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'Deflected winner leads to dancing in an Edinburgh street...'

Thursday 3rd December 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Win & BTTS excitement…
  • Europa League tonight…
  • Rangers v Standard Liege…

Deflected winner leads to dancing in an Edinburgh street…’

We were just one Bristol Rovers goal away from a 150/1 Win & Both Teams to Score treble last night…

But I’m not complaining. Wednesday’s three featured English Football League (EFL) games all delivered on the straight-up win, with that combo paying 13/1:

Blackburn 2 Millwall 1
Hull 2 Doncaster 1
Bristol Rovers 0 Gillingham 2

Exciting times…

In the last two weeks I’ve put up three Win & Both Teams to Score (Win & BTTS) trebles in the EFL. Landing 2 out of 3 each time.

If we can keep up that kind of ballpark figure, then the chance of clicking with a big one is promising…

It’s great to hear that so many of you have been using those Win & BTTS pointers to profit from Doubles and Trixies.

The excitement and fun of going after a massive win from small stakes is what it’s all about.

After last night’s entertainment and late goals, the Across the Leagues inbox has been busy…

Denis B was feeling the excitement:

“Wow nearly had heart attack with that treble hitting the bar again very exciting so close to big payday … so close again with the big bet it will happen one day keep it going”

Eric J also reckons we’re closing in on a full house:

“Fantastic stats again .... It can only be a matter of time before all three come in, but another £150 plus profit on the night on the Win and BTS Trixie and Win Trixie. Thanks again mate”

Jonathan thinks so, too:

“Please keep these big price trebles coming, so close again!! I'm sure you'll land one soon enough. Still turned a nice profit for the evening”

And the award for best comment of the week has to go to Paul:

“Deflected Blackburn winner leads to dancing in an Edinburgh street!! …I'm £300 up on the last two nights”

Blackburn did indeed score a late, deflected winner. And Millwall fans will argue their team could’ve had two or three penalties for handball, too. See for yourself in the highlights here.

The heart of the season…

We won’t be dancing in the street every week. If you’ve followed me for a while, then you’ll already know that. But the good nights are there to be enjoyed when they come along…

I’ll keep on using the stats, and researching the Win & BTTS markets for us.

We’re heading into the busiest and best part of the season now. This autumn/ winter middle-zone is packed with games every week, and that means a bulging and up-to-date formbook.

The EFL continues this weekend, then again with Tuesday & Wednesday fixtures next week. Loads to look forward to.

Europa League tonight…

Ciro Immobile was a successful value pick in the Anytime Scorer market last night. The Lazio striker scored a penalty in his side’s 1-1 draw at Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League.

  • Immobile has now scored in 7 games in a row in all comps, and in 8 out of 10 appearances for Lazio this season
  • Backing Immobile at yesterday’s top price of 13/8 (2.63) to level stakes in every club game this season is showing a 110% ROI

Running the rule over this evening’s Europa League match-day 5 schedule, there’s one man that stands out head and shoulders for me. And no prizes for guessing who…

Rangers v Standard Liege

James Tavernier might have ‘right-back’ written by his name, but this man loves to get forward, knows where the goal is, and takes set pieces and penalties, too.

  • Tavernier has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 12 out of 23 apps for Rangers this season (52%)
  • 8 of his 14 goals have come from the penalty spot, including in the 2-0 win at Standard Liege last month

As with yesterday’s scorer analysis, price is key:

If we apply odds of 5/2 (3.5) for Tavernier to score tonight (suggesting a true odds percentage chance in the region of 29%). Against his season-to-date Anytime Scorer strike-rate of 52%. Then the difference in those two numbers is clear to see.

Another way to look at it, is to say that if you’d backed Tavernier in every game that he’s played in 2020/21 at odds of 5/2, then to level stakes, your ROI would be 82.6%.

That’s my case for the Rangers man as a value selection to score tonight.

Today’s picks

From the analysis above, here is my pick for this evening…

Rangers v Standard Liege

Europa League, 8pm – BT Sport

  • Anytime Scorer: James Tavernier @ 5/2 (3.5) with Betway, Skybet, BetVictor, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral

I’ll be back tomorrow with a weekend preview for you.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues