Tuesday 19th October 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

• Champions League Matchday 3…
• Sheriff and Shakhtar can spring a surprise…
• Anytime Scorers at 40/1…

Champions League tonight – Sheriff for the shock at 100/1…

The curse of the next-time-out bet struck again at the weekend.

When I backed him on International duty for Scotland in the Faroe Islands, John McGinn drew a blank. He had scored in the game before. And then he scored in the game after…

McGinn was on the scoresheet for Aston Villa on Saturday, in a midlands derby that produced a crazy comeback. It was 0-0 at half time. Villa went 2-0 in the second half. In the last 10 minutes plus injury time, Wolves turned it round to win, 3-2. It’s a funny ol’ game…

If the Next Game habit takes hold again today, then expect Kevin De Bruyne to pop up with a goal for Manchester City in the early kick-off (away at Club Brugge, 5.45pm). The Belgian star came up dry on Champions League Matchday 2, when I’d flagged Kevin up as an Anytime Scorer selection at PSG. Since then, De Bruyne has scored in two out of two Premier League games.

Of course, being overly superstitious can be the road to the poorhouse in the gambling game. Vicktor Gyokeres has scored in five of his last seven games for Coventry. The two blanks were – you guessed it – the two matches where I named him as a scorer bet. Does that mean it’s now written in the stars that Gyokeres is going to find the net at Preston tomorrow night? Of course not. But I wouldn’t be surprised.

Glutton for punishment perhaps, but I’m keen to play the Anytime Scorer markets again this evening. We haven’t been far away in recent weeks. There are players with prolific scoring form to their name. The stats on our website show it. And when a striker is in the zone, we should note their confidence and momentum, and trust in it. See below for the names of four forwards to follow tonight.

Sheriff for the shock at 100/1…

There’s a stack of midweek football for us to enjoy. Armchair fans have plenty of options. BT Sport for the Champions League, Europa League & Europa Conference League. Sky Sports for the English Championship, as well as the live Goals show (or as my wife calls it, ‘the one with the men wearing headphones shouting at the games…’).

Champions League Group D looks the best place to go hunting for Tuesday-night excitement. Surprise leaders FC Sheriff Tiraspol – fresh from a 25/1 win at Real Madrid last time – are away to Inter Milan. Are we about to witness another stratospheric upset in UEFA’s flagship competition? Sheriff are 18/1 to beat Inter.

The reigning six-time Moldovan league champions are on a five-game winning streak in all competitions, and unbeaten in 19.

Inter blew a 1-0 half-time lead to go down 3-1 at Lazio at the weekend. Interestingly, that’s the second Serie A game in a row where the Milan club have been involved in a Half Time/ Full Time scoreboard switcheroo. At the start of the month, Inter came from 1-0 down at the break to win 2-1 at Sassuolo…

Simone Inzaghi’s side are making a habit of striking out in the HT/ FT market. As well as those two recent flip-flops at Lazio and Sassuolo, Inter have come from a goal down at half time to win on not one but two further occasions – at Fiorentina, and Verona (both 3-1 final scores).

These are the kind of formbook stats that get us excited, seeing as HT/ FT comebacks uniformly pay out at big odds…

There have been 9 x Half Time/ Full Time turnarounds in Italy’s Serie A so far this season (from 80 games). That 11% ratio is over double the 5% strike-rate for these results in 2020/21 (19 out of 379 games = 5%). Are Italian teams bucking the old defensive stereotype, and playing with the handbrake off?

Inter Milan have been responsible for three of those nine reversals in the current league campaign. As well as making them one to watch for this bet in Serie A, the fact that Inter have won a total of five matches in all comps this season, and three of those five have paid out on the HT Lose/ FT Win… combined with an upstart underdog visiting the San Siro tonight with the wind in their sails…

Well, you see where I’m going. There could be a recipe for some drama here. On the betting front, with big prices in the crosshairs, that means two plays for me. The outsider bet on the 18/1 away win for FC Sheriff. And covering both teams in the Half Time/ Full Time market (or Double Result, as William Hill call it), for the scoreboard flip-flop.

HT Sheriff/ FT Inter is 25/1. HT Inter/ FT Sheriff is 100/1. I’m splitting a stake across those two.

Shakhtar can shake Madrid…

On the more modest end of the odds – but still well within the category of a European upset – Shakhtar Donetsk are 4/1 to win at home v Real Madrid. The Ukrainian side did the double over Madrid in last season’s Group stage.

The Spanish giants haven’t played since 3rd October. But before the International break, Real had lost two in a row, going down 2-1 at Espanyol, after also losing by that score-line at the hands of FC Sheriff.

Anytime Scorers at 40/1…

Back to the Anytime Scorers now, and these four men are in high up in my notes and in the stats right now. If it’s current form and strike-rates that you’re after, then these are some of the standout guys to back tonight…

Champions League, 8pm:

• Atletico Madrid v Liverpool – Mo Salah – scored in 8 games in a row for Liverpool. We’re also on Salah at 20/1 Each Way for Champions League Top Goalscorer

English Championship, 7.45pm:

• QPR v Blackburn – Ben Brereton Diaz – scored in 6 of his last 8 starts for club & country (Blackburn & Chile)

English League One, 7.45pm:

• Cheltenham v Morecambe – Cole Stockton – top scorer in League One. Scored in 3 of last 4 games for Morecambe

• Rotherham v Wycombe – Michael Smith – one goal behind Stockton. Scored 5 times across last 4 games for Rotherham, landing 3 Anytime Scorer payouts

Those four Anytime Scorer picks are priced at around 6/4 (2.5) each this evening. The full-house four-fold acca pays 40/1 with Bet365. You may wish to pick & mix these in different combinations.

I’m splitting a 2-pt stake, 11 ways, across a Yankee. Which comprises six doubles, four trebles, and the acca. Any two scorers will give a payout. Three or four find the net, and it’ll be a good night…

TODAY’S PICKS

From the analysis above, here are my picks for today…

Inter Milan v FC Sheriff Tiraspol:

• FC Sheriff to win @ 18/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Skybet, BetVictor

• Half Time/ Full Time: Sheriff/ Inter @ 25/1 Boylesports, Betfred, 22/1 Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet, Betway. AND Inter/ Sheriff @ 100/1 Boylesports, Betfred, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, Betway

Shakhtar Donetsk v Real Madrid:

• Shakhtar to win @ 4/1 Bet365 and in general

Four games listed above for Anytime Scorers:

• YANKEE. Anytime Scorers – Mo Salah, Ben Brereton Diaz, Cole Stockton, Michael Smith. Best price 40/1 the four-fold with Bet365, Vbet, 36/1 Skybet

The midweek fixtures continue on Wednesday. I’ll see you tomorrow.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues