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A 100/1 Scotsman from Australia...

Wednesday 2nd September 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • New season picks…
  • Championship 2020/21…
  • Looking for Top Goalscorer value…

A 100/1 Scotsman from Australia…

The new English Football League season begins on 12th September. Starting today, we’ll be making a few measured moves in the 2020/21 ante post markets.

You and I will be targeting attractive prices, and Each Way opportunities. Keeping a keen eye out for any early-bird value.

Last summer, our pre-season analysis helped find 20/1 Premier League Top Goalscorer, Jamie Vardy, and 16/1 Serie A top scorer, Ciro Immobile. Along with 33/1 Ollie Watkins, who finished 2nd in the Championship for an Each Way payout at 1/4 odds.

It would be nice to land three bets like that every season. But there’s no crystal ball. Three things I can promise you, though. We’ll always be doing our homework and making informed decisions. We won’t be jumping on any bandwagons. And we’ll always be looking to keep the prices on our side.

We’ll be working our way around the markets and leagues. I’ve got a couple of Premier League angles in the pipeline. Later in the month, I’ll be moving my research on to Spain, Italy, Germany and beyond, too.

Today, we’re getting started in England, in the Championship…

Lyndon moves to London…

At the end of July, when we were looking at the new-season Top Goalscorer market for the Scottish Premiership, Lyndon Dykes was one of the names in the notebook.

At the time, I filed the 24-year-old under players with a question mark by their name. Looking back at that article from 31st July, we observed:

When you’re making a season-long ante post bet, question marks by a player are not a good thing. You want stability. You want to know he’s in the manager’s plan. You can’t score goals if you’re not on the pitch. You can’t win the top scorer award in Scotland if you end up signing for a new club in a different league or country…

…Australian forward Lyndon Dykes is also being talked highly of. After 9 goals for Livingston last season, he’s linked with a move to Rangers – but then again, so are several players right now. Dykes might even end up in a different league altogether. He’s a top price 33/1 with Bet365, and 20/1 elsewhere.

Since then, the 2020/21 season has begun in Scotland. Dykes scored two goals in three games for for Livingston, both from the penalty spot. Before being signed by Championship side, QPR

That move down south to England and Queens Park Rangers sees Dykes team up with former (Glasgow) Rangers boss, Mark Warburton, who took over at Loftus Road last year.

Consulting the history books…

A cursory glance at the bookmakers’ ante post markets for the Championship 2020/21 suggest that hopes are not particularly high for QPR to make a bid for promotion to the Premier League.

The London club are 50/1 outsiders for the title, 16/1 and 20/1 for promotion, and just 5/1 to be relegated (QPR finished midtable last season, in 13th).

However, the history books show that you don’t need to be playing for a title-chasing team to be in with a shout in the Top Goalscorer market…

  • Last season, for example, Huddersfield finished 18th in the Championship, just three points above the relegation zone. Their striker Karlan Grant got 19 goals, enough to land 4th place in the scorer chart, and one of the Each Way places. This season, Grant is a 20/1 shot – but he goes in that ‘question mark’ category, with transfer speculation ongoing, and the window extended until October

And if we go back over the last decade, the title-winning club & league top scorer combo has only occurred on two occasions:

Championship Top Scorer

Avoiding the obvious…

Having been relegated back down from the Premier League this summer, Norwich & Teemu Pukki are the favourites for some repeat business in those Outright markets. The Canaries are 6/1 favourites to win the Championship in 2020/21. And their Finnish forward is 8/1 at best to be Top Goalscorer again.

Rather than back the favourite from Norwich. Or jump on the bandwagon with new Brentford signing, Ivan Toney (12/1). And noting that last season we got the value on Toney’s new teammate, Ollie Watkins at 33/1, as this time he’s just 10/1 (and may yet sign for a Premier League club). I’m drawn to the names lower down the betting list, at much bigger prices…

Back Dykes before his debut…

Lyndon Dykes was impressive enough in the Scottish top-flight last season to have several clubs interested in his signature, including Rangers.

And having recently decided to play International football for Scotland (and not Australia, where he was born), now could be a good time to back Dykes at a big price, before he starts garnering any more attention…

Having committed to Scotland, Dykes has been named in Steve Clarke’s Scotland squad for Friday night’s Nations League match v Israel. The bookies have installed Lyndon as the 5/1 favourite in the First Goalscorer market, and 17/10 (2.7) market leader to score Anytime.

If Dykes makes a fast start for Scotland, then his Championship odds could take a tumble. And the same goes, of course, if he hits the ground round for QPR in their opening league match v Nottingham Forest a week on Saturday (12th Sept).

In the Championship 2020/21 Top Goalscorer market, Bet365 are a top price 100/1 for Dykes, with 80/1 and 66/1 available elsewhere.

Dykes could prove a good signing for QPR. And with four Each Way places on offer at a quarter of the odds, he could also prove to be a good outside bet.

We’ll likely be having a couple of Each Way picks in the Championship. At big prices, Dykes is our first man in the book today.

Today’s pick

Championship 2020/21

  • Top Goalscorer: Lyndon Dykes @ 100/1 Each Way with Bet365, 80/1 Betfred, 66/1 BetVictor, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet

Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-4 places.

I’ll be back on Friday, when we’re be making our first moves in the Premier League.

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues