Tuesday 21st January 2025

In Across the Leagues today:

• Atletico Madrid v Bayer Leverkusen - tonight 8pm…

• Liverpool v Lille - tonight 8pm…

• Shakhtar Donetsk v Brest - tomorrow 5.45pm… 

Champions League notebook: 3 men to follow this week…

The new 2024/25 Champions League format means we now get games in January. The action resumes with fixtures tonight and tomorrow…

We’re on Barcelona and Bayern Munich as pre-season, 12/1+ Each Way picks for the trophy. Players from both those clubs feature in my notes today…

When it comes to the top-tier tournaments, we often say, ‘back the best.’ I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see star strikers such as Robert Lewandowski and Harry Kane get on the score-sheet again in the Champions League this week…

But with Harry odds-on across the board, and Lewandowski around Even Money (2.0) in the Anytime Scorer markets for this week’s games. It is nonetheless worth pointing out that both men don’t bring their most prolific form to the table right now:

• Lewandowski has failed to score in 5 of his last 7 Barcelona appearances in all competitions

• Kane has ‘only’ found the net in 2 of his last 7 showings for Bayern

• Likewise, Lewandowski’s Barca teammate Raphinha has scored in 2 out of 6. And Borussia Dortmund’s Serhou Guirassy has failed to ripple the net in 6 of his last 8 apps. Those two men are level on 6 Champions League goals each for the season, 2nd only to Lewandowski (7)

If we’re talking about the big boys, then of course we need to mention Man City’s Erling Haaland and Liverpool’s Mo Salah, too…

• Haaland has paid out for Anytime Scorer bets in 3 of his last 4 games (after a run of just one in 7 before that)

• Salah is 3 games without scoring, having previously registered in 7 out of 8

Salah is the bookies’ odds-on favourite to return to scoring ways against Lille tonight, as short as 1/2 (1.5) with BetVictor. Haaland is Evens or just over (2.0+) to score at PSG tomorrow.

And while we’re on the subject of star strikers, Real Madrid duo Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Jr are also both odds-on favourites to score at home v Salzburg on Wednesday.

As I say, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any or all of those guys coming up with goals in Europe this week. But in the pursuit of more attractive odds, we should put these slightly less well-known names on our midweek list…

Lille’s Canadian striker Jonathan David is one to keep an eye out for at next year’s World Cup…

The 25-year-old is constantly being linked with a move to one of Europe’s top clubs. He’ll be in the shop window at Anfield tonight. Bet365 are an industry-best 10/3 (4.33) for David to Score. He’s 12/1 with William Hill for an Assist…

• However, I should also report that David has actually failed to score in 7 appearances in all comps for Lille (although he has provided 4 assists in that time)

Also of note from the above list of ‘goal involvements.’ Man City have just agreed to sign Omar Marmoush from Eintracht Frankfurt. And Florian Wirtz is a player I very much like right now…

The 21-year-old German talent featured in our build-up to the Euro ‘24 last summer. And after winning the Bundesliga with Bayer Leverkusen, it’s no exaggeration to say that Wirtz has the makings of a potential world-class player for many years to come…

• Wirtz has scored in 4 of his last 6 games for Leverkusen. He’s landed Anytime Scorer odds in half of his 6 Champions League appearances this season, racking up 5 goals in total (the same tally as Vinicius Jr, Kane, and Haaland)

Atletico Madrid v Bayer Leverkusen should be an absorbing watch tonight. Atletico have won 15 of their last 16 matches, while the German champions bring a 12-match winning streak.

Traditionally stingy in defence, Diego Simeone’s Atletico side have actually conceded in all three of their home Champions League games so far this season. Let’s take odds of 3/1+ (4.0+) for the magic feet of Wirtz to come up with a goal for the visitors.

Two more players catch the eye in my midweek research, with stats and price potential for both Anytime Scorer and Player Cards bets…

• Brest forward Ludovic Ajorque has scored in 4 games out of 6 in France. He’s Brest’s top scorer in Ligue 1 this season - but also their joint most-carded player…

Ajorque is still searching for a first Champions League goal. But the 30-year-old has collected yellow cards in three out of five appearances in the competition this season. We’ll follow him in both markets on Wednesday, with Brest away to Shakhtar, who haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last five Champions League games.

Back to tonight’s encounter between Liverpool and Lille. And while the likes of Mo Salah and Jonathan David will rightly get attention up front (and both will likely be on penalty-taking duties). The man I’ve got a speculative red circle round in my notes is Lille’s big centre-back, Bafode Diakite…

• Diakite has popped up with goals in 2 of his last 6 appearances for Lille - a noteworthy slice of recent form for any defender. He’s their joint-2nd highest scorer in the league in 2024/25, behind star striker David. Bafode also notched 6 goals in 28 games last season. Again, that’s eye-catching for a centre-back…

The 24-year-old Frenchman has been booked against the likes of Real Madrid and PSG this term, and in two of his last six games overall. We’ll take him as a long-shot to spring a surprise and score. And in his day-job at the back, as a Card pick against high-flying Liverpool, too…

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TODAY’S PICKS & BEST ODDS

See above for full details

Champions League

Atletico Madrid v Bayer Leverkusen - TONIGHT 8pm, TNT Sports:

• Anytime Scorer: Florian Wirtz @ 10/3 (4.33) Boylesports, Bet365, Betway, 3/1+ (4.0+) general

Liverpool v Lille - TONIGHT 8pm, Amazon Prime Video:

• Anytime Scorer: Bafode Diakite @ 18/1 Skybet, Bet365, 16/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports

• Player to be Carded: Bafode Diakite @ 3/1 (4.0) Skybet, 13/5 (3.6) BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, SpreadEx, Sporting Index, 5/2 (3.5) Betfred, Bet365  

Shakhtar Donetsk v Brest - WEDNESDAY 5.45pm, TNT Sports:

• Anytime Scorer: Ludovic Ajorque @ 14/5 (3.8) Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet, 11/4 (3.75) Bet365, 13/5 (3.6) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

• Player to be Carded: Ludovic Ajorque @ 7/2 (4.5) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 3/1+ (4.0+) William Hill, Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred

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I’ll be back on Friday with your Weekend Preview…

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues