Thursday 1st October 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
There’s football on every evening this week. And plenty of it is live on TV. That includes the EFL Cup, Europa League qualifiers, and Spanish league action this evening.
Just because there’s loads of football on, it doesn’t mean we need to be betting every day. It does so happen that a couple of prices are catching the eye this week, though…
There was plenty of use in yesterday’s Burnley v Man City analysis. We highlighted a quartet of standout Correct Score prices at Skybet, for example. Man City to win 3-0 was in there, at 9/1.
Likewise, City on the -1 or -2 Match Handicap. Their 3-0 victory was enough to cover both those options.
My personal pick ended up void with stakes returned, so no harm done there. Phil Foden didn’t get off the bench. He’ll remain one to look out for in City games, when the price is right in the Anytime Scorer market.
We noted yesterday that Man City usually roar back into form after defeat. Having lost 5-2 at home v Leicester at the weekend, that 3-0 cup win at Burnley might set Pep Guardiola’s men up for a few more big margins of victory.
Elsewhere in the midweek games, we didn’t land the 25/1 Half Time/ Full Time turnaround with Atalanta this time. They won 4-1 at Lazio in Serie A on Wednesday, leading 3-0 at the break.
Atalanta’s high-scoring form has picked right off where they left it last season. Which means we can expect plenty more rollercoaster games from them in 2020/21 – paving the way for some fancy Correct Score and HT/ FT options in the matchday markets.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic has landed First Goalscorer bets in each of his last four appearances for AC Milan.
The Italian club are in action again this evening, away to Portuguese outfit Rio Ave in the latest round of Europa League Qualifying.
Zlatan won’t be there, though. The self-styled Swedish icon tested positive for coronavirus a week ago. He took to Twitter, in customary brazen fashion:
If that bullish attitude is anything to go by, then Ibrahimovic will be back on the pitch as soon as he’s allowed to.
When that happens, look out for him in the scorer markets. He may be 38 years old, but as I’m sure he’d tell you himself, even the passing of time can’t stop Zlatan.
Barcelona started their new La Liga campaign with a 4-0 home win v Villarreal on Sunday. Things might be a bit trickier at Celta Vigo this evening…
Recent trips to Vigo have seen the home team hold their own, with the following score-lines: 2-2, 2-0, 2-2, 1-1, 4-3, 4-1.
That means Barca travel to Estadio de Balaidos this evening, looking for a first win there since a 1-0 result back in April 2015.
The bookmakers have the underdog Home Win as a 7/1 shot, with the draw at 4/1 (Skybet).
Iago Aspas at 8/1…
Vigo striker Iago Aspas stands out for me, at 8/1 Each Way to score First (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook).
Aspas has scored all three of his team’s goals so far in the new season…
Vigo have played three La Liga games, with a 0-0, followed by a 2-1 win v Valencia, then a 1-1 draw at Valladolid. Aspas landed First Goalscorer odds in those two most recent games.
The 33-year-old Spanish forward normally trades at around 4/1 and 5/1, depending on the opponent. The visit of Barcelona nudges the odds up somewhat…
Barca, for their part, have Lionel Messi (of course) at the head of the betting. The great man is 14/5 (3.8) at best to opening the scoring. And odds-on to score Anytime, a top price 4/5 (1.8). Messi scored a penalty on Sunday.
Barcelona also have a new rising star in 17-year-old Ansu Fati. The Spanish teenager scored a brace in that 4-0 win over Villarreal, including the first goal. Fati is 9/2 (5.5) to strike early again tonight, and 17/10 (2.7) Anytime.
I’m drawn to the larger prices for the home team prospect here. Aspas has plenty in his favour:
Last season, Vigo’s top scorer was also one of the most prolific men in the Spanish top-flight overall. The La Liga 2019/20 League Stats on our website show that only five players landed more Anytime Scorer bets that Aspas:
This season, Aspas has put himself in an early 1st place for First Goalscorer payout, with two from three games.
And this away-day nugget suggests Barca are a little vulnerable to conceding first on the road:
Aspas takes penalties, too, which is also a good factor to have on side.
In the Anytime Scorer market today, Iago is priced between 7/4 (2.75) and 5/2 (3.50). The standout price for me is the 8/1 (9.0) for First Goalscorer, with Each Way places available for scoring later in the game.
Celta Vigo v Barcelona
Spain, La Liga
TONIGHT 8.30pm – La Liga TV
Each Way terms: 1/3 odds 1-5 goals with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 1/3 odds Unlimited goals with Bet365.
I’ll be back tomorrow as we look ahead to the weekend games.
Enjoy the football…