weekly emails and analysis, I’ll be using the stats and form to provide you with plenty more big-price Win & BTTS pointers in the weeks to come.

Scorers notebook…

Yesterday I flagged up 12 players to look out for in the Anytime Scorer markets, concentrating on form men, and penalty takers. Six of that dozen delivered, although none of the three that I highlighted at the biggest prices.

In the season-long Top Goalscorer markets, our 33/1 Each Way pick in League One gets a mention after scoring last night, too…

Jerry Yates featured in my League One 2020/21 ante post preview back at the start of September. Yates & his club Blackpool made a slow start to the season, but recently strung together four straight wins – and were 2-0 up at half time at Doncaster last night, before losing 3-2.

Yates opening the scoring from the penalty spot yesterday. The 24-year-old forward has now found the net in three of his last four league outings, putting him just two goals off the Top 4 (Each Way) places in the League One scorer charts.

If you’re not on Yates yet, you can still get 33/1 Each Way with Bet365 and Skybet. I reckon there’s plenty more to come from Yates & Blackpool as the season progresses.

Here’s half a dozen more penalty-takers and/ or noteworthy goal-scoring prospects for this evening’s Champions League games:

• Dusan Tadic (Ajax) – the skilful Serbian has scored in 6 games in a row for Ajax, including 3 penalties. Tadic found the net in his side’s 2-1 win at Midtjylland last time out in the Champions League. He’s around Evens (2.0) to find the net again in the reverse fixture at home this evening 

And the three men in our Each Way book for Champions League Top Goalscorer this season are all set to be in action this evening:

• Romelu Lukaku (Inter Milan) is in the book at 33/1. He’s 11/10 (2.1) to score v Real Madrid tonight

• Duvan Zapata (Atalanta) is another 33/1 shot in the ante post portfolio. Zapata is 15/8 (2.88) to score at Liverpool this evening (see below for more on that game)

• Raheem Sterling (Man City) is a top price 11/8 (2.38) to score with City travelling to Olympiakos for the early kick-off (5.55pm). Sterling is in the 2020/21 book at 20/1

Last night, odds-on star names Cristiano Ronaldo, Erling Braut Haaland (2 goals), and Ciro Immobile (2) all landed odds-on prices in the Anytime Scorer betting. This evening, two big names at similarly short prices are:

• Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich) – last season’s Champions League top scorer is just 1/4 (1.25) to score v Salzburg 

• Mo Salah (Liverpool) – possibly making his return from coronavirus tonight, the bookies are taking no chances and have Salah at 10/11 (1.91) at best to get straight back to scoring ways v Atalanta

Potential for crazy score-lines…

Some of Europe’s most prolific goal-scoring sides are on show this evening…

Borussia Monchengladbach won 6-0 at Shakhtar Donetsk on match-day 3. The Germans are at home for the reverse fixture today (5.55pm). With a brace of 2-2 draws in M’gladbach’s other group games so far, and Shakhtar posting a 3-2 win at Real Madrid on the opening night, the bookies are anticipating another high-goals game here. Over 2.5 Goals is a 1/2 (1.5) favourite.

The odds are even shorter for Bayern Munich v Salzburg. The German giants won 6-2 away in Austria last time. The oddsmakers are wary of a cricket score in Munich tonight, with Over 2.5 Goals at one of the shortest quotes you’ll see all season, at 1/5 (1.2) at best.

40/1 shot at Anfield…

Liverpool v Atalanta is 2/5 (1.4) for Over 2.5 Goals. And as I’ve been saying ever since the group-stage draw was made, I’ve had this fixture ear-marked for a potential rollercoaster score-line and the chance of a big-odds result…

Jurgen Klopp’s side won 5-0 in Italy on match-day 3. This is the game I’ll be tuning in to at 8pm…

As well as the Total Goals and Correct Score markets, a game with goal-potential like this draws me to the possibility of an outcome that we discussed in detail last week – the Half Time/ Full Time (HT/ FT) turnaround…

• Liverpool and Atalanta both featured in that HT/ FT analysis. You can read the article on the site here

As we noted then, Liverpool have conceded first at Anfield but come back to win the game on three occasions in the Premier League this season (from five home games).

Atalanta owe us nothing in this market after contributing to our 25/1 HT/ FT winner in the Champions League 2019/20 Knockouts over the summer (beaten 2-1 by PSG, after leading 0-1 at half time).

The Italian side had a rare 0-0 in Serie A at the weekend. It had been over a year – and 42 games in all competitions – since their last goalless draw. Famous last words maybe, but I can’t see this one ending in a bore draw…

Going into tonight’s game, Atalanta need the points. They are joint-2nd in the group on 4 points, level with Ajax and 5 pts behind Liverpool, with two rounds to go after today. The Anfield club can secure qualification for the Knockout rounds with a win tonight.

With huge rewards on offer for HT/ FT flip-flops, I make no apologies at all for going back to the well and taking those two options again today. Liverpool/ Atalanta is available at 40/1. With the vice-versa outcome, Atalanta/ Liverpool at 20/1.

Reading’s price catches the eye…

Last but not least, I’m looking to keep my eye in with the Win & Both Teams to Score opportunities in the Football League…

The odds for Millwall v Reading look a little harsh on the away side’s chances here. Yes, Reading have lost four in a row, after making a sensational start to the season. But this side could still end back in the top places of the Championship table by the end of the week. And they certainly have the scoring power to get back to winning ways…

Millwall have won just one of their last six games, so for starters, the home team, while respected, are no sure thing to get a result here.

Reading’s last six games have all gone Over 2.5 Goals. Two of their three away wins so far have paid out on Win & Both Teams to Score. And the Royals were 2-0 up at half time at Bournemouth on Saturday, before losing 4-2. Reading had a 4-2 win themselves at Blackburn last month.

Reading are 9/4 (3.25) for the away win. Considering the goal-mouth action that’s gone on in their recent outings, I like the bigger price, for the away win with goals at both ends. That Win & BTTS option catches the eye for me at 7/1.

Today’s picks

From the analysis above, here are my picks for this evening…

Liverpool v Atalanta
Champions League, 8pm – BT Sport

• Half Time/ Full Time: Liverpool/ Atalanta @ 40/1 with Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred, 35/1 Sportingbet, Bwin, 33/1 in general 

• Half Time/ Full Time: Atalanta/ Liverpool @ 20/1 with Skybet, BetVictor, 18/1 and 16/1 in general

Millwall v Reading
Championship, 7pm

• Reading to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 7/1 (8.0) with Bet365, 13/2 (7.5) in general 

I’ll be back tomorrow, when we’ll be looking at match-day 4 in the Europa League.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues