Tuesday 8th April 2025

In Across the Leagues today:

• Quarter Finals, 1st Legs…
• Top Scorer advice at 9/1 and 18/1…
• Football League combo at 67/1… 

Champions League picks – including Arsenal v Real Madrid tonight…

After two pretty dire big matches in the Premier League last week, with just one goal scored in total across the Merseyside derby and Manchester derby. We head into this week’s Champions League quarter finals with hope and expectation…

Bigtime club football doesn’t come much bigger than the business end of the Champions League…

In our 2024/25 ante-post Each Way selections, we’re rooting for both Bayern Munich and Barcelona for the trophy, in the book at 12/1+ each. Bayern are now trading at 5/1, with Barca the favourites at 3/1.

Quarter Finals - 1st Legs:

• Arsenal v Real Madrid - tonight 8pm, Amazon Prime Video
• Bayern Munich v Inter Milan - tonight 8pm, TNT Sports
• Barcelona v Borussia Dortmund - Wednesday 8pm, TNT Sports
• PSG v Aston Villa - Wednesday 8pm, TNT Sports

If you fancy all four favourites to prevail over the two legs, then a fourfold accumulator on Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Barcelona & PSG pays around 3/1 (4.0) in the bookies’ To Qualify market.

Top Scorer advice…

While Bayern and Barca are through to the last eight in the Outright Winner betting, it looks like we might have originally backed the wrong horses in the Top Goalscorer market…

Back in September, I put up Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (66/1), and then PSG’s Bradley Barcola (100/1+) as Each Way underdogs for Champions League top scorer…

The two clubs meet in the quarter finals. But the arrival of Marco Asensio (on loan from opponents PSG) and Marcus Rashford in the January transfer window has shook things up for Villa.

While for PSG, Ousmane Dembele has been a revelation…

Dembele is five goals clear as top scorer in French Ligue 1 this season, with 21 goals. In the Champions League, the 27-year-old has racked up seven goals, landing Anytime Scorer bets in four of his last six appearances.

Champions League 2024/25 - Top Scorers and Latest Odds (Bet365):

Plenty of big name scorers in that betting list. Along with Dembele, the other player that stands out for me is Kylian Mbappe…

I wouldn’t put it past the Real Madrid striker reeling in the guys at the top of the charts (he’s on seven goals, the leaders are on 11 and 10…)...

There is plenty of competition in this Real side. But Mbappe is the man most likely to end up with the ball when Madrid get a penalty kick. And as we’ve seen before in big matches, the French superstar tends to bring out his best when it really matters…

I’m thinking here of Mbappe’s hat-trick in the classic 3-3 after-extra-time World Cup 2022 final against Argentina. Or more recently, a brace in the 2nd leg at this stage of the Champions League against Barcelona last season, when he was still at PSG. And for Real this term, a hat-trick against Manchester City.

• Mbappe finished joint-top of the scorer standings in the Champions League last season, level with Harry Kane

Standout stats - at the double:

• 5 of Mbappe’s last 10 goal-scoring appearances have seen him score 2+ goals in the match
• French teammate Dembele holds the same recent record, firing in a double or better (2 hat-tricks) in 5 of his last 10 scoring appearances for club & country

That scoring power could yet see Mbappe or Dembele fire their way to the top of the final standings for Champions League Top Goalscorer this season. Backing those two as Each Way prospects at the best current prices (see below) is my pre-quarter-final advice this week.

• While on a match-by-match basis, as well as the standard Anytime and First/ Last Goalscorer markets. You may want to also keep an eye out for fancy prices in the ‘Scorer Multiples’ options, such as Player to Score 2+ Goals in the Match and/ or To Score a Hat-trick

Mbappe is 8th on the all-time Champions League scorers list. Of current players still ‘active’ and playing in Europe, only Robert Lewandowski (3rd) stands ahead of him. The evergreen 36-year-old Barcelona striker is also the only man in front of Mbappe in the Spanish La Liga top-scorer chart in 2024/25.

While Lewandowski on nine goals is just 3/1 to win the UEFA Champions League ‘Golden Boot’ this season. I’m happy to let him help Barcelona get as far as they can for our ante-post Outright Winner bet for the trophy. And instead take class act Mbappe and man-of-the-moment Dembele at better prices…

The Champions League draw has already mapped out who will play who in the semi finals…

For our Outright bets, we can root for a Barcelona-Bayern semi, which would guarantee us a place payout and a team in the final.

Today’s new scorer selections would give us the potential for Mbappe’s Real Madrid to take on Dembele’s PSG in the semis. That’s the plan…

We’ll also take our two men as Anytime Scorer picks for this week’s 1st Legs.

Win & BTTS selections…

In the English Football League, we’re having a midweek tilt at a massive-odds Win & Both Teams to Score combo...

Here are our three selections for a Trixie this evening (three doubles and the treble):

Norwich v Sunderland - Championship, 7.45pm

• SUNDERLAND to Win & Both Teams to Score 

Peterborough v Birmingham - League One, 7.45pm

• BIRMINGHAM to Win & Both Teams to Score 

Bolton v Rotherham - League One, 7.45pm

• BOLTON to Win & Both Teams to Score 

A ‘normal’ win treble on those three teams pays around 7/1 tonight. In comparison, the Win & BTTS trio comes out more like 60/1. This is why we play, the way we play…

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TODAY’S PICKS & BEST ODDS

See above for full details

UEFA Champions League 2024/25

Top Goalscorer - Each Way (1/4 odds 1-3 places):

• Kylian Mbappe @ 9/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 17/2 William Hill, 888 Sport, 8/1 Bet365, Skybet, Betway, Boylesports
• Ousmane Dembele @ 18/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, 888 Sport, Betway, 16/1 Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports

Arsenal v Real Madrid:

• Anytime Scorer: Kylian Mbappe @ 15/8 (2.88) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 13/8+ (2.63+) general

PSG v Aston Villa:

• Anytime Scorer: Ousmane Dembele @ 11/10 (2.1) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 21/20 (2.05) Bet365, Evens (2.0) Betfred, Boylesports

Three English Football League games as listed above:

• Trixie. Win & Both Teams to Score: Sunderland, Birmingham, Bolton - best odds Bet365 (67/1 the treble), William Hill, 888 Sport (61/1), BetVictor (60/1)

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I’ll be back before the weekend with more stats & analysis for you…

P.S
Log-in to view all our stats for 18 leagues, hundreds of teams & thousands of players at:

www.acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues