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In pursuit of glory at 249/1...

Friday 19th March 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

  • FA Cup cards & bookings stats…
  • Correct Score potential in Salzburg…
  • Win & Both Teams to Score opportunities…

In pursuit of glory at 249/1…

Welcome to your Across the Leagues Weekend Preview…

I’ve got stacks of stuff to tell you about. My research and notes take in the FA Cup, League Two, Scottish Premiership, and Austrian Bundesliga.

There are some massive prices in today’s analysis. And remember, if you fancy going through the stats to source your own opportunities, I more than encourage you to do so…

We’ve got 17 leagues covered across a variety of markets. Log-in at:

www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk.

Cards & Bookings angles for the FA Cup…

We’re cheering on two teams in the FA Cup quarter finals this weekend. With 28/1 Southampton and 66/1 Sheffield United in the book as outsider selections in the Outright Winner betting.

Southampton go to Bournemouth, and Sheff Utd are at Chelsea.

Here’s the full schedule:

  • Bournemouth v Southampton – Sat 12.15pm, BT Sport
  • Everton v Man City – Sat 5.30pm, BT Sport
  • Chelsea v Sheff Utd – Sun 1.30pm, BBC One 
  • Leicester v Man Utd – Sun 5pm, BBC One

I’m following a line of enquiry in the disciplinary markets this week…

On Wednesday, Atletico Madrid’s most-carded player this season, Stefan Savic, was sent off in the Champions League.

On Thursday, AC Milan’s most-carded man, Theo Hernandez, was booked in the Europa League.

With the FA Cup quarter finals taking place this weekend, let’s see if we can pinpoint a card contender at a nice price…

Leicester v Man Utd

The Premier League Team Stats on our website tell us Jonny Evans is the most-carded player for Leicester this season, with seven yellow cards. Harry Maguire has that title for Man Utd, with eight yellows.

There’s also the ex-club factor with those two. There’s been one recent occasion where that fitted in with the headline writers. Last summer, in United’s 2-0 win at the King Power Stadium, Evans was sent off for two yellows against his former club. And likewise, Maguire was booked against his old team.

To counter that, it’s worth noting the low cards totals recorded in this season’s behind-closed-doors FA Cup

  • In the 4th round, 10 of the 16 matches went Under 3.5 Cards. With 8 of them producing no cards or one card
  • In the 5th round, 6 of the 8 ties went Under 3.5 Cards. With 3 seeing zero cards or one card

If that pattern continues in this weekend’s empty-stadium quarter finals, it could be worth following the potential card candidates in the First Player to be Carded markets. The thinking being, it might end up being the only card of the game – and the first-card price is always bigger than the ‘anytime’ one…

Evans and Maguire are priced at around 3/1 each To be Carded/ Booked. In the first-card betting, they’re available at top prices of 16/1 and 15/1 respectively.

Chelsea v Sheffield United

Our 66/1 outsiders Sheff Utd have got their work cut out here. Away to Chelsea, who are 7/2 (4.5) second favourites for the cup, and unbeaten in 13 games in all competitions since Thomas Tuchel took over…

If their own new-manager bounce kicks in though, perhaps Paul Heckingbottom can inspire some cup redemption from this relegation-doomed Blades side.

Much has been made of Tuchel’s unbeaten record since arriving at Stamford Bridge. The low-goals form has been noteworthy, too, with 12 of his first 13 games in charge going Under 2.5 Goals. Chelsea have also won the Most Corners in five out of six home games since the German was appointed.

The cards form has also been eye-catchingly low since the change in the dugout…

  • Under 3.5 Cards has paid out in 10 of Chelsea’s last 13 games
  • Chelsea have received the Most Cards in just one of Tuchel’s 13 games. And 7 of those have seen no Chelsea players go in the book at all (Zero Cards For)

As I write, it’s hard to find a find a bookmaker offering a Most Cards market for Sunday’s game. William Hill are up though, with Sheff Utd odds-on at 17/20 (1.85) for the Most Booking Points.

With Chelsea looking well-behaved, my angle here is to find a Sheff Utd player to get a card…

Here are Sheff Utd’s league stats from our site:

Sheffield United Cards Stats...

John Lundstram is a man that stands out for the Blades. In fact, no player in the Premier League has got more cards than the 27-year-old midfielder this season.

Lundstram’s most recent booking came in the 5-0 mauling at Leicester last weekend. Six of his eight cards have come in away games. And as the stats above show, he’s also Sheff Utd’s top player in the first-card department.

He stands out at odds of 9/2 (5.5) To be Carded, and 12/1 (13.0) to be the First Carded Player. I’m splitting a stake across those options.

Low corners at Livingston…

The Scottish Premiership stats on our site identify Livingston v Hibernian as a contender for Under 10.5 Corners.

Livingston are the No.1 team in the division for that bet. And as our home v away Head-2-Head for this game illustrates, Hibernian have delivered in four of their last five on the road, too:

Head-2-Head Livingston v Hibernian

You’ll find Total Corners markets for that game with firms including Skybet, Bet365, Boylesports, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook. Under 11 Corners is 4/6 (1.67) with Sky.

Correct Score potential in Salzburg…

It’s round 22 in the Austrian Bundesliga this weekend. After this point, the 12-team division splits into two mini-leagues for the remainder of the season.

Leaders and champions RB Salzburg are at home v 3rd place LASK Linz (Sat 4pm), and this fixture has history for producing some goals-galore score-lines…

  • 8 of the last 10 meetings have gone Over 2.5 Goals. Including 3 x 3-1 victories for Salzburg

Our Austrian Bundesliga stats show Salzburg have a 100% home record for Over 2.5 Goals this season. And just look at the score-lines: 4-1, 7-1, 5-0, 1-3, 3-1, 2-3, 3-0, 3-1, 4-2, 4-1, 3-1.

The 3-1 score pops up three times in that home results list, too. That option is 13/1 with BetVictor and 12/1 in general.

The numbers say you could do worse than play a few other big Correct Scores in this game, too. Salzburg 4-1 is 30/1, and 4-2 is 45/1 (BetVictor).

Win & Both Teams to Score contenders…

Win & Both Teams to Score has been a popular market for us this season, and this weekend I like the prices for the three top-rated Win & BTTS teams in League Two…

Bradford v Oldham – Oldham @ 6/1 (7.0)

Cambridge v Forest Green – Cambridge @ 9/2 (5.5)

Harrogate v Morecambe – Morecambe @ 11/2 (6.5)

League Two - Win & Both Teams to Score

  • 7 of Oldham’s 10 payouts have come on the road. Their last 2 games have ended 1-1 and 4-2
  • 7 of Cambridge’s 10 Win & BTTS results have come at home. Their last 2 matches have ended 2-4 and 2-1
  • 9 of Morecambe’s last 10 games have seen goals at both ends. With 2 x 2-1 and 2 x 3-1 victories during that run

As ever, these prices can be mixed & matched however you fancy. At these odds, a winning double would be worth 34/1+. And the full-house treble is a massive 249/1. With that in mind, I’m splitting a stake four ways in a Trixie (three doubles & a treble).

TODAY’S PICKS

From the analysis above, here are my weekend picks…

Chelsea v Sheff Utd:

  • John Lundstram – To be Carded @ 9/2. First Player to be Carded @ 12/1 - William Hill, Skybet

League Two (three games listed above):

  • TRIXIE. Win & Both Teams to Score – Oldham, Cambridge & Morecambe – best prices Bet365, William Hill

I’ll be back next week with more stats, analysis & betting angles for you.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues