Wednesday 6th November 2024

In Across the Leagues today:

• Oxford out-cornered again…
• Champions League tonight…
• PSG v Atletico Madrid… 

Champions League tonight:

Back the captain at underdog prices…

Oxford Utd played their part in providing us with another Most Corners result last night…

The hosts got a much-needed home win, with the final score 1-0. But we were interested in the flag-kick tally. And that went very much in favour of the visitors, with Hull City landing the Corners Match Bet with room to spare, 6-2.

Oxford have now won the Most Corners in just one of their 14 Championship matches this season. At home, the U’s are none from eight in that department.

At this stage of the season, stats trends like that are starting to become reliable and profitable patterns. I’ll report back with more of those for you, very soon.

As promised, we’re on Champions League duty today…

PSG v Atletico Madrid

Believe it or not, this is the first ever competitive meeting between these clubs.

Both need the points tonight, with just one win each out of three so far, in this new Champions League, ‘league stage’ format. The pressure is on tonight, then. And that can lead to Cards…

As I’ve stated so many times before, Diego Simeone’s Atletico side are never far from combusting; passion always has the capacity to spill over into ill-discipline.

However, the bookies are largely on to the Spanish side in this category this evening. For example, a handful or so Atletico players are priced around the 2/1 mark in the Player to be Carded betting.

Although quite how switched-on the bookmakers are might be in question, when you consider that some are listing Atletico centre-back Jose Gimenez as a favourite for a card in this match… despite the fact that the official UEFA website says the Uruguayan is suspended, having picked up three yellows in three Champions League appearances this term.

Marquinhos one to watch tonight…

Whereas yesterday’s Corners pick was more about the standout stats than an eye-catching price. Today’s selection is the other way round, with the odds for PSG captain Marquinhos getting my attention…

The Brazilian centre-back has been booked in two of his last four games. And in the Champions League this season, he’s picked up two yellows from three appearances…

We can get around the 7/1 mark for Marquinhos to go in the ref’s book again tonight, and that’s bigger than I was expecting for a defender in a match like this.

I’m also open to the chances of the 30-year-old PSG stalwart rising to the occasion and popping up with a valuable goal for his side this evening…

We’ve discussed ‘defenders scoring in big games’ before. Indeed, we were on Marquinhos the last time he found the net in the Champions League, in the semi finals back in April 2021.

The Brazilian scored on his PSG debut, way back in September 2013. That was a Champions League match, too…

Marquinhos has found the net for his club in 10 out of 11 seasons in Paris. He didn’t strike last term, although he still got one goal while on international duty. His last goal in a PSG shirt was in December 2022. That’s as long of a goalless drought (if you can use that phrase about a central defender) that he’s had in his whole PSG career…

Add in the fact that the Madrid club have defensive issues tonight (injuries and suspension), and just maybe the PSG captain can bother the usually so well-drilled Atletico back-line from set pieces and balls into the box this evening…

Odds of 10/1 and nearabouts are available in the Anytime Scorer market.

• And with big prices being a theme today… I should also remind you of more speculative options such as: Player to be Sent Off (Marquinhos 100/1 William Hill), First Carded Player (33/1 Skybet, BetVictor), First Goalscorer (25/1 Skybet, Boylesports), and Last Goalscorer (28/1 Boylesports)

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TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

PSG v Atletico Madrid

Champions League, tonight 8pm - TNT Sports Extra

• Player to be Carded: Marquinhos @ 15/2 (8.5) Skybet, 7/1 (8.0) BetVictor (‘Marquinhos Correa’), Boylesports, 13/2 (7.5) Bet365, 6/1 (7.0) Betfred
• Anytime Scorer: Marquinhos @ 10/1 (11.0) Betway, 9/1 (10.0) Skybet, Boylesports, SpreadEx, Sporting Index, 17/2 (9.5) William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, 8/1 (9.0) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Betfred

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I’ll be back ahead of the weekend with more standout stats and prices for you.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues