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Most Corners stats for the 6pm games...

Wednesday 27th January 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

  • 6pm kick-offs…
  • Premier League…
  • Scottish Premiership…

Most Corners stats for the 6pm games…

Across the Leagues member Lee P took yesterday’s analysis, and ran with it.

Lee picked himself out a 12/1 winner.

That’s what we like to hear…

“Nice work yesterday Oliver. Did both Lukaku and Ibrahimovic Anytime and also
took a chance with a treble of them 2 with over 60 pts on the cards
markets. 12 to 1. Cheers boys”

The match in question was the Coppa Italia quarter final between Inter Milan and AC Milan.

The cream-rises-to-the-top theory was proved in that one, with both teams’ star strikers finding the net…

Zlatan Ibrahimovic got the opener, landing standout odds of 11/2 for First Goalscorer.

  • Romelu Lukaku got the equaliser from the penalty spot. Lukaku has now scored against AC Milan 4 times in a row
  • Zlatan has delivered First Goalscorer payouts in 7 of his 14 starts this season. A 50% hit-rate in that market is remarkable

It was an eventful cup tie. As well as scoring, Ibrahimovic was also sent off for a second bookable offence. The first yellow came for a forehