Wednesday 10th May 2023

In Across the Leagues today:

• Champions League Semi Final, 1st Legs…
• AC Milan v Inter Milan…
• Players to watch… 

Champions League tonight – same again at San Siro?

John Stones didn’t get a sniff of a goal last night. But then again, 50/1 shots aren’t supposed to…

The draw felt like a solid bet, though – and so it proved, with Real Madrid v Man City finishing 1-1 at the Bernabeu.

Bet365 actually nudged their best-price 27/10 (3.7) for the draw out to 11/4 (3.75) before kick-off. And there was plenty of 3.8 available on Betfair.

With a few player battles brewing in that tie, and all to play for on the scoreboard ahead of next week’s rematch at the Etihad, we should be in for a barnstorming 2nd leg.

The other Champions League semi final, 1st leg takes place at the San Siro tonight. And it’s an all-Italian affair, with AC and Inter both calling this stadium their home…

AC Milan v Inter Milan

8pm, BT Sport

A note again on our ‘knockout angles’ for these crunch late-season matches:

• Scoreboard comebacks, eg. Half Time/ Full Time turnarounds – especially in the 2nd legs…

• Ill-discipline – eg. high Total Cards tallies, Red Cards – again, especially when it’s do-or-die in the 2nd legs…

• Unlikely scorers – eg. defenders and midfielders popping up with crucial goals in the biggest matches…

In last night’s match, Real Madrid went in 1-0 up at half time, and Man City pulled it back to 1-1 in the second half. The goals came from two of the big names: Vinicius Junior and Kevin De Bruyne showing their class, respectively. There were 4 yellow cards in the game (2 for each team) – although there honestly could’ve been a lot more…

We’ve discussed hard-to-predict referees a few times this season. The topic is certainly a regular feature in the chats I have with my football-mad colleague, Shaun. The general theme for the big games seems to be – whether it’s the Premier League, FIFA World Cup, or UEFA Champions League – a ‘let the game flow’ mentality. Punctuated by seemingly irrational brandishing of cards for some incidents, with comparative leniency shown in others…

The bookies are betting Over 5.5 Cards for tonight’s Milan derby. A bet that has only paid out in half of their last 10 meetings in all competitions. Although there have been 3 red cards in that time…. when it kicks off between these two, it tends to really kick off…

On the player front, you can usually call anyone priced at below 2/1 (3.0) as a favourite in the Player to be Booked/ Carded markets. Bet365 have no fewer than 12 men in that price category today…

Last time the Milan clubs met in the Champions League, the tie was abandoned in the 2nd leg. Although that was due to trouble coming from the crowd more than the players on the pitch.

The 2022/23 league form tells us that Inter (4th) are just 2 points above AC Milan (5th) in the Serie A table. And with so much riding on this Champions League tie, we could see another close result this evening…

Key stat:

• Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 8 AC Milan games in a row in all comps. That run includes 5 draws, with 4 x 1-1 scores, and a 0-0

The draw can be backed at 2/1 in general here, and that’s the headline bet for us.

In the Correct Score market, 1-1 is the frontrunner at 5/1 in general. While Under 2.5 Goals is the odds-on favourite at 1/2 (1.5).

Players to watch…

If the big boys come to the fore and there are goals, the men at the top of the Scorer betting are Olivier Giroud and Rafael Leao for Milan. And Lautaro Martinez, Edin Dzeko, and Romelu Lukaku for Inter.

• Boylesports have got Zlatan Ibrahimovic as the favourite to score… even though the veteran is not in fact registered to play in this season’s competition for AC Milan

In the unlikely scorers department, midfielders Ismael Bennacer popped up with an important goal for Milan in the quarter finals. The Algerian international was on target again at the weekend, scoring in the 2-0 home league win against Lazio – a recent ‘burst’ of goal-scoring form that has seen him take his total for the season to 3 goals….

For Inter, Nicolo Barella found the net in both legs of the quarter finals. The Italian midfielder has got 8 goals for his club this season.

Bennacer can be backed at 12/1 to Score Anytime tonight. With Barella a standout 8/1 with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, compared to 5/1 (6.0) or 9/2 (5.5) in general – and 13/2 (7.5) with William Hill. Covering those two players looks a decent outsider scorer angle here.

As alluded to above, the Player to be Carded betting might be a game of take-your-pick, with a dozen players all priced at shorter than 2/1 with Bet365. The League Stats on our website show that Olivier Giroud, Rade Krunic, and Sandro Tonali are AC Milan’s most-carded players in Serie A this season. With Marcelo Brozovic and Nicolo Barella the most frequent card collectors for Inter.

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

AC Milan v Inter Milan

• Match Result: DRAW @ 21/10 (3.1) Bet365, BetVictor, Betway, 2/1 (3.0) general 

• Anytime Scorer: ISMAEL BENNACER @ 12/1 Bet365, Skybet, William Hill

• Anytime Scorer: NICOLO BARELLA @ 8/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Unibet, 13/2 (7.5) William Hill 

I’ll be back before the weekend, with our EFL Playoff treble… the action starts on Friday night…

• Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues