Friday 1st March 2019

In Football Angles today:

• New Manager Syndrome…
• High-flying, high-scoring Canaries…
• 11/2 for another big score-line…

High-flying Canaries at 11/2…

Things move fast in football. This time last week, Brendan Rodgers was Celtic manager and had just flown back from a 1-0 Europa League defeat in Valencia.

There was just enough time to beat Motherwell 4-1, before Brendan took the trip back down south to take the hot-seat at Leicester City…

Claudio Ranieri won the Premier League title at Leicester – and was sacked the very next season. Now he’s lost his job at Fulham, too.

Little Scotty Parker has been put in charge at Craven Cottage. This gives us good reason to revisit his World Cup ’94 McDonald’s ad. I’m getting old.

As for the betting…

Will ‘New Manager Syndrome’ be in full effect? It often seems a change of manager results in a short-term lift in form.

Scott Parker’s first game is v Chelsea. His Fulham side are 11/2 (6.50) underdogs.

Rodgers will give his first Leicester team-talk away to Watford. The Leicester players are 2/1 (3.00) to begin the Brendan Era with 3 points and in doing so, earn themselves a kiss each on the head.

In my weekend research I’ve been looking at two high-flying teams who are both on the road this Saturday afternoon…

Man City go to Bournemouth. The Cherries have entertained three of the current Top 5 at the Vitality Stadium so far, and lost all three: 1-2 v Man Utd, 1-2 v Arsenal and most recently 0-4 v Liverpool.

On their away visits to the big boys, Bournemouth were flogged 5-1 at Arsenal and 3-0 at Liverpool in February. Before that, in December the Cherries were humbled 4-1 at Man Utd, 5-0 to Tottenham and 3-1 at Man City.

City have won 8 of their last 9 Premier League games and are just 2/9 (1.22) to win again.

In the case of the reigning champs, going after the big score-lines doesn’t help us get an attractive price, either: Over 3.5 Goals is Evens (2.00), and City -2 Handicap (to win by 3+ goals) is just 6/4 (2.50).

Dropping down a tier to the Championship, the league leaders are available at a much more intriguing price…

Millwall v Norwich City

Norwich have won four of their last five games, and lost just two of their last 22. An eye-catching theme of the Canaries’ climb up the table has been a series of rollercoaster, high-scoring victories…

The score-lines in those four most recent wins were: 3-2, 0-4, 3-0, 1-3. You can also throw in 3-1 and 3-4 defeats, a 3-3 draw… and 0-4, 4-3 and 1-4 wins during the campaign.

That 4-3 win was against Millwall back in November…

Millwall sit 20th of 24 teams in the Championship, with just one win from their last eight games. Their last home game ended in a 1-3 loss v Preston. Earlier in the season, Sheffield United – who are currently 2nd behind Norwich – came out on top in a ding-dong encounter at The Den, prevailing 3-2.

Norwich are 6/5 (2.20) to win at Millwall this weekend. But with the Canaries seemingly never far from a high-goals thriller these days, odds of 11/2 (6.50) for Norwich to Win & Over 3.5 Goals in the game is the bet that stands out at a healthy price.

That option has paid out in a quite frankly startling nine of Norwich’s last 11 wins, including four of their five most recent victories.

Today’s bet:

Millwall v Norwich City
Championship, Saturday 3pm

• Norwich to Win & Over 3.5 Goals @ 11/2 (6.50) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, Boylesports

I’ll be back next week with more from Football Angles HQ. We’ve got the Champions and League Europa League coming up, and lots more besides.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Football Angles