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The flying right-back at 14/1...

Thursday 5th November 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Europa League match-day 3…
  • Benfica v Rangers, 5.55pm…
  • AC Milan v Lille, 8pm…

The flying right-back at 14/1…

For the second night running, seven of the eight Champions League game went Over 2.5 Goals.

That makes it 14 out of 16 for that stat across match-day three this week. That high-goals trend is something to keep in mind when the Champions League continues later this month.

The one game that didn’t go Over 2.5 Goals in yesterday’s UEFA fixtures was the 1-1 draw between Zenit St Petersburg and Lazio – the match that we focused on with the Italian side at 9/2 (5.5) to Win & Both Teams to Score. Lazio equalised late on, but couldn’t complete a full comeback, having trailed 1-0 at half time.

That market remains of interest to us where high-scoring teams are involved, offering larger returns than the standard win prices in the Match Result betting. See below for a Win & Both Teams to Score selection for this evening.

It’s match-day three in the Europa League. There are 24 games on the list. Two of which get our attention today, starting with one of the early kick-offs…

Benfica v Rangers (5.55pm)

Benfica’s Luis Pizzi was an Anytime Scorer pick for us earlier this week in the Portuguese league. The penalty-taking midfielder is around 5/2 (3.5) to find the net this evening. That’s a larger price than we got for him on Monday.

So far this season, Pizzi has scored in both of Benfica’s Europa League fixtures – and in each of his last four appearances in this competition overall.

Not for the first time in this campaign, penalties could be a theme to latch onto here:

  • There has been a penalty scored in 3 of Benfica’s last 4 games in all competitions – 2 of which were for Benfica, both scored by Pizzi
  • 5 of last the 9 Rangers games have seen penalties scored – all for Rangers, and all converted by James Tavernier

Rangers’ flying right-back James Tavernier is enjoying a prolific start to the season in front of goal. The club captain has got 10 goals in 18 appearances, with all 10 coming in his last 13 games.

In the Scottish Premiership stats on our site, only Hibernian striker Kevin Nisbet (4) has produced more First Goalscorer payouts than the Rangers defender (3).

On the overall form in all comps this season, the Glasgow club’s penalty taker has an even more eye-catching record:

  • 6 of Tavernier’s 9 scoring appearances have been the first goal of the game
  • 7 of his 10 goals this season have been scored within the first 25 minutes of the match
  • 6 of Tavernier’s 10 goals have been penalties

With the penalty potential indicated by the recent results of both clubs, backing each team’s spot-kick taker could pay dividends here – Pizzi and Tavernier. Both men are also outside chances from open play.

And at the prices, Tavernier in particular is one to follow for First Goalscorer at attractive odds, with 14/1, 12/1 and 11/1 available.

AC Milan v Lille (8pm)

These are two of the form teams in Europe this season:

  • AC Milan have won 9 out of 11 games in all comps, and are unbeaten in 28 stretching back to March
  • Lille are 14 games without defeat (11 this season)

Currently 2nd in French Ligue 1, Lille have scored in 19 matches in a row in all comps, going back to January.

Milan have scored in each of their last 23 matches. So far this season, the Serie A leaders have scored at least twice in all 11 outings in all comps. Top scorer Zlatan Ibramihovic has got eight goals in seven appearances.

Three of the Italian club’s last four wins have paid out on Win & Both Teams to Score, with score-lines of 2-1, 3-1 and 2-1. With Lille’s consistent scoring record in the mix, odds of 5/2 (3.5) for Milan & Both Teams to Score appeal, compared to the odds-on 8/11 (1.73) for the straight-up home win.

Today’s picks

Here’s a summary of the standout bets highlighted in today’s analysis…

Europa League

Benfica v Rangers
5.55pm – BT Sport

  • Anytime Scorer: Luis Pizzi @ 11/4 (3.75) with Betway, 5/2 (3.5) Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, NetBet, 10Bet
  • Anytime Scorer: James Tavernier @ 11/2 (6.5) with Betfred, 4/1 (5.0) in general
  • First Goalscorer: James Tavernier @ 14/1 with Betfred, 12/1 Boylesports, 11/1 in general

AC Milan v Lille
8pm – BT Sport

  • AC Milan to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 5/2 (3.5) with Bet365, Betway, 12/5 (3.4) in general

I’ll be back on Friday with angles and analysis taking in the weekend fixtures, across the leagues…

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues