Tuesday 8th December 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

• Champions League match-day 6…
• RB Leipzig v Man Utd…
• Win & BTTS contenders…

Tuesday-night chances at 62/1…

It’s the final round of Champions League Group games this week…

Match-day 6 begins with nine teams already through to the Knockouts in the New Year. Of those nine, four sides are confirmed as Group winners: Bayern Munich, Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea.

Going into today & tomorrow’s games, there are 13 clubs vying for the remaining seven places in the Last 16.

The top two in each Group qualify. Third-place teams drop into the Europa League.

The official UEFA website gives a good run-through of ‘who needs what’ here.

Potential for drama…

Over the past two seasons, the Champions League Knockout rounds have provided us with two of our best ever payouts, in the Half Time/ Full Time (HT/ FT) markets.

Man Utd have ticked that box two weekends running in the Premier League recently…

United came from 0-2 down to win 3-2 at Southampton at 22/1. Then repeated the trick at West Ham on Saturday, turning a 1-0 half-time deficit into a 3-1 victory, for a 25/1 HT/ FT payout.

Across the Leagues member Eric has got his eye on some potential crazy comebacks this week:

“I'll be concentrating on HT/FT reversals in the final Champion's League group games on Tuesday and Wednesday. I've picked out 6 must win games, assuming that it is too risky to play for a draw, including our good friends Man Utd and Atalanta. Only need to get one over the line for a profit…”

I’m with Eric on the Man Utd line of enquiry, in particular…

RB Leipzig v Man Utd

Group G is very finely poised going into tonight’s final round, with three sides level on 9 points each: Man Utd (+6 Goal Difference), PSG (+3 GD), RB Leipzig (-2 GD).

Man Utd ‘only’ need a draw to stay in the competition. But that’s easier said than done…

Especially against an RB Leipzig side that have won 7 out of 7 home games in all competitions so far this season. Including a 2-1 win over PSG.

The Red Bull club are 3rd in the German Bundesliga, and had an entertaining 3-3 draw at champions Bayern Munich at the weekend (2-2 at half time).

Leipzig need to win tonight. And not for the first time this season, Man Utd manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer doesn’t seem to be making quite the right noises:

“We never make it easy for ourselves … Knockout games are big”

The fact that nothing other than a win for the home side will do here, is enough for me to entertain the idea of another rollercoaster HT/ FT switcheroo this evening, at big odds…

As we’ve noted in our last two emails, Man Utd on the road have been the comeback kings this season:

• Man Utd have gone a goal down during the first half in 6 of their last 8 away games in all competitions – but in 5 of those 6, United have ended up winning the game

Leipzig’s last three matches have ended 3-3, 3-4 (W) and 2-1 (W). There’s certainly potential for this one to get exciting, if & when either team goes behind…

After delivering at 25/1 on Saturday, Man Utd will be in our good books for a while, whatever happens tonight. And with the pre-match scenario as it is today, there’s a pretty enticing case to go in again.

Odds of 25/1 are available for both ‘flip-flop’ options in the HT/ FT market: Leipzig/ Man Utd, and vice versa.

Champions League – Scorers notebook…

With eight games taking place in the Champions League tonight, here are five men to look out for in front of goal:

• Lazio v Club Brugge – Ciro Immobile has scored in 8 consecutive games for Lazio, including 3 out of 3 in the Champions League. Immobile is odds-on to score Anytime in this early 5.55pm kick off, with 4/5 (1.8) the top price on offer (Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes & Coral)

• Barcelona v Juventus – these two are battling it out for 1st place honours in Group G. There’s the distinct possibility of seeing Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo on the same pitch again, too. If you shop around, you can get those two legends of the game at just over Evens (2.0+) each in the Anytime Scorer market (again with Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes & Coral)

• PSG v Basaksehir – PSG are in that three-way tussle alongside Man Utd and Leipzig in Group H. A win will guarantee top spot for the French champions. PSG’s star men – the world’s two most expensive players, no less – are unsurprisingly short odds-on to find the net here. Kylian Mbappe and Neymar are around just 2/5 (1.4) each

Along with the HT/ FT route for Leipzig-Man Utd, I’ve also got my eye on the bigger prices again in the English Football League (EFL)…

Win & BTTS contenders…

We’re in a really good phase of the season right now in the EFL in terms of form in the book, frequent fixtures, and there being all to play for at both ends of every table.

Our Win & Both Teams to Score (Win & BTTS) feature has proved popular (and profitable) since its introduction. Taking into account the current and 2020/21 form, here are three matches on my radar today:

Millwall v QPR (Championship, 7.45pm)

• Millwall did their bit in the Win & BTTS department for us last week by scoring in a 2-1 defeat at Blackburn. The Lions have managed just 2 Clean Sheets from 8 home games in the Championship this season, and that figure is the same for QPR on the road. Millwall are without a win in 8 games, but there’s the potential to change that tonight…

• QPR have lost 3 in a row, and Both Teams to Score has paid out in 5 of their last 6. Win & BTTS has clicked in 3 of QPR’s last 4 defeats, including 3-1 and 2-1 score-lines on their travels

Millwall to Win & Both Teams to Score is 7/2 (4.5) and 10/3 (4.33).

Watford v Rotherham (Championship, 7.45pm)

• The League Stats on our website show that Watford have Scored In 7 of their 8 home games in the Championship, while only keeping 2 Clean Sheets at Vicarage Road. The Hornets’ last 4 victories have all come at home, with Win & BTTS paying out each time, and some high scores: 4-1, 3-2, 3-2, 3-1

• Rotherham are joint-bottom of the division for Clean Sheets, with just 2 from 16 league games overall. They’ve lost 4 of their last 5, with their last 2 away trips ending in 3-1 and 3-2 defeats

Watford to Win & Both Teams to Score is 5/2 (3.5) and 12/5 (3.4).

Grimsby v Newport (League Two, 7pm)

• Newport are top of League Two and have Scored In 100% of games, including 7 out of 7 away (with 3 out of 7 Clean Sheets). Both Teams to Score has paid out in 6 of County’s last 7 games. Win & BTTS has delivered in 3 of their last 4 wins, each time by the 2-1 score

• Grimsby have Scored In 4 of their 5 home games, while only managing one Clean Sheet. Their last 2 games have ended in 1-4 and 2-1 defeats

Newport to Win & Both Teams to Score is 3/1 (4.0).

Take your pick…

As ever, my advice with these selections is to pick & choose, however you prefer – Singles, Doubles, Trixies, Patents…

I’m sticking with the three-pronged approach that has served me well recently:

Millwall, Watford & Newport:

Match Win treble pays around 9/2 (5.5).

Both Teams to Score treble pays 6/1 (7.0) and 5/1+ (6.0+).

Win & BTTS treble pays 62/1 and 60/1.

Today’s picks

From the analysis above, here are my picks for this evening…

RB Leipzig v Man Utd (Champions League, 8pm)

• Half Time/ Full Time: Leipzig/ Man Utd @ 25/1 with Skybet, BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports, 22/1 general 

• Half Time/ Full Time: Man Utd/ Leipzig @ 25/1 with Skybet, Betfred, NetBet, 10Bet, VBet, 22/1 general

Millwall v QPR (Championship, 7.45pm)
Watford v Rotherham (Championship, 7.45pm)
Grimsby v Newport (League Two, 7pm)

• TREBLE. Match Result: Millwall, Watford & Newport to Win @ 9/2 with Betway, Betfred, William Hill 

• TREBLE. Both Teams to Score: in the 3 games listed above @ 6/1 with William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 5/1+ in general

• TREBLE. Win & Both Teams to Score: Millwall, Watford & Newport @ 62/1 with Bet365, BetVictor, 60/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Betway

I’ll be back tomorrow, when the Champions League and Championship action continues.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues