Friday 19th March 2021
In Across the Leagues today:
Welcome to your Across the Leagues Weekend Preview…
I’ve got stacks of stuff to tell you about. My research and notes take in the FA Cup, League Two, Scottish Premiership, and Austrian Bundesliga.
There are some massive prices in today’s analysis. And remember, if you fancy going through the stats to source your own opportunities, I more than encourage you to do so…
We’ve got 17 leagues covered across a variety of markets. Log-in at:
Southampton go to Bournemouth, and Sheff Utd are at Chelsea.
Here’s the full schedule:
I’m following a line of enquiry in the disciplinary markets this week…
On Wednesday, Atletico Madrid’s most-carded player this season, Stefan Savic, was sent off in the Champions League.
On Thursday, AC Milan’s most-carded man, Theo Hernandez, was booked in the Europa League.
With the FA Cup quarter finals taking place this weekend, let’s see if we can pinpoint a card contender at a nice price…
The Premier League Team Stats on our website tell us Jonny Evans is the most-carded player for Leicester this season, with seven yellow cards. Harry Maguire has that title for Man Utd, with eight yellows.
There’s also the ex-club factor with those two. There’s been one recent occasion where that fitted in with the headline writers. Last summer, in United’s 2-0 win at the King Power Stadium, Evans was sent off for two yellows against his former club. And likewise, Maguire was booked against his old team.
To counter that, it’s worth noting the low cards totals recorded in this season’s behind-closed-doors FA Cup…
If that pattern continues in this weekend’s empty-stadium quarter finals, it could be worth following the potential card candidates in the First Player to be Carded markets. The thinking being, it might end up being the only card of the game – and the first-card price is always bigger than the ‘anytime’ one…
Evans and Maguire are priced at around 3/1 each To be Carded/ Booked. In the first-card betting, they’re available at top prices of 16/1 and 15/1 respectively.
Our 66/1 outsiders Sheff Utd have got their work cut out here. Away to Chelsea, who are 7/2 (4.5) second favourites for the cup, and unbeaten in 13 games in all competitions since Thomas Tuchel took over…
If their own new-manager bounce kicks in though, perhaps Paul Heckingbottom can inspire some cup redemption from this relegation-doomed Blades side.
Much has been made of Tuchel’s unbeaten record since arriving at Stamford Bridge. The low-goals form has been noteworthy, too, with 12 of his first 13 games in charge going Under 2.5 Goals. Chelsea have also won the Most Corners in five out of six home games since the German was appointed.
The cards form has also been eye-catchingly low since the change in the dugout…
As I write, it’s hard to find a find a bookmaker offering a Most Cards market for Sunday’s game. William Hill are up though, with Sheff Utd odds-on at 17/20 (1.85) for the Most Booking Points.
With Chelsea looking well-behaved, my angle here is to find a Sheff Utd player to get a card…
Here are Sheff Utd’s league stats from our site:
John Lundstram is a man that stands out for the Blades. In fact, no player in the Premier League has got more cards than the 27-year-old midfielder this season.
Lundstram’s most recent booking came in the 5-0 mauling at Leicester last weekend. Six of his eight cards have come in away games. And as the stats above show, he’s also Sheff Utd’s top player in the first-card department.
He stands out at odds of 9/2 (5.5) To be Carded, and 12/1 (13.0) to be the First Carded Player. I’m splitting a stake across those options.
The Scottish Premiership stats on our site identify Livingston v Hibernian as a contender for Under 10.5 Corners.
Livingston are the No.1 team in the division for that bet. And as our home v away Head-2-Head for this game illustrates, Hibernian have delivered in four of their last five on the road, too:
You’ll find Total Corners markets for that game with firms including Skybet, Bet365, Boylesports, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook. Under 11 Corners is 4/6 (1.67) with Sky.
It’s round 22 in the Austrian Bundesliga this weekend. After this point, the 12-team division splits into two mini-leagues for the remainder of the season.
Leaders and champions RB Salzburg are at home v 3rd place LASK Linz (Sat 4pm), and this fixture has history for producing some goals-galore score-lines…
Our Austrian Bundesliga stats show Salzburg have a 100% home record for Over 2.5 Goals this season. And just look at the score-lines: 4-1, 7-1, 5-0, 1-3, 3-1, 2-3, 3-0, 3-1, 4-2, 4-1, 3-1.
The 3-1 score pops up three times in that home results list, too. That option is 13/1 with BetVictor and 12/1 in general.
The numbers say you could do worse than play a few other big Correct Scores in this game, too. Salzburg 4-1 is 30/1, and 4-2 is 45/1 (BetVictor).
Win & Both Teams to Score has been a popular market for us this season, and this weekend I like the prices for the three top-rated Win & BTTS teams in League Two…
Bradford v Oldham – Oldham @ 6/1 (7.0)
Cambridge v Forest Green – Cambridge @ 9/2 (5.5)
Harrogate v Morecambe – Morecambe @ 11/2 (6.5)
As ever, these prices can be mixed & matched however you fancy. At these odds, a winning double would be worth 34/1+. And the full-house treble is a massive 249/1. With that in mind, I’m splitting a stake four ways in a Trixie (three doubles & a treble).
From the analysis above, here are my weekend picks…
Chelsea v Sheff Utd:
League Two (three games listed above):
I’ll be back next week with more stats, analysis & betting angles for you.
Enjoy the football…