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Midweek Preview - with EFL selections at 107/1...

Tuesday 29th December 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Premier League pointers…
  • Championship Treble @ 7/1…
  • Win & BTTS in League Two… 

Midweek Preview – with EFL selections at 107/1…

Season’s Greetings…

The festive football continues this evening. The weather, and coronavirus, has put pay to a few fixtures. But the schedule is still packed with games.

Let’s get straight into the action, starting with the English top-flight. Here’s my take on the midweek markets and standout stats...

Premier League pointers…

Man Utd v Wolves (8pm – Amazon Prime Video)

Wolves played in the Premier League on Sunday night, holding Tottenham to a 1-1 draw. The Black Country club take to the field again this evening, with little rest, travelling to Man Utd.

United drew 2-2 at Leicester on Saturday afternoon. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s team have now scored 2+ Goals For in 6 of their last 7 matches in all competitions.

That firepower could prove significant against Wolves tonight. The men in black & gold are without a Clean Sheet in 8 games…

In terms of the Scorer options for the home side, the two main men to consider are Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford. Both were on the scoresheet in the 2-2 Boxing Day draw at Leicester:

  • Fernandes has scored in 5 of his last 10 Man Utd appearances
  • Rashford has also scored in 5 of his last 10 games

In terms of tonight’s prices on those two players, Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes & Coral are the place to go for Anytime Scorer. Fernandes is 6/4 (2.5), and Rashford is 9/5 (2.8).

Betfred have the top prices for First Goalscorer. With Fernandes at 4/1, and Rashford at 5/1.

West Brom v Leeds Utd (6pm – Amazon)

Sam Allardyce is already starting to cast his spell at West Brom, with a 1-1 draw at champions Liverpool the first feather in his cap.

The bookies aren’t too sure that this will be a ‘park the bus’ encounter, though. With Under 2.5 Goals actually priced as the 6/5 (2.2) underdog in the Under/ Over Total Goals market…

That can be put down to the fact that you never know what you’re going to get with Leeds this season. Along with injury problems in defence, and a short turnaround since their last game over Christmas.

  • Leeds have won 6 games since returning to the Premier League: 3 of them have been by the 1-0 score. But the other 3 have been high-scoring affairs, 5-2, 3-0, and 4-3

Two of those 1-0 victories came on the road. I’d be leaning to the low-scoring side of things this evening. In that respect, the following Correct Scores prices may appeal to you.

At BetVictor, the 1-1 draw is 15/2 (8.5), and Leeds 1-0 is 10/1. West Brom 1-0 is a top price 14/1 with Bet365.

Tottenham v Fulham (Wednesday 6pm – Amazon)

On Boxing Day, Fulham provided a Most Booking Points payout at standout odds of 6/4 (2.5). Winning the Most Cards in their 0-0 draw v Southampton, by 2 Yellow Cards to nil (Booking Points = 20-0).

Incidentally, that was Fulham’s fourth consecutive draw. With scores of 0-0 x 2, and 1-1 x 2.

Scott Parker’s side remain very much one to follow in the Most Cards & Booking Pts markets…

  • Bets on Fulham for the Most Cards/ Booking Pts have paid out in 6 of their last 7 games
  • In the Premier League stats on our website, Fulham are ranked No.1 for this bet. With a 67% strike-rate (10 out of 15 games)

In comparison, Tottenham are one of the best-behaved teams in the division. Receiving the Most Cards/ Booking Pts in just 3 of their 15 league matches in 2020/21 (20%).

With Fulham on the road this time, we won’t get odds of 6/4 like we did for Saturday’s home game against Southampton. But the stats make it hard to argue with backing Fulham again in this market, with odds of around 17/20 (1.85) and 4/5 (1.8) available.  

Different bookies call this bet by different names. For example, it’s Fulham 0 Card Handicap at Bet365. At William Hill and Skybet, it’s Most Booking Points. With Betway, 888 Sport & Unibet, it’s called Most Cards.

