Wednesday 14th September 2022

In Across the Leagues today:

• Real Madrid v RB Leipzig…
• Vinicius Jr takes on the Leipzig defence…
• Champions League acca…

Champions League picks – including a 130/1 acca…

Robert Lewandowski missed a couple of first-half chances last night, but I’m sticking with the Champions League ‘cream rises to the top’ theory for this evening’s games…

While the likes of Kylian Mpabbe, Neymar, and Lionel Messi are all odds-on in general to score for PSG at Maccabi Haifa. And Erling Braut Haaland – who has an incredible 25 goals in his first 20 Champions League games – is just 4/11 (1.36) in general to score for Man City against Borussia Dortmund, with Bet365 an industry-best 1/2 (1.5).

Real Madrid v RB Leipzig…

We can improve on those Anytime Scorer prices by going after Vinicius Junior, who is odds-against to score for Real Madrid tonight, at home v RB Leipzig.

With Madrid target-man and last season’s Champions League top scorer Karim Benzema out injured for the hosts, the 22-year-old Brazilian has the chance to really step up here. And even before Benzema got crocked last week, Vinicius Jr had been making his mark this season:

• Vinicius Junior has scored in 5 games in a row for Real Madrid

The jet-heeled forward has a sharp turn and shot on him, as demonstrated by his swift acceleration and smart finish for his goal in Madrid’s 4-1 La Liga victory over Mallorca at the weekend. You can watch the goals from that game here .

Also look out in those match highlights for a screamer from midfielder Federico Valverde, who roamed forward, carrying the ball over half the length of the pitch, before unleashing a left-foot rocket into the top corner. Valverde has now scored twice this season – already matching his goal tally for the entire 2021/22 campaign. He’s a top price 4/1 (5.0) with Bet365 to strike again tonight, and around 12/5 (3.4) in general.

I’m with Vinicius as the man to follow as the ‘back the best’ bet today though – odds of 7/5 (2.4) and 11/8 (2.38) appeal.

The speedy wide-man is no stranger to a bit of aggro, too. He can make life very tricky for whoever is tasked with closing him down tonight – especially if caught in a one-on-one race down the left flank, where Vini Jr usually does most of his running…

In Real’s home win v Mallorca on Sunday, the visitors had four defenders booked, including their right back. Leipzig’s 22-year-old defender Mohamed Simakan looks likely to be one of the players tasked with protecting the right side of the back line tonight – and he could be in a for a real test…

Simakan has been booked twice in nine appearances this season, including last week on Champions League Matchday 1 against Shakhtar Donetsk. Odds of 2/1+ (3.0+) are worth chancing for the young defender to get a card tonight. Different bookies call this market by slightly different names – see below for the best odds.

Champions League Acca…

Over in Across the Leagues EXTRA, my colleague Shaun & I will be putting up our weekend Premier League predictions on Friday, ready for the weekend games and the latest round of our Predictor league. A popular feature of that weekly Friday email is our Premier League Acca, where we combine our Match Result and Goals predictions. Today I’m bringing that approach in as a new addition to our members-only midweek Champions League advice…

Here are our predictions and match-ups for today’s games:

With these Match Result and Goals selections:

AC Milan v Dinamo Zagreb – Under 2.5 Goals
Shakhtar Donetsk v Celtic – Shakhtar Donetsk to win
Chelsea v Salzburg – Chelsea to win
FC Copenhagen v Sevilla – Under 2.5 Goals
Juventus v Benfica – Both Teams to Score: Yes
Maccabi Haifa v PSG – PSG to win
Man City v Borussia Dortmund – Man City to win
Rangers v Napoli – Napoli to win
Real Madrid v RB Leipzig – Real Madrid to win

• The nine-fold acca pays 130/1 with Unibet

TODAY’S PICKS

Champions League tonight – 5.45pm and 8pm kick-offs:

• ACCA. Nine-fold acca as listed above – best price 130/1 Unibet, 127/1 SpreadEx, 119/1 Bet365, 100/1+ in general 

Real Madrid v RB Leipzig:

• Anytime Scorer: Vinicius Junior – best price 7/5 (2.4) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 11/8 (2.38) Bet365, 11/10 (2.1) Skybet

• To get a Card: Mohamed Simakan – best price 11/4 (3.75) Unibet, 12/5 (3.4) BetVictor (Anytime Carded Player), Bet365 (Player to be Booked), 2/1 (3.0) Skybet, 10Bet, SportNation, LiveScoreBet

I’ll be back on Friday with your Weekend Preview.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues