Tuesday 23rd March 2021
In Across the Leagues today:
We spent some time in last week’s analysis focusing on the Player Card stats. It’s been great to hear from members that bagged a winner of two in these markets.
Well done to Bob and Salman, who both played their cards right in the Leicester-Man Utd match at the weekend. And Salman picked out a 15/1 ‘bet builder’ in the Chelsea-Atletico Madrid game, too…
“Was on Maguire and Evans to be carded and first card, nice win” – Bob
“I’ve had a good few days with your cards info. Backed both Maguire and Evans to be booked and also both players first to be carded. Prior to that I took advantage of Paddy Power's free build a bet offer last week and placed a bet on the Chelsea - Atletico Madrid game which was ‘under 2.5 goals, Savic to be booked and a red card to be shown’ which was 15/1 so was quids in on that aswell!” – Salman
The World Cup 2022 Qualifiers start tomorrow, with three rounds of group fixtures taking place over the next seven days. I’ve already got a few notes for England v San Marino, and I’ll share those with you ahead of Thursday’s game.
On the domestic front, there are a total of 11 matches across League One & League Two this evening…
My theme today is the Corners stats. Taking my lead from the standout numbers in the League Stats, Team Stats, Totals, and Head-2-Heads pages on our website:
I grew up watching these two clubs. They both play in different stadiums these days…
My uncle used to take me to the Cobblers as a kid. Standing in the terraces at the old County Ground is one of my earliest football memories. The ground only had three sides, owing to the cricket pitch. And if my memory serves me correctly, we used to use the cricket clubhouse clock to see how long it was ‘til half time. Anyway…
Into 2021 and the Sixfields Stadium, AKA the PTS Academy Stadium, and Northampton are posting some low corners figures in their home games:
It’s good to note, too, that that low corners form has continued since Keith Curle was sacked. With the Total Corners tallies in the five home games since his departure coming out at (most recent first): 5, 8, 9, 5, 5.
The home v away Head-2-Head for tonight’s game v Oxford shows that the away team bring some significant corners form, too:
The two areas I’ve highlighted in red there are Under 10.5 Corners, which is a 78% v 89% home v away match-up on the season-long stats, and 100% on recent Last 5 Games form.
And the Most Corners, which identifies Oxford as the team most likely to win the most flag-kicks in tonight’s game…
Oxford are the favourites for the Most Corners or ‘Corners Match Bet’ tonight, 17/20 (1.85) with Betway, 5/6 (1.83) and 4/5 (1.8) in general.
Northampton have picked up a little in that department recently though, with five out of 10 Most Corners wins since Curle left (two out of five at home).
The Total Corners stats provide the strongest all-round match-up here. Under 11 Corners is 4/6 (1.67) with Skybet, 8/13 (1.62) with Bet365.
There’s also the potential for a low score-line here…
Under 2.5 Goals is an odds-on favourite, 8/13 (1.62) and 4/7 (1.57) in general.
For a bigger price…
The 0-0 Correct Score is a best price of 7/1 (8.0) with Skybet and BetVictor, and 13/2 (7.5) and 6/1 (7.0) in general.
No Goalscorer is similar prices, and that option covers Own Goals, too. For example, if Oxford won 1-0 via an Own Goal, ‘No Goalscorer’ would pay out, as OG’s don’t count in the Scorer markets.
The Head-2-Head tool on our site also highlights three League Two match-ups with decent Under 10.5 Corners percentages today:
Those Under 10.5 Corners or Under 11 Corners options are priced at between 4/9 (1.44) and 13/20 (1.65) each. With BetVictor, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports, and Unibet all offering markets.
You might want to play those as singles or in combinations.
I’m adding in the Northampton-Oxford game and going for the four-fold full house, which pays over 9/2 (5.5+).
Mansfield v Forest Green kicks off at 6pm, with the other three at 7pm.
From the analysis above, here are my picks for today…
I’ll be back throughout the week with more stats and analysis for you. Including a proper look at the markets and prices for England v San Marino on Thursday.
Enjoy the football…