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Chelsea v Atletico Madrid - Savic is value tonight...

Wednesday 17th March 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Standout Stats…
  • Accrington v Sunderland…
  • The case for a 7/1 scorer…

Chelsea v Atletico Madrid – Savic is value tonight…

The daily football schedule continues this evening. The action includes a pair of Champions League ties, half a dozen Championship matches, and a handful of games across League One, League Two, Serie A in Italy, and La Liga in Spain.

In the Coupe de France – that’s the French Cup to you and me – it’s PSG v Lille at 4.45pm. Those sides are 2nd and 1st in the league right now, embroiled in a proper title race along with Lyon, as discussed in yesterday’s email.

  • PSG have won the French league 7 seasons out of 8, and the Cup 5 times out of 6 

Standout Stats…

If you’d like a straight-up stats match-up for today’s football, then our Across the Leagues website does that job for you…

Birmingham v Reading is identified as a highly-rated Under 10.5 Corners contender.

The Blues and the Royals are the top two teams in the Championship for that bet:

Championship Corners Stats...

Good stats are one thing. Nice prices are another. The odds are not too exciting when it comes to tonight’s market. Under 10.5 Corners for Birmingham v Reading is odds-on at 1/2 (1.5) with Skybet, 1/3 (1.33) with Paddy Power.

Searching for Scorer value…

Here are the players in my Anytime Scorer notebook today…

In the Champions League:

Bayern Munich v Lazio (aggregate: 4-1)

Bayern goal machine Robert Lewandowski is in even more sensational scoring form than usual this season. The 32-year-old Polish striker has racked up 40 goals in 38 appearances in all competitions for club & country.

  • Lewandowski has scored in 6 Bayern games in a row, and in 16 of his last 19

Again, super stats are one thing – but the bottom-line betting is another. Lewandowski has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 25 of his 40 total appearances this season. He’s 1/3 (1.33) to score tonight. Backed at that price to level stakes in every game throughout the campaign to date, the ROI on Lewandowski is in the negative, at -12%.

For the away team this evening, Lazio’s lead striker is Ciro Immobile. He’s 15/8 (2.88) to get on the scoresheet. Immobile is currently on a six-game run without a goal.

In the Championship:

Nottingham Forest v Norwich City

Teemu Pukki is 2nd in the Championship Top Goalscorer charts…

  • Pukki has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 7 of his last 8 games for Norwich – and 5 of those have also paid out on First Goalscorer

The Finnish forward is Evens (2.0) to score Anytime against Forest tonight, and 5/2 (3.5) to score First. Applying the season-to-date method again, the numbers show that backing Pukki at those prices would’ve only just seen you scrape above break-even from a 32-game set of bets.

Now, if you held a gun to my head and demanded I give you a name for Forest v Norwich, I would say Pukki. But the price says he’s not the best value.

In League One:

Accrington Stanley v Sunderland

There are two main men on the Scorer radar here. For Sunderland, Charlie Wyke is the gun-to-the-head name. He’s around 50-50 for Anytime Scorer payouts for the season, which, like Pukki, makes it hard to make a profit from him at Even-Money a pop.

This game doescontain a couple of attractive prices however…

Sunderland have kept six clean sheets in their last seven games in all comps. But they’ve conceded in three of their last five on the road. And if there’s any hangover from Sunday’s EFL Trophy victory at Wembley, then Dion Charles could be the one to take advantage for Accrington…

  • Dion Charles has scored in 3 of his last 4 games, and in 7 out of 14

The 25-year-old has delivered in the Anytime Scorer market in 12 out of 30 starts this season. At today’s standout Anytime odds of 5/2 (3.5), that makes him a profitable player over the course of the campaign (40% ROI). Even more so when we consult the First Goalscorer stats:

  • Charles has landed First Goalscorer bets 7 times out of 30. At today’s top price of 7/1 (8.0), that puts his first-scorer ROI at a healthy 87%

In Accrington’s last two home games, Dion has opened the scoring within the first quarter of an hour.

I want to stay on the side of value here. Dion Charles catches the eye in both Scorer lists today, Anytime & First.

Charles could be plying his trade higher up the leagues next season. The transfer rumour-mill suggests Brentford are after his signature. With an International call-up for Northern Ireland on the cards, too. He’s one to keep an eye on.

Sticking with Savic…

Back to the Champions League for my final player observation of the day…

Chelsea v Atletico Madrid (aggregate: 1-0)

On March 10th we noted that Atletico Madrid defender Stefan Savic is the most-booked man in Spain this season…

Savic didn’t get booked that day, but he was back in the cards on Saturday, receiving a yellow in a 0-0 draw at Getafe in La Liga.

  • Stefan Savic has been booked in 13 of his last 20 games, and in 4 of his last 7

The 30-year-old risks picking up a one-match European ban if he gets carded again this evening. But that shouldn’t be too high in the thinking; if Atletico don’t beat Chelsea, then he’ll be out of the competition anyway.

Again, price is king. Savic can be backed at 13/5 (3.6) To be Carded. A total of 16 yellow cards from 35 appearances for club & country this season makes that a profitable proposition (65% ROI).

TODAY’S PICKS

From the analysis above, here are my picks for today…

Accrington v Sunderland, 7pm

  • Anytime Scorer: Dion Charles @ 5/2 (3.5) Betway, 12/5 (3.4) Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
  • First Goalscorer: Dion Charles @ 7/1 (8.0) Betfred, 13/2 (7.5) Bet365, Betway

Chelsea v Atletico Madrid, 8pm

  • Played to be Carded: Stefan Savic @ 13/5 (3.6) William Hill, Skybet, BetVictor, 5/2 (3.5) Betway

Cups are a big theme this week. We’ve got the FA Cup quarter finals coming up at the weekend. And the Europa League Last 16 tomorrow…

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues