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Analysis for tonight - including 4/1 Scorers...

Wednesday 13th January 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Blades up and running…
  • Livingston v Aberdeen, 7.45pm…
  • Oldham v Mansfield, 7.45pm… 

Analysis for tonight - including 4/1 Scorers…

In took 18 games, but Sheffield United have finally recorded their first Premier League win of the season.

Last night’s 1-0 victory over Newcastle clicked in for the 1-0 Correct Score flagged up at 6/1 in Tuesday’s Premier League Predictions email.

  • 8 of Sheff Utd’s 18 leagues games have produced a 1-0 score-line this season

Next up for Chris Wilder’s side, an acid test to see if they really have turned the corner: their next three Premier League games are home to Tottenham, then a brace of away trips to Man Utd and then Man City.

In terms of the FA Cup, it could turn out that we got on the Blades at a good time yesterday. With odds of 66/1, 60/1 and 50/1 Each Way in the book. Sheff Utd play at home in the 4th round v Plymouth a week on Saturday (23rd Jan).

A good night for Mark…

Across the Leagues member Mark C had a successful time of it last night, playing the stats on our website to fine effect:

“Good Morning, Using the stats I placed a treble on last night’s games all to be drawing at half time. Nice little return, thanks a lot. Also took the under 10.5 corners in the Burnley v United game and both teams to score in the Wolves v Everton game, a good night. Thanks a lot!”

  • You can view all our League, Team, Form, and Head-2-Head home v away stats on the site, by logging-in at: www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk

Here’s my take on the stats and markets for this evening’s fixtures…

Livingston v Aberdeen, 7.45pm…

Livingston have an artificial pitch. You can’t call it ‘all-weather’ though, as this fixture was originally postponed in December, due to a frozen playing surface at the Tony Macaroni Arena…

The two clubs reconvene tonight, with the home team in superb form…

  • Livingston have won 6 games in a row in the Scottish Premiership, and 8 out of 8 in all competitions since David Martindale took charge on 20th November
  • Aberdeen have won 3 of their last 6, and sit 3rd in the table, 9 points above tonight’s hosts

Livingston haven’t beaten the Dons in 13 attempts, with their last victory in this fixture coming back in 2004. The current 2020/21 form says the home side have their best chance for a long time...

The bookies have the home win as the narrow favourite in the Match Result market, with Livingston a top price 17/10 (2.7) with Betfred and BetVictor.

The Total Corners stats are also worthy of note here, with Martindale’s side boasting a streak that predates his promotion to caretaker manager…

  • Livingston on an 11-game run for Under 10.5 Corners payouts

The stats on our website show that Livingston are No.1 in Scottish Premiership for that bet this season, with 18 out of 21 games (86%), including 8 out of 10 at home, paying out on Under 10.5 Corners:

Scottish Premiership Corners Stats

The visitors are also highly-rated for low-corners results this season:

  • There have been Under 10.5 Corners in 6 of Aberdeen’s 9 away games. And in 7 of their last 8 league matches, overall

If odds-on prices don’t bother you too much, the Under 10.5 Corners option is available today at 1/2 (1.5) with Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook.

Those firms, as well as Bet365, have a variety of other Total Corners on offer, too (such as Under 9.5 Corners).

One way to combine Livingston’s match-winning form with those low-corners trends would be to use Bet365’s Bet Builder tool. For example, ‘Livingston to win and Under 11 Corners in the match’ pays 11/4 (3.75):

Bet365 Bet Builder

3/1 and 4/1 Anytime Scorers…

Always keen to sniff out the best prices and value possible, I like the Anytime Scorer odds for two Livingston players this evening.

Going back over my records for this season, the Scottish Premiership has proved a profitable hunting ground so far, with my picks in this division showing a 147% ROI.

That’s mainly down to Anytime Scorer payouts on Rangers defender James Tavernier, and Aberdeen midfielder Lewis Ferguson.

Ferguson is currently on an 8-game dry spell. In that time, he’s picked up three yellow cards, and been sent off.

Livingston have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 league games. A total of 14 Goals For, and 50% of them have come from a combination of central defender Jon Guthrie, and midfielder Scott Robinson

With odds of 3/1+ and 4/1+ available, those two are my picks for this game. Guthrie has found the net in 3 of his last 6 games. Robinson has got 4 in his last 6, including 3 in a row.

Oldham v Mansfield, 7.45pm…

Oldham have the worst record in League Two for Clean Sheets. They’ve managed just one all season – from a total of 21 games played.

The Latics are a regular for Both Teams to Score results, too. Seven of their last 8 in all comps have seen goals at both ends. With a 73% home league record for that bet.

Both Teams to Score has also paid out in 4 of Mansfield’s last 5 games in all comps. That option is a 4/6 (1.67) favourite with the bookies tonight.

Once again, I’m prowling around the edge of that form, with a decent-price scorer selection in mind…

Jordan Bowery is the 8/5 (2.6) market leader for the away side. Bowery has scored in each of his last 4 league appearances for Mansfield, after a 16-match drought in all comps before that.

I like the bigger odds available for 23-year-old midfielder, George Lapslie. On loan from League One side Charlton, Lapslie has found the net in 2 of his last 4 games for Mansfield.

Taking the form back further, George has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 6 of his last 15 games for the Stags. With odds of 9/2 (5.5) and 4/1 (5.0) on offer tonight, that makes him one to follow.

Today’s picks

From the analysis above, here are my picks for today…

Livingston v Aberdeen

  • Anytime Scorer: Scott Robinson @ 10/3 (4.33) with Bet365, 3/1 (4.0) Betfred, Betway
  • Anytime Scorer: Jon Guthrie @ 9/2 (5.5) with Bet365, 17/4 (5.25) Betway, 4/1 (5.0) Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred

Oldham v Mansfield

  • Anytime Scorer: George Lapslie @ 9/2 (5.5) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 4/1 (5.0) Bet365, Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, Betway

I’ll be back tomorrow with a stats update, as we prepare for the weekend fixtures.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues