Friday 14th May 2021
In Across the Leagues today:
5.9 v 5.9. That was the home v away match-up on our Corners averages for Man Utd v Liverpool. Of course, it’s not an exact science. But the game didn’t pan out too far off those numbers at all. The tally settling at 6-4…
My speculative 7/1 pick for the Most Corners ‘Draw’ was in the right ball park. At odds of 7/1, I can deal with a near miss. The rewards are there.
Elsewhere in yesterday’s analysis, the two much shorter, odds-on bets that I mentioned would both have sailed home. At 4/6 (1.67), Aston Villa smashed the Most Corners v Everton, 9-1. And at 10/11 (1.91), Erling Braut Haaland banged in two goals for Borussia Dortmund. Perhaps you were on those. Well done to you if you were.
My quest is always to come down on the side of value. Strong stats are one thing; worthwhile odds are another…
Sticking with the Corners theme, here are a few examples from my research for this weekend’s fixtures:
In Spain, Real Sociedad are the No.1 team in the La Liga stats on our website for Most Corners bets, with a 72% overall strike-rate for that bet.
On Wednesday, we got a top price of 9/5 (2.8) for Sociedad to win the Most Corners at Atletico Madrid (corners score: 1-7).
In comparison, this weekend, playing at home v Valladolid, Sociedad are short odds-on for this same bet – at just 1/3 (1.3) at best. Those prices with BetVictor and Boylesports.
In Italy, Atalanta are our top-rated team in Serie A for Most Corners payouts, with a standout 72% record in away games. They travel to Genoa this weekend, with the hosts sitting a lowly 18th of 20 teams in our Italian top-flight table for this bet.
The problem is, Atalanta are priced at just 2/9 (1.22) for the Most Corners in this game. That’s with Skybet. Other firms are even shorter for the away side, with Paddy Power making Atalanta just 1/6 (1.16) to win the Corners Match Bet.
Those kinds of prices are just too prohibitive for me. They make a bet ‘must win’ – and that’s a situation you never want to be in.
Here are two Most Corners prices that I do like this weekend:
German Bundesliga – Sat 2.30pm, BT Sport
Hertha Berlin are ranked a very respective joint-4th in our overall Bundesliga stats for Most Corners. And at home, they are joint-2nd, with a substantial 75% strike-rate.
Alongside that 75% home record for the season, Hertha Berlin have won the Most Corners in four of their last six games overall.
The match ‘situation’ is one thing that might be argued in the visitors’ favour here. Köln are in the relegation zone, with just two games left to play. They need a win. Hertha only need one point to effectively secure their own safety.
But even with that backdrop considered, odds of Evens and better (2.0+) for the home team to win the Most Corners look a decent proposition to me.
Scottish Premiership – Sat 12.30pm
We highlighted Hibernian’s corner-winning form earlier in the season. Hibs provided us with a 4/1 Most Corners winner in the reverse fixture at Celtic Park in January (corners score = 3-10).
Celtic have won the Most Corners in 10 games in a row in all comps. The Hoops are 4/5 (1.8) at best to make it 11. But this is the final game of the season, and with the league table done & dusted as far as these clubs are concerned – Celtic will finish 2nd, Hibernian 3rd – I wouldn’t want to be taking odds-on for anything here.
The home team are the value, with Hibs a standout 5/2 (3.5) with Skybet to be the team with the Most Corners.
Moving onto Wembley now…
Sat 5.15pm – BBC & BT Sport
Match odds: Chelsea 10/11 (1.91), Draw 13/5 (3.6), Leicester 16/5 (4.2)
To Lift the Trophy: Chelsea 1/2 (1.5), Leicester 9/5 (2.8)
MAN OF THE MATCH
Chelsea have reached the FA Cup final for the fourth time in five years…
Looking back at my research for last season’s final, I flagged up two of Chelsea’s creative players for William Hill’s BBC Man of the Match market. With Mason Mount at 9/1, and Christian Pulisic as the 9/2 (5.5) favourite. Pulisic scored the opening goal (also at odds of 9/2). But it was Arsenal’s two-goal hero Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang that took home the Man of the Match award, with Hills paying out at 11/2 (6.5).
Looking at the markets for Saturday’s big game, Bet365 are the only firm up right now for Man of the Match. They have Mount as the 4/1 market leader, with Pulisic at 10/1.
The match is being shown live on the BBC (as well as on BT Sport). We can take Bet365’s Rules to state that the BBC (eg. terrestrial) announcement will be the one that they pay out on:
GOALS AND CORRECT SCORES
Continuing to plunder the homework I did ahead of last season’s final – which ended 2-1 to Arsenal – this updated stat could prove a useful one:
Correct Score bettors should also take note of these low-goals trends for Chelsea and Leicester…
Chelsea in Cup competitions since Thomas Tuchel took over:
Champions League:
Atletico Madrid 0 Chelsea 1
Chelsea 2 Atletico Madrid 0
Porto 0 Chelsea 2
Chelsea 0 Porto 1
Real Madrid 1 Chelsea 1
Chelsea 2 Real Madrid 0
FA Cup:
Barnsley 0 Chelsea 1
Chelsea 2 Sheff Utd 0
Chelsea 1 Man City 0
Also, since Tuchel took charge:
Overall, since the German was appointed manager on 26th January:
And if we bring Leicester into the fold…
The bookies make Under 2.5 Goals an 8/11 (1.73) favourite this weekend. In the Correct Score market, Chelsea 1-0 is the 11/2 (6.5) fav, with 2-0 at a top-price 8/1 (9.0) with BetVictor.
We’ve mentioned Mount and Pulisic as the potential magic men for Chelsea. For Leicester, this guy is the scorer in form:
Iheanacho is 13/5 (3.6) to score Anytime (Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook), and a best price 13/2 (7.5) to score First (Bet365).
PLAYER CARDS
We’ve had some success playing the Player Cards stats recently. Here’s my angle for two players in the cup final…
Both men are recent injury doubts. Kante (Achilles) and Evans (heel) have both missed games in the past week, but the word coming from the camps as I write is that both men are more likely to play than not…
Kante is reported this afternoon to be in the Chelsea starting XI. And with regards to Evans, Leicester boss Brendan Rodgers has told the press:
“Jonny is a warrior and if there is any way he can play – even if he is not 100% – he will be out there. It’s going to be a physical game so we need good physicality and running ability, if that’s hindered in any way it may make it difficult for him.”
These two players already have good card credentials. With the big-match atmosphere at Wembley tomorrow, and the potential for both to be being slightly off the pace, then mistimed tackles could well be a consideration…
Selected odds – Kante and Evans:
3/1+ each To be Carded (Skybet, William Hill, Betway)
1st Carded Player – Kante 12/1, Evans 15/1 (BetVictor)
66/1 each To be Sent Off (Sky, W.Hill)
I like the 1st Carded Player angle here, spitting a stake between 12/1 Kante and 15/1 Evans.
TODAY’S PICKS
From the analysis above, here are my picks for the weekend…
Hertha Berlin v FC Köln
Hibernian v Celtic
Chelsea v Leicester
I’ll be back on Monday, when I’ll be lining up a couple of big-odds selections for the Football League Playoffs.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone