Tuesday 11th April 2023

In Across the Leagues today:

• Champions League Quarter Finals tonight…
• Manchester City v Bayern Munich…
• Benfica v Inter Milan…

Champions League pointers at 20/1 and 100/1…

Good afternoon. We have another big week of football coming up, with the Champions League Quarter Finals starting from tonight…

First of all, thanks very much for the emails I’ve had since Sunday’s 63/1 Bet Builder success. Great to hear from you, as ever. And some real cracking stories in the inbox…

Kev writes in to say he’s never sweated so much on a corners count! While Carl reduced the last-minute stress levels by cashing-out for a guaranteed profit. And Sunil sent me a screenshot of his big, four-figure win. Great stuff!

• Email me at: oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Three knockout traits to look out for…

Onto the Champions League now. And as discussed before in the knockout rounds, these big European matches often produce plenty of scoreboard drama and big-odds opportunities…

One angle we’ve done well from before is the Half Time/ Full Time turnaround, especially in the 2nd Legs when the tension and desperation really gets ramped up…

For example, in the Semi Final 2nd Leg between Real Madrid v Man City last season, Madrid came from 0-1 down at half time to win the game, 2-1. Eventually going through 6-5 on aggregate, having lost the 1st Leg, 4-3.

Another tactic we’ve played well before is for ill discipline. A notable result from recent years being when we bagged a Red Card payout as Atletico Madrid crashed out of the competition. Again, the 2nd Legs are the most likely candidates for players to lose their heads.

A third big-price angle to keep in mind for these high-stakes matches is the goal-scoring defender…

And with the potential script for a 1st Leg to be tight and/ or a bit nervy or cautious, it can sometimes take an unlikely scorer to make the breakthrough and shake things up. In games like these, one goal can be massive - and teams won’t care which player gets it…

A good example for us here would be a couple of seasons back, when we were on PSG centre-back Marquinhos for a 28/1 First Scorer payout.

• Last season, a central defender scored in 3 of the 8 Champions League Quarter Final matches. Ibrahima Konate in both legs for Liverpool against Benfica, and Antonio Rudiger for Chelsea at Real Madrid

Knockout drama, part one…

Tonight’s Champions League Quarter Final, 1st Legs:

8pm, BT Sport

Manchester City v Bayern Munich

Benfica v Inter Milan

If we’re going to talk about likely scorers this evening, then one man to follow would obviously be Erling Haaland for Man City v Bayern Munich. The City striker is an odds-on favourite in the Anytime Scorer market, 8/11 (1.73) with Bet365 and 4/6 (1.67) in general.

The Norwegian goal machine has banged in 11 goals in his last 4 games in all competitions (!). Haaland is the top scorer in both the Premier League and Champions League this season.

For Benfica v Inter Milan, there are two names that stand out as the top goal threats for the home team. Goncalo Ramos and Joao Mario are the joint-top scorers in the Portuguese league this season…

• Striker Goncalo Ramos has scored in 2 of Benfica’s last 3 Champions League games

• Attacking midfielder Joao Mario has scored in 6 of Benfica’s last 7 Champions League games, including the last 5 in a row. He’s chief penalty taker, too, with 5 of those 6 CL strikes coming from the spot

Skybet have both men at 2/1 (3.0) each to score Anytime tonight. Bet365 favour Ramos at 15/8 (2.88), with Mario at 10/3 (4.33).

Incidentally, both Ramos and Mario are on a booking, so would miss the 2nd Leg if carded this evening.

From the Anytime Scorer prices, I like Joao Mario at the bigger odds today - and wouldn’t be surprised at all if he got another one from the penalty spot.

At the Etihad Stadium, I’m looking forward to watching the latest big-match performance from Bayern Munich youngster, Jamal Musiala. The 20-year-old German is a brilliant, creative, talented player. A rising star of world football, for sure…

Musiala is around 4/1 to score from midfield tonight. With just one goal from his last 11 appearances in all competitions, he’s more one to look out for from the armchair. Or maybe in the Assists markets if you’re after a bet… Bet365 make Musiala 6/1 in that department (Over 0.5 Assists).

I like the back-a-defender angle for some outside bets for us today…

• Bayern Munich have got some noteworthy recent form here. With goals from defenders or wing-backs in 5 of their last 7 games: Matthijs de Ligt (2), Joao Cancelo, Benjamin Pavard (2), Joshua Kimmich, Dayot Upamecano

And it could also pay to be alert to the fact that in the last round of the Champions League, RB Leipzig’s sole goal against Man City came from a defender, with centre-back Josko Gvardiol planting a header past the Premier League champions.

Plenty of speculative Anytime Scorer prices to choose from here - and that’s just from the Bayern Munich squad…

Cancelo is 20/1 (Skybet) to score against his former club, although far from guaranteed to play the whole 90 minutes…

Kimmich is 16/1 with Bet365, but as short as 9/1 and 8/1 elsewhere…

Pavard is 22/1 with Sky and 20/1 Bet365 - and more like 18s and 16s in general...

But the ones I most like the look of are the two big Bayern centre-backs…

Matthijs de Ligt is available at around 20/1 to score Anytime, and 66/1 or 50/1 for First Scorer. See below for the best odds & bookies.

Dayot Upamecano is right at the bottom of the market, 33/1 or 25/1 Anytime, and as big as 100/1 and 66/1 to score First. Stranger things have happened…

If you’re looking for staking advice on these speculative defender picks, I’d say splitting a stake across the Anytime and First Scorer options for both men (eg. 0.5 pt for each option; 1 pt total stake per player).

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

Benfica v Inter Milan

Champions League, 8pm – BT Sport

• Anytime Scorer: Joao Mario @ 10/3 (4.33) Bet365 (Eduardo Joao Mario), 11/4 (3.75) Unibet, 5/2 (3.5) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Man City v Bayern Munich

Champions League, 8pm – BT Sport

• Anytime Scorer: Matthijs de Ligt @ 22/1 Skybet, 20/1 Bet365, Unibet. AND First Goalscorer @ 66/1 Skybet, 50/1 Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral

• Anytime Scorer: Dayot Upamecano @ 33/1 Bet365, 30/1 Unibet, 25/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook. AND First Goalscorer @ 100/1 Bet365, 66/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral

I’ll be back in the week with more. Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues