Wednesday 3rd February 2021
In Across the Leagues today:
There were four Premier League games last night. One ended 9-0, two of them saw a double sending-off, and there was one half time/ full time comeback. And I haven't even mentioned VAR…
Needless to say, it continues to be a crazy season...
Southampton were down to 10 men after just two minutes. So that all but put a bullet in my latest HT/ FT attempt. Man Utd were 4-0 up by the break, and 9-0 by the end. That 9-0 Correct Score was 150/1 with William Hill.
In that context, my 22/1 and 50/1 speculations in the HT/ FT market don't seem that far-fetched at all.
As it turned out, Sheffield United became the latest team to pull off the big come-from-behind result. Trailing 0-1 at the interval, the Blades fought back to win 2-1. The HT West Brom/ FT Sheff Utd outcome was 28/1.
We've now seen five on those 45 mins/ 90 mins scoreboard turnarounds in the Premier League this season. The ratio is up to 2.39%. Still a bit off the 4.16% season average. But starting to catch up.
Here are the five Half Time/ Full Time flip-flops that we’ve seen so far in the Premier League in 2020/21:
29th Nov: Southampton 2 Man Utd 3 (HT: 2-0)
5th Dec: West Ham 1 Man Utd 3 (HT: 1-0)
16th Jan: Wolves 2 West Brom 3 (HT: 2-1)
27th Jan: Burnley 3 Aston Villa 2 (HT: 0-1)
2nd Feb: Sheff Utd 2 West Brom 1 (HT: 0-1)
Man Utd and West Brom have both featured twice.
There are six more midweek Premier League games to come across today & tomorrow. Then a full fixture list again at the weekend.
In yesterday’s feature match in the Coppa Italia, Juventus won 2-1 at Inter Milan in the 1st leg of their semi final tie.
There were 9 yellow cards (90 Booking Points). Landing Over 4.5 Cards and Over 45.5 Pts bets before half time.
That man Arturo Vidal collected another booking, too. Almost literally talking himself into the ref’s book, gesticulating a little too enthusiastically when accusing Cristiano Ronaldo of diving.
After that Italian result, and 8 yellows in the Lisbon derby in Portugal on Monday, we're going for the European high-cards hat-trick tonight...
We’re off to Spain this time, and the Copa del Rey quarter finals, with Granada v Barcelona (8pm, Premier Sports).
Here are the standout stats to inform our betting decisions in this one:
The La Liga stats on our website show that Granada are ranked No.2 in the division for Over 4.5 Cards bets this season, with 82% of their home games going that way.
Add in the fact that each of the last 8 meetings between these clubs have seen 5+ cards, and you have a good argument for betting ‘Over’ again here.
As we saw last night in Italy, the cup-tie element only adds fuel to the fire. Over 5.5 Cards is my pick here, with Even Money (2.0) available.
Sticking with the Cards & Booking Points stats, two games are good match-ups on our website today in the Premier League head-to-head comparisons:
Liverpool v Brighton (8.15pm BT Sport) is 100% v 100% on the home v away Last 5 Games form for Under 3.5 Cards.
The bookies aren’t offering much reward for good behaviour at Anfield tonight, though. Bet365’s line is tight, at Under 2.5 Cards. And Skybet are short odds-on for Under 40 Booking Points (eg. Under 3.5 Cards), at just 1/5 (1.2).
There’s a much better price on offer in the early kick off at Turf Moor…
Our stats clearly identify Burnley v Man City (6pm, BT Sport) as a contender for backing the home team for the Most Cards:
Burnley have the 3rd-highest home strike-rate in the Premier League for this bet. Paying out in the Most Cards and Most Booking Points markets in 6 out of 9 games.
In comparison, Man City are the best-behaved team in the division. With just 3 payouts from 20 games – and only one on the road.
Our Totals tables also show that City have received the fewest number of yellow cards in away games. With just 10 yellows to their name, from 9 away trips.
Taking those convincing stats into consideration, Burnley look an appealing price for this bet at around Evens (2.0) today.
From the analysis above, here are my picks for today…
Granada v Barcelona
Copa del Rey, 8pm – Premier Sports
Also available: 60+ Booking Points @ Evens with Skybet. Over 50.5 Booking Points @ 20/21 (1.95) with Boylesports. Over 55 Points @ 19/20 (1.95) with William Hill. Over 50 Points @ 10/11 (1.91) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook.
Burnley v Man City
Premier League, 6pm – BT Sport
Also available: Most Cards: Burnley @ 11/10 (2.1) with Betway. Most Booking Points @ 4/5 (1.8) with Boylesports. Burnley 0 Card Handicap @ 5/6 (1.83) with Bet365.
Cards & Booking Pts markets explained here.
I’ll be back tomorrow with an update, and a word or two about ‘long-shot’ betting.
Enjoy the football…