Football League selections at 7/1 and 107/1…

Moving on to the English Football League (EFL) now. And there are a few teams & matches that get the antenna twitching for a big-odds combo or two this evening…

Championship Treble…

In the Championship, the formbook leads me to three Match Result selections:

  • Norwich v QPR (7.45pm). Norwich are top of the table. The Canaries have won 5 of their last 6 overall, and 4 of their last 5 at home. QPR are 19th, and 8 games without a win. The home win is 3/5 (1.6)
  • Rotherham v Barnsley (7.45pm). Barnsley have won 4 of their last 5. Rotherham are on the edge of the relegation zone, and have lost 4 of their last 5. The away win is 11/10 (2.1)
  • Stoke v Nottingham Forest (8pm – Sky Sports). Stoke have kept 4 Clean Sheets in a row, and lost just one of their last 8 league games. At home, Stoke have won 5 of their last 7. Forest have only won one of their last 10 games. Their away record is W1 D2 L7. The home win is 8/5 (2.6) and 6/4 (2.5)

The Treble on Norwich, Barnsley & Stoke pays 7/1+.

Win & Both Teams to Score in League Two…

In League Two, we’re returning to the Win & Both Teams to Score (Win & BTTS) markets. Here are three contenders for wins, with goals at both ends of the park…

Bradford v Port Vale (7pm)

  • Bradford have won 3 games in a row. They’ve only managed 4 Clean Sheets all season (from 20 league matches). Both Teams to Score has paid out in 6 of Port Vale’s last 7 games. Vale have found the net in 7 of their 9 away games this season

Bradford to Win & Both Teams to Score is 4/1 (5.0) and 15/4 (4.75).

Grimsby v Oldham (7pm)

  • Oldham are the No.1 team for Win & BTTS, with all 8 of their victories paying out in this market. Six of those 8 wins have come on the road. With 20 games played, Oldham are still yet to keep a Clean Sheet this season. Grimsby have lost 6 of their last 8 games, with Win & BTTS delivering in 5 of those 6 defeats

Oldham to Win & Both Teams to Score is 10/3 (4.33) and 3/1+ (4.0+).

Newport v Exeter (7pm)

  • Newport are top of the table, and have won 7 of their 9 home games. Win & BTTS has paid out in 3 of their last 5 home wins. Exeter have an 89% away record for Both Teams to Score, with goals at both ends in 8 of their 9 away trips this season 

Newport to Win & Both Teams to Score is 4/1 (5.0) and 15/4 (4.75).

Take your pick…

As ever, my advice with these selections is to pick & choose, however you prefer – Singles, Doubles, Trebles, and any manner of combinations…

I’m going for my usual three-markets approach. So far, this ‘Rule of Three’ tactic has delivered an overall profit in five out of eight attempts.

Bradford, Oldham & Newport:

Match Win treble pays 14/1 and 13/1.

Both Teams to Score treble pays 4/1 (5.0) and 7/2+ (4.5+).

Win & BTTS treble pays 107/1 and 103/1.

Today’s picks

From the analysis above, here are my picks for the midweek games…

Tottenham v Fulham

  • Most Booking Points: Fulham @ 17/20 (1.85) with William Hill, 5/6 (1.83) Bet365 (0 Card Handicap), 4/5 (1.8) 888 Sport, Unibet (Most Cards), Skybet (Most Booking Points)

Championship: 3 games listed above

  • TREBLE. Norwich, Barnsley & Stoke to Win @ 15/2 (8.5) with William Hill, 7/1 (8.0) in general

League Two: 3 games listed above

  • TREBLE. Match Result: Bradford, Oldham & Newport to Win @ 14/1 with Betway, BetVictor, 13/1 in general 
  • TREBLE. Both Teams to Score: in the 3 League Two games listed above @ 4/1 (5.0) with William Hill, 7/2+ (4.5+) in general
  • TREBLE. Win & Both Teams to Score: Bradford, Oldham & Newport @ 107/1 with Bet365, 103/1 BetVictor, 90/1 & 80/1+ in general

I’ll be back on Thursday with my next analysis, angles & advice for you. Looking ahead to the New Year’s Day & weekend fixtures.

P.S
Throughout the festive period, all the games and all the latest stats will continue to be automatically updated on your members-only Across the Leagues website. In total, the site covers 17 different leagues, and over 300 teams.

You can access all our League Stats, Team Stats, and Head-2-Head home v away stats comparisons, by logging-in at: www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues