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EFL Cup tonight - expect a reaction at Turf Moor...

Wednesday 30th September 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Midweek fixtures…
  • Luis Suarez is back…
  • Burnley v Man City tonight…

EFL Cup tonight – expect a reaction at Turf Moor…

There’s plenty of midweek football for us this week. There are league fixtures in Italy and Spain this evening. And in England, teams are battling it out for a place in the EFL Cup quarter finals…

We’ve got a 25/1 interest in tonight’s Serie A game between Lazio and Atalanta. If you missed yesterday’s analysis, you can catch up on that one here. Kick-off is 7.45pm.

Luis Suarez is back…

Atletico Madrid got their La Liga campaign underway with an emphatic 6-1 home win v Granada on Sunday…

New signing Luis Suarez made headlines there. The Uruguayan came off the bench for his debut.

Despite not entering the field of play until the 71st minute, the former Liverpool and Barcelona forward still managed to very much get in on the action…

Suarez scored two goals, provided an assist within a minute of coming on, and also hit the post – and was involved in a VAR penalty decision, too (not given).

The bookies have Suarez as the Even Money (2.0) favourite to find the net again this evening, with his new Atletico side away at newly-promoted Huesca.

Provided he makes the starting line-up, the 33-year-old is priced as the 3/1 (4.0) favourite for First Goalscorer.

Don’t rule out a younger man, though...

Atletico’s £113 million 20-year-old Joao Felix also found the net on Sunday. The Portuguese youngster – widely tipped as a rising star of world football – is a touch bigger in the betting tonight, 4/1 to open the scoring.

I’ve got my eye on another young player to get in on the goals today…

Burnley v Man City tonight…

There are four EFL Cup (Carabao Cup) ties this evening. After Tottenham beat Chelsea on penalties last night, there are three more all-Premier League clashes on the Wednesday schedule:

Brighton v Man Utd
Everton v West Ham
Burnley v Man City

And the game we mentioned on Monday, Newport County of League Two taking on Newcastle.

Burnley v Man City is the one we’re focusing on. After a humiliating 2-5 home loss v Leicester City at the weekend, City & Pep Guardiola will obviously be looking to bounce back…

The ‘wounded animal’ reaction could be bad news for Burnley, who have not fared well against Man City in recent times. Five meetings over the last two seasons have all ended in City victories, with the score-lines: 5-0, 1-4, 0-1, 5-0, 5-0.

One of those 5-0 scores was in the FA Cup, and the other four results were all in the Premier League.

City can be expected to rotate the squad, but such is their strength in depth, resting players hasn’t been a hindrance to them in this competition…

The sky-blue half of Manchester have taken this League Cup trophy home three seasons running, and five times out of the last seven. Man City are 5/2 (3.5) favourites to make it four in a row in 2020/21.

As the lopsided head-to-head would suggest, Guardiola’s side are heavy favourites to win and win well this evening:

  • 4/11 (1.36) win in normal time
  • Evens (2.0) to win by 2+ goals (-1 Match Handicap)
  • 5/2 (3.5) to by 3+ goals (-2 Match Handicap)

Roaring back…

Last season, Man City had a good record of bouncing back after defeat with statement score-lines. They only lost twice in a row on one occasion (v Man Utd and then Tottenham). Apart from that, it was straight back to winning ways, and usually in style…

For example:

After losing 3-2 v Norwich, Man City won five in a row in all competitions, including two 3-0 wins, and a massive 8-0 (eight-nil) triumph over Watford.

After losing 0-2 v Wolves, City again roared back with five straight victories. Including a 5-1 score-line, and another 3-0.

After losing 1-2 v Man Utd, City reeled off four wins, with scores of 4-1, 3-0, 3-1, 3-1.

And after losing 3-2 at Wolves, the Etihad club won their next five games. Posting 4-1, 3-1 and 6-1 scores.

If you fancy a fruity score-line and a fancy price at Burnley tonight, the Correct Score market could be the place to go.

Industry-best Correct Score prices from Skybet today:

Man City 3-0 is 9/1
Man City 3-1 is 10/1
Man City 4-1 is 18/1
Man City 5-0 is 33/1

Phil likes the Cup…

If City are to roar back to winning ways this evening, then Phil Foden at 2/1 could prove decent value in the Anytime Scorer market…

The 20-year-old has got two goals in three games so far in the new season, including the winner against Bournemouth in this competition last week.

Cup outings have been successful for the England youngster:

  • So far is his still-fledgling career, Foden has scored in 15 separate matches for Man City – and 9 of those have been cup games

Odds of 2/1 appeal for Foden here, team-sheet permitting of course. In comparison, 17-year-old forward Liam Delap, who also scored in the 2-1 EFL Cup win over Bournemouth last Thursday, is in with the Even Money favourites tonight.

Today’s picks


Burnley v Man City

  • Anytime Scorer: Phil Foden @ 21/10 (3.1) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 2/1 (3.0) 888 Sport, Unibet

I’ll be back tomorrow with more angles and analysis for you. We’ll be looking at the latest round of Europa League Qualifying.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues