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Broken-record betting at 3/1...

Thursday 26th November 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Europa League tonight…
  • Rangers v Benfica…
  • Tavernier continues to be value…

Broken-record betting at 3/1…

Just three of Wednesday night’s eight Champions League games went over the 2.5 Goals line…

Two of those were the short-price options I mentioned. Borussia Monchengladbach winning 4-0 v Shakhtar Donetsk, and Bayern Munich beat Salzburg, 3-1.

As noted in yesterday’s preview, Over 2.5 Goals in the Bayern Munich game was just 1/5 (1.2) at best; even shorter with the majority of firms.

And if odds-on prices like that don’t bother you, then Robert Lewandowski to score Anytime in that Bayern game was a 1/4 (1.25) shot…

It’s hard to make Harry pay…

Following on from Cristiano Ronaldo scoring at the same 1/4 price for Juventus on Tuesday, tonight’s super-short odds-on scorer is Harry Kane, for Tottenham v Ludogorets. You’ll do well to see any better than 4/11 (1.36) for Harry today.

Odds like those are virtually unbackable for me. And for good reason:

For example, if you’d put your hard-earned cash on Kane to score Anytime at 4/11 in every game he’s played for club & country this season. Then you’d have placed 21 bets, and had nine winners. At £10 stakes, you’d be £87 down (-41% ROI).

A 24-match Europa League fixture list like this evening’s one will have many punters bundling together Match Result accas. And I wish them well. Fifteen of the 24 games feature a team at odds-on to win. And seven of those are odds-on Away Wins. That’s not something I’ll be getting involved with this evening.

I’m concentrating on one game, and one market…

Rangers v Benfica

These two sides employ three players that have appeared in my write-ups several times in recent weeks….

Benfica’s rising star Darwin Nunez (currently being linked with a move to Man City) is out tonight. He’s tested positive for coronavirus, so that’s him out of the equation for a couple of weeks.

The other two names on my list are James Tavernier for Rangers and Luis Pizzi for Benfica. Those two are both chief penalty-takers for their clubs.

After a 3-3 draw in Portugal last time out, there’s a fair case to expect goals tonight. Benfica in particular bring some noteworthy form on that front:

  • Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 9 out of 11 Benfica games in all competitions this season
  • Benfica have conceded 9 goals in their last 3 games

James Tavernier has scored in 11 of his 21 games this season. Referring back to that Harry Kane price example above, staking a tenner on Tavernier to score Anytime at odds of 2/1 (3.0) in every game would’ve so far generated a £120 profit (57% ROI).

We got the Rangers right-back at 11/5 (3.2) in the league last weekend. He’s available at a standout 16/5 (4.2) and 13/5 (3.6) in Europe tonight.

  • Rangers have scored 8 penalties across their last 12 games – and Tavernier has converted all of them

Pizzi has landed Anytime Scorer bets in three of his 11 appearances in 2020/21. If backed at odds of 3/1, as is available tonight, the £10-bet-in-every game method for the Benfica midfielder would’ve so far produced a slight profit, £10 in total (9% ROI).

The Europa League form bolsters the case for Pizzi here. Three of his four goals this season have come in the UEFA competition, with two Anytime payouts from three matches.

The bookies are going 4/6 (1.67) for Over 2.5 Goals in this one, and 4/7 (1.57) or shorter for Both Teams to Score.

There are certainly good grounds to expect goals this evening in the Europa League: earlier this month, match-day 3 produced a total of 93 goals – a new record for the competition.

Those two 3/1 Anytime Scorers are my price selections for tonight. I might be starting to sound like a broken record with regards to James Tavernier. But that doesn’t matter. Because he keeps on being priced at odds that don’t match his 2020/21 scoring form…

Today’s picks

From the analysis above, here are my picks for this evening…

Europa League

Rangers v Benfica
8pm – BT Sport

  • Anytime Scorer: James Tavernier @ 16/5 (4.2) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 3/1 (4.0) Betway, 13/5 (3.6) Ladbrokes, Coral, Skybet, BetVictor
  • Anytime Scorer: Luis Pizzi @ 16/5 (4.2) with Betway, 3/1 (4.0) Skybet, BetVictor, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral

I’ll be back on Friday with my weekend preview. As well as the domestic leagues, we also have the FA Cup 2nd Round to look forward to.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues