Wednesday 20th January 2021
In Across the Leagues today:
Rochdale’s goals dried up last night…
A 1-0 defeat at Doncaster didn’t provide the entertainment needed to make it a Win & Both Teams to Score outcome this time.
Prior to yesterday’s result, Rochdale had been on a 6-game streak for Over 4.5 Goals (!). With score-lines of 3-3, 4-4, 3-3, 1-4, 0-5, 4-1.
Across the Leagues member John B had taken note of those high scores. Latching on for a 60/1 Correct Score winner last weekend. Good work!
“Hi despite the weekend’s [Win & BTTS] treble not winning, I still made a still made a profit. As you know when you highlight scores in the emails I usually place £2 on each. This weekend was no different, so I backed all the Rochdale-Wigan scores mentioned including the 3-3 which came in at 60/1. So with £120 from one bet, I couldn’t lose at the weekend, so thanks for mentioning that, and please keep doing so”
Elsewhere in the busy midweek schedule, our FA Cup outsider selection Southampton (28/1 & 25/1 Each Way) moved through to the 4th round, with a 2-0 win against Shrewsbury.
Next up for Southampton – a home tie v Arsenal this weekend.
The action continues this evening, with games in the Premier League and Championship. As well as a scattering of league fixtures across Germany, France, and Scotland.
See below for my take on Freiburg v Eintracht Frankfurt in the Bundesliga.
But first, as promised, a word on the Copa del Rey in Spain…
Still to finish…
Real Sociedad are in an unusual position today. They travel to Cordoba for a place in the Last 16… with last season’s cup final still yet to be played.
With the 2019/20 competition curtailed by coronavirus, the outstanding Copa del Rey final between Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao was called off.
Both clubs then turned down the chance to play the final behind closed doors last August. At present, they’re hoping to rearrange and finally sort out the honours, possibly in April, and maybe even with fans in attendance.
The as yet undecided 2019/20 event might explain to some extent why the bookies have been so cautious about putting up an Outright Winner for the current, 2020/21 Copa del Rey.
As far as I can see, only Betway have got involved. And no surprises, that the Spanish big two are the favourites to lift the cup in 2021. Barcelona are 9/4 (3.25), and Real Madrid are 5/2 (3.5).
Home edge for the underdogs?
In this competition, the lower-league club plays at home in the early rounds. That certainly adds some intrigue when it comes to hunting for shocks…
Over the weekend, there were 12 Copa del Rey ties completed, and four of them saw the lower-tier home team upset their La Liga visitors:
Almeria 5 Alaves 0
Girona 2 Cadiz 0
Vallecano 2 Elche 0
Navalcarnero 3 Eibar 1
The fact that there was only one juicy price in there though (Navalcarnero were 6/1), suggests that some of the top-flight clubs aren’t taking this too seriously, and not putting out their strongest starting line-ups.
Those other three upsets were all around the Even-money (2.0) mark. Also, in a near-shock, La Liga side Villarreal needed a last-gasp goal to win in Tenerife, 1-0.
The round of 32 continues this evening with two ties:
Cordoba v Real Sociedad (6pm)
Alcoyano v Real Madrid (8pm)
‘Reigning finalists’ Sociedad are 1/2 (1.5) to win today. And league champions Madrid are very short odds-on, at 2/11 (1.18).
On the underdog side, Cordoba are 6/1. And Alcoyano are as big as 18/1 (William Hill).
I love an upset, but it helps to apply common sense and a bit of research, too. For example, it usually takes another top-flight side to beat Real Madrid in this competition…
Last year, Real were beaten by Sociedad, who as we’ve established, went on to reach the final. The year before, Barcelona beat Madrid in the semis. In 2017/18, fellow La Liga side Leganes knocked out Real in the quarters.
There are two more Copa del Rey games on Thursday, including Barcelona. I’ll report back tomorrow.
In Tuesday’s analysis we looked at the German Bundesliga top scorers list ‘without Robert Lewandowski.’ Looking beyond the perennially short-priced Bayern Munich striker, three men are next in line in the 2020/21 charts…
Erling Braut Haaland drew a blank in Borussia Dortmund’s 2-1 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen last night. Wout Weghorst scored his 12th goal of the season, with Wolfsburg winning 2-0 at Mainz.
The midweek Bundesliga fixtures continue this evening. And another 12-goal striker is on my list here…
Andre Silva featured in our pre-season notes, signing a permanent deal at Eintracht Frankfurt having impressed when on loan last season.
The Portuguese attacker has been in fine form. He’s landed Anytime Scorer bets in 5 of his last 10 outings for Frankfurt.
Tonight’s opponents Freiburg have only kept 3 Clean Sheets in 16 league games this season. Frankfurt have found the net in 15 of their 16 Bundesliga matches so far. The only blank was away at champions Bayern Munich.
Goals are expected here, with the bookies making Both Teams to Score a 1/2 (1.5) favourite. The Bundesliga stats on our site show that Freiburg home v Frankfurt away is a 75% v 62% match-up on the Both Teams to Score strike-rates.
Taking Silva to score is my route, at 6/4 (2.5).
Also of note…
Luka Jovic has just returned to Frankfurt, on loan, after an ultimately failed £54 million move to Real Madrid in summer 2019. On his German league comeback last weekend, Jovic came off the bench and scored twice in a 3-1 win over Schalke, adding to an opening goal from Silva.
In his whole time at Madrid, Jovic managed just 2 goals in total. He’s one to look out for now he’s back in the Bundesliga. Although my advice would be to wait until he’s regularly making the starting line-up (or if you’re watching the games, take a look at the in-play betting, if Jovic comes off the bench with time left on the clock).
For today, I’m sticking with Silva.
From the analysis above, here is my pick for today…
Freiburg v Eintracht Frankfurt
7.30pm, BT Sport
I’ll be back tomorrow, with a special focus on the latest Premier League stats and markets.
Enjoy the football…