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Cheering on the Saints and Shrimps...

Thursday 28th January 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

  • 2020/21 Outrights…
  • FA Cup outsiders…
  • Morecambe in League Two…

Cheering on the Saints and Shrimps…

It’s a funny ol’ season, and it continues to be so…

So far, only one of this week’s 9 midweek games in the Premier League has produced a home win. And that was an against-the-odds result, with Burnley a 3/1 victor v Aston Villa.

And for the second week running, there’s been a 10/1 shock on the road. With Sheffield United winning 2-1 at Man Utd last night. Following on from Burnley’s 1-0 win at Liverpool last Thursday.

Burnley’s 33/1 comeback…

Burnley’s win against Villa also produced a Half Time/ Full Time (HT/ FT) turnaround

As we noted in Monday’s update, so far this season, the Premier League is running below average for these outcomes…

From 0-1 down at half time, Burnley came back to win 3-2. In the HT/ FT market, that Villa/ Burnley flip-flop was a 33/1 shot.

  • There have now been 4 such HT/ FT comebacks this season. Which is still half as many as the 10-season Premier League average suggests we should have seen by this point

With big odds knocking about, these reversals are worth looking out for. Not easy to find, of course – but the rewards are there. So far you and I have been on one of those, with Man Utd coming from behind to win at West Ham last month, at 25/1.

Corners update…

Last night in the Premier League, Aston Villa and Brighton continued their impressive corner-winning form.

Villa won the Most Corners at Burnley, 2-4. And Brighton bossed the corners tally 10-0 in their 0-0 draw v Fulham.

St Johnstone didn’t frank their 75% home strike-rate in the Scottish Premiership, though. A 0-0 draw v Aberdeen saw the away team win the Corners Match Bet, 2-6.

  • Villa have now won the Most Corners in 70% of away games this season
  • Brighton have landed Most Corners bets in 90% of their home games

Long-term long-shots…

In terms of season-long selections in the Outright markets, it only takes one big-price success to make a whole book of bets come up smelling of roses…

That’s easier said than done, of course.

Last season, in the Top Goalscorer markets, the likes of Jamie Vardy (20/1) and Ciro Immobile (16/1) took care of business in the ante-post portfolio. With 33/1 Ollie Watkins placed for an Each Way payout, too.

Perhaps one of these ‘outside chances’ will be the team to deliver in 2020/21...

FA Cup chances…

If you’re following my long-term picks, then we’re on Southampton for the FA Cup at 28/1 & 25/1.

And Sheffield United at 66/1, 60/1 & 50/1.

With Each Way terms of 1/2 odds 1-2 places (eg. to reach the final).

Both our clubs are through to the 5th round. That’s one win away from the quarter finals.

  • Southampton go to fellow Premier League side Wolves
  • Sheff Utd are at home to Bristol City of the Championship

Those ties will be played on or around 10th February.

It was good to hear Southampton manager Ralph Hasenhuttl’s comments after his side’s 4th round victory:

"This is the FA Cup and we are this season in a better position in the table so we don’t have to rest any players, because we are not in a relegation battle … for us it is a competition where we want to go as far as possible”

The bookmakers have responded to the latest results – with Southampton knocking out FA Cup holders Arsenal – by trimming the Saints down to 16/1 and 14/1 in the Outright Winner market.

Sheff Utd are still 50/1 with Bet365, and 40/1 in general. The Blades showed what they’re capable of last night, winning at Man Utd in the league.

We’ve got two good-looking prices on our side there. And all to play for in the 5th round, Last 16 ties next month.

And talking of decent prices…

League Two contenders…

On 18th January we took stock of the League Two table, with the season hitting the halfway point.

Morecambe were the team that appealed at the odds, coming off the back of a 2-0 loss at Leyton Orient the weekend before…

We flagged up the Shrimps at 50/1 and 40/1+ for the title. With Each Way terms of 1/4 odds for 1-3 places (eg. automatic promotion).

As well as at 9/1 and 8/1 for Promotion by any means (eg. including the playoffs).

Since then, Morecambe have played three games, collecting a healthy 7 points:

Morecambe 1 Walsall 1
Morecambe 3 Colchester 0
Exeter 0 Morecambe 2

Tuesday night’s result at Exeter was a good one. Morecambe’s win-loss record has a nice symmetry to it this season, with 6 home wins, and 6 away.

Next up, a home match against 8th place Tranmere Rovers this Saturday. The oddsmakers have our team as the 5/4 (2.25) favourites to take all 3 points. It won’t be easy though, as Tranmere arrive on the back of three consecutive home wins.

After that, the Shrimps have a handful of matches against teams that are all currently residing in the bottom third of the table:

Stevenage (A)
Bolton (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Bradford (A)
Barrow (A)

As we noted when first highlighting Morecambe, the top of the table is very bunched-up. With games in hand and fixture rearrangements thrown into the mix, too.

Here’s how the top of League Two looks at the moment. Just 6 pts separate the teams from 1st down to 10th…

League Two Table

And here’s the top of the Outright Winner market with Betway, as things stand:

League Two Outright Winner

From 50/1, Morecambe are now trading at 25/1 for the title.

In the Promotion market, from a top price 9/1, the Shrimps are now around 4/1.

They don’t hand out any prizes in January. But those FA Cup and League Two picks are exciting prices to have in the book, for sure.

I’ll be back tomorrow, with analysis, advice, and standout stats for tackling the weekend fixtures.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues