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Tangerine dreams at 33/1...

Tuesday 8th September 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • New season picks…
  • League One 2020/21…
  • Blackpool and Jerry Yates…

Tangerine dreams at 33/1…

Last week we looked at the last-10-seasons data for the Premier League and Championship.

Noting that the League Winner & Top Goalscorer combination has only occurred in two of the last 10 years in those respective divisions.

In League One, it’s a slightly different story, in that three of the last five seasons have seen the championship winning side also produce the top scoring player.

That might be an anomaly, as the previous five seasons didn’t tick that box.

But the figures are of interest to me, as we look to snag a couple of decent Each Way prices for the new 2020/21 campaign, which kicks off this weekend.

Here’s the last decade in those two markets in League One: Outright Winner (champions), and Top Goalscorer:

League One Top Scorers

Seasiders at 20/1…

The League One 2020/21 Outright Winner market has the familiar names at the top of the betting:

Sunderland 7/1
Portsmouth 9/1
Peterborough 9/1

Followed by a trio of of 12/1 shots: Ipswich, Oxford Utd (last season’s beaten playoff finalists), and Charlton. With Hull at 14/1, and Fleetwood Town at 16/1.

Looking beyond those, Blackpool at 20/1 have the look of a club that could be on the rise this coming season…

Arriving from the Liverpool boot-room, Neil Critchley was appointed manager at Bloomfield Road in March, just before lockdown hit and ultimately wiped out the rest of the 2019/20 season in League One.

While it would be lazy and a bit far-fetched to simply suggest that Critchley will get the Seasiders playing the same brand of high-press, energetic, front-footed football as Jurgen Klopp’s league winners. The early signs are nevertheless that Critchley is putting together a team capable of both entertaining the fans, and winning matches.

As a rule, we shouldn’t read too much into pre-season results. But with a new man at the helm, and 11 news signings in a tangerine kit this summer (with more apparently in the pipeline), the recent form does count for something. Blackpool had a 2-1 half time lead against Liverpool (eventually losing 7-2), and drew 3-3 with another Premier League opponent, Everton.

Overall, the Tangerines won three of their six pre-season Friendlies.

That’s not bad going. Neither is a 0-0 draw (lost on penalties) against Stoke City in the EFL Cup. Stoke are in with the 4/1 favourites to win promotion from the Championship to the Premier League this season.

The 2020/21 outright markets in League One have Blackpool at 7/2 (4.5) at best to make the Playoffs, and 6/1 (7.0) for Promotion.

With 1/4 odds Each Way available for a Top 3 finish, 20/1 in the League Winner market appeals. With a new manager and a stack of new signings, there’s an element of potential in this Blackpool side that’s hard to factor into the odds.

Jerry Yates at 33/1…

One of those new signings for Blackpool is Jerry Yates. The 23-year-old Englishman featured in my League Two notes a few times last season, part of Swindon Town’s title-winning top-scorer combo. Yates finished joint-3rd in the Top Goalscorer chart with 13 goals in League Two, with strike partner Eoin Doyle running away with it with 25.

The interesting thing about that Swindon pair is that they were both on loan at the time. Doyle has since moved to Bolton Wanderers, who are 5/1 favourites to win League Two. Doyle has been installed as a 7/1 frontrunner for top scorer.

After loan spells at Harrogate, Carlisle, and then Swindon, this summer Yates finally made a permanent move away from his former parent club, Rotherham.

Arriving at Blackpool for an undisclosed fee, Yates has scored a couple of goals in pre-season, including a penalty against Liverpool.

Last season’s top scorer for Blackpool, Armand Gnanduillet (15 goals, 2nd top scorer in League One), has since moved to Turkish club Altay.

Yates could turn out to be the main man in front of goal for Blackpool this season…

Bet365 were the first firm up with a price on Jerry last week. Their 40/1 soon went, and he’s now 25/1. Other bookies are 33/1 across the board right now, and that’s an Each Way price to snap up before the first round of League One action this weekend.

  • As a side note, going back to the League Winner & Top Goalscorer combo, Skybet have a market for that. They make Blackpool & Yates a 200/1 shot. It’s a related contingency, so can’t be placed as a true double, but if it could, those odds would be over 700/1 (20/1 x 33/1)

Today’s picks

League One 2020/21

Outright Winner:

  • Blackpool @ 20/1 Each Way with Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, 18/1 NetBet, 10Bet, 16/1 Betway, Ladbrokes, Coral

Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-3 places.

Top Goalscorer:

  • Jerry Yates @ 33/1 Each Way with Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral

Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-4 places.

I’ll be back throughout the week, as we continue to build up to the kick-off in England and Spain this weekend. We’ll be taking a trip to the League Two 2020/21 ante post markets, too.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues