Tuesday 11th February 2025

In Across the Leagues today:

• FA Cup update…
• UEFA cups mega-acca now 96/1…
• The Three C’s… 

Champions League pointers: Man City v Real Madrid tonight…

Good afternoon. There’s a big week of football ahead. And today we’re all about the cups…

FA Cup - Cherries and Forest…

In the FA Cup, our 33/1 Each Way picks Bournemouth are safely through to next month’s 5th Round. The impressive Cherries won 2-0 at Everton on Saturday, and will host Wolves for a place in the Quarter Finals.

And if our 40/1 Each Way selection Nottingham Forest win at Exeter tonight, then they’ll also be rewarded with a home tie against a struggling Premier League opponent in the next round (Ipswich).

With the likes of Liverpool, Arsenal, and Chelsea, all already out of the competition. Bournemouth are now 10/1 at best in the current FA Cup Outright Winner market, with Forest at 20/1 (place terms: 1/2 odds for reaching the Final). Read my original FA Cup 2024/25 preview from January here.

UEFA cups mega-acca now 96/1…

Our pre-season, huge-odds UEFA Cups combo is alive & kicking (original advice from September here):

Champions League - Bayern Munich

Europa League - Athletic Club Bilbao

Conference League - Chelsea

From odds of 300/1+ when we first got involved. The treble part of that multi-cup Trixie is now trading at 96/1 (Bet365, Boylesports, Betway).

With Athletic Club and Chelsea safely through to their respective Knockout rounds proper. We need Bayern Munich to get past Celtic in the new Champions League ‘Knockout Playoffs’ round. The Germans go to Celtic Park for the 1st Leg tomorrow night.

The headline match today is at the Etihad Stadium…

Man City v Real Madrid tonight…

8pm - Amazon Prime Video

While TNT Sports get most of the action, Amazon get the pick of the Champions League ‘match of the day’ this season - and it’s no surprise that they’ve sent their cameras to Man City v Real Madrid…

This knockout-playoff 1st Leg gives us our first opportunity this season to target what I call the ‘Three C’s’ in high-stakes cup games like this:

Comebacks, Cards - and Centre-backs scoring…

For example:

• Man City have been trailing 0-1 at Half Time in each of their last 3 games in all competitions. Pep Guardiola’s side came back to win in the 2nd Half in 2 of those: 3-1 v Club Brugge in the Champions League, and 2-1 at Leyton Orient in the FA Cup…

Next week’s 2nd Legs might be a better general target for Half Time/ Full Time (HT/ FT) comebacks in this competition. But I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t inform you that Man City are 20/1 with BetVictor to pull off another HT/ FT turnaround tonight (HT: Madrid/ FT: City). Vice-versa is 28/1.

• Midfield pair Bernardo Silva and Mateo Kovacic are City’s two most-carded men in the Premier League this season…

I’ve flagged up Silva as a ‘big match’ card candidate with success before. He’s been booked in the away leg v Real Madrid, two seasons in a row. So maybe we should wait for next week’s trip to Spain?! Skybet have the best prices for those City boys at home tonight: 9/2 (5.5) for Silva to be Carded, and 10/3 (4.33) for Kovacic.

• Vinicius Junior is Real Madrid’s most-carded player right now - and 6 of his 12 cards this season have come in cup games. The jet-heeled Brazilian is also his club’s top scorer in the Champions League this term. Real’s 39-year-old midfielder veteran/ class act Luka Modric is also a card candidate - second only to Vini Jr for Madrid in this department in La Liga this season, and a master of the stop-the-counter-attack trip or shirt tug…

In today’s betting, Vinicius Junior is a top-price 16/5 (4.2) for a Card with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 3/1 (4.0) Skybet. And 9/4 (3.25) with Sky to Score. Modric is 11/2 (6.5) in the Player Card market at Bet365.

Sticking with our Three C’s angle - where we’re looking for the knockout scenario to generate some big-odds opportunities…

The third C on my list is for a Central defender to score…

• If we take striker Erling Haaland as a given as Man City’s top scoring player this season. It’s interesting to note that City’s young Croatian centre-back, Josko Gvardiol, is next in line - level on 5 league goals with the much more attacking-minded Phil Foden. In fact, in the official Premier League 2024/25 statistics, the 23-year-old Gvardiol is the top-scoring defender in the division, 2 goals ahead of anyone else…

Gvardiol also scored in the Champions League at Real Madrid last season. He has previous.

The bookies know that Josko is a threat; whereas we can often hope for more chunky, double figures for a defender as an outsider in the Anytime Scorer market, the City centre-back isn’t far off those odds today, at 17/2 (9.5) and 8/1 (9.0)...

And with Real having injury problems at the back, a defender with a knack for a header or bundling one in in the six-yard box from a set piece is worth having on our side for this crunch encounter tonight…

You don’t really need me to tell you that star-name forwards Haaland, Vini Jr, or Kylian Mbappe are more frequent and likely scorers. We’re in the business of hunting out greater-odds opportunities today. And Gvardiol ticks that box.

• In the First Goalscorer market, Gvardiol is 25/1 with Bet365 and Boylesports. And 28/1 with Boyles for Last Goalscorer

Here at Across the Leagues, we also like to look at the stats that the mainstream press don’t talk much about. Stats like Corner kicks…

• This is the 4th season in a row where Man City and Real Madrid have been drawn against each other in the Champions League. City have won the Most Corners in those last 3 home encounters: 15-0, 7-3, 5-3 (and that’s as well as winning each of those 3 home games)

Add in the fact that in this season’s competition, Real have been out-cornered in each of their last three away trips: 4-3, 5-2, 8-5. While City have won the Corners Match Bet in all four of their home Champions League matches this term…

A bet on the hosts with a -1 Corner Handicap is the stats selection here, at odds of Even Money (2.0) or 10/11 (1.91). Paying out if City take at least two corner kicks more than Madrid.

If the Premier League side do happen to concede the first goal again, then that should only add emphasis to the quest when it comes to generating corners…

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TODAY’S PICKS & BEST ODDS

See above for full details

Man City v Real Madrid

Champions League - 8pm, Amazon Prime Video

• Player to Score: Josko Gvardiol @ 17/2 (9.5) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 8/1 (9.0) Bet365
• Man City -1 Corner Handicap @ Evens (2.0) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 10/11 (1.91) Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor

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I’ll be back tomorrow with a preview & picks for the Merseyside derby - Everton v Liverpool in the Premier League…

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues