Monday 16th September 2024

In Across the Leagues today:

• Champions League starts tomorrow…
• The cream to rise (back) to the top…
• Ollie’s next chance to shine…

Champions League Preview – with a 66/1 outsider…

The Champions League kicks-off this week, with the 2024/25 competition featuring an all-new format….

You can read all about the ins and outs on the official UEFA website here.

In short, there are now 36 teams instead of 32…

The ‘group’ stage is replaced by a new ‘league’ phase, where each club plays eight matches against different opponents (four home, four away).

There’s then a playoff round, followed by a standard two-legged knockout format from the round of last 16 through to the final.

The Europa League and Conference League have also moved to the new 36-team format.

Still with me? Good. Then let’s begin…

The cream to rise (back) to the top…

Last season we profited from Real Madrid winning the Champions League – a bet struck at a top price 8/1 (9.0), almost a year ago to the day.

This time, the Spanish league champions are just 7/2 (4.5). They’ve now added Kylian Mbappe to their ranks, and the superstar striker is 5/1 (6.0) in general to be the Champions League 2024/25 Top Goalscorer. Real have won this tournament five times in nine years, including two of the last three.

The pre-season favourites are Premier League champs, Manchester City. The Etihad club have got to the final twice in four years, winning one. Man City are 11/4 (3.75) trophy favourites, and their goal machine Erling Haaland is 3/1 (4.0) at best for top scorer.

I’ve said before that ‘the cream rises to the top’ is a good, safe, go-to phrase to have in mind for top-tier, Champions League trophy betting. You could also add in a bit of ‘form is temporary, class is permanent’…

With the latter statement in mind, perhaps this season’s new format will see a different European football superpower climb back to the top table…

Step forward, Bayern Munich. Their stadium will play host to this season’s final, and at odds of 12/1 in general – the German giants look one to follow. Priced as they are in the ante-post Outright Winner market, below the likes of Man City, Real Madrid, and 8/1 Arsenal.

Bayern have won the Champions League twice in the last dozen years, with the most recent celebrations coming in 2020 under Covid lockdown restrictions (if they get to the final this time, the official attendance certainly won’t be ‘zero’).

The Munich club have made an immaculate start to the new domestic season, sitting top of the early Bundesliga standings as the only side to have made a 100% start to the campaign (played three, won three). Harry Kane has been banging in the goals again, too. After a flat-footed summer up front for England at Euro 2024, the he’s-never-won-a-trophy brigade won’t be laughing anymore if Harry steps up to collect a Champions League medal next spring…

Kane is 6/1 in general for top scorer. We’ll let him fight it out with the likes of Mbappe and Haaland at single-figure odds. In the trophy market though, we’ll take 12/1 Each Way for his Bayern side to do something special. 

Another club to watch out for in the ‘comeback’ stakes is Barcelona. Financial controversies continue to swirl in the background (but they’re not the only ones). And if we go by what’s happening on the pitch, then last season’s La Liga runners-up have to be taken seriously again this term…

Like Bayern, Barcelona are setting the early pace in their domestic league: played five, won five, having scored two or more goals in every game…

In 17-year-old Euro 2024 star, Lamine Yamal, Barca have a world-class gamechanger in the ranks once again. Not to mention proven bigtime scorer Robert Lewandowski up front. And the likes of another Spanish trophy winner, Dani Olmo (currently injured, but in the form of his life in recent months). Along with Pedri, himself just 21 years of age and already well trusted and accomplished at ‘pulling the strings’ in the middle of the park. Plus, the talented Brazilian, Raphinha. There’s a lot to like about this Barca team…

With no Champions League silverware since 2015, the ten-year wait could be closer to coming to an end than some people think. As with Bayern, odds of 12/1 (or better) put Barcelona nicely into the category of a ‘sleeping giant’ who could take the crown back this season.

Ollie’s next chance to shine…

In the Top Goalscorer market, where there are the usual four Each Way places to shoot for. We’ll take the underdog approach here, and the man I like at 66/1 is Ollie Watkins…

The Aston Villa & England forward has proven himself to be a class act in the Premier League, scoring with regularity. And as his off-the-bench, match-winning cameo in the Euro 2024 semi finals told the wider footballing world: this guy knows how to finish.

In Unai Emery, Villa have a manager well-known for European cup nous and success. While going the whole hog and lifted the trophy might be too much of an underdog ask for Villa in the Champions League (also 66/1). Watkins Each Way for top scorer is one that stands out for me…

• Villa’s 8-match league-stage fixture lists starts this week with a trip to Young Boys in Switzerland, with that match one of the opening games on Tuesday, 5.45pm. We’ll also take Even Money or better (2.0+) for Ollie to Score Anytime in that one

Watkins’ list of upcoming Champions League opponents also includes the likes of Bologna, Club Brugge, Monaco, and Celtic. With all due respect, he could put together a strong run of goals in those fixtures. While Bayern Munich, Juventus, and RB Leipzig are likely to provide the 28-year-old with the latest opportunity for him to show what he can do in front of goal on the big stage.

Mega-acca in the pipe-line…

In the past couple of seasons, we’ve had some great near misses with doubles and trebles across the three UEFA club competitions: the Champions League, Europa League, and Europa Conference League. With the latter two not getting underway just yet, we can hold fire on our 2024/25 ‘mega acca’ for now…

I’ve been focusing my research on the Champions League thus far. The Europa League starts next week, with the Conference League to follow in the first week of October. I’ll keep you posted…

Here's a recap of our from-day-one business for the Champions League, with the first games taking place from Tuesday to Thursday this week…

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

UEFA Champions League 2024/25

Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

• Bayern Munich @ 12/1 BetVictor and in general 

• Barcelona @ 14/1 BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, 12/1 general

Top Goalscorer – Each Way (1/4 odds 1-4 places):

• Ollie Watkins @ 66/1 BetVictor, Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, Boylesports, Betway, 888 Sport 

Young Boys v Aston Villa (Tuesday 5.45pm):

• Anytime Scorer: Ollie Watkins @ 5/4 (2.25) Ladbrokes, Coral, Skybet, William Hill, 6/5 (2.2) Betfred, Evens+ (2.0+) general  

Time-saver: where possible, the bookie links above go directly to the matches/ markets in question.

I’ll be back on Wednesday, with plenty of midweek matches and markets for us to look at…

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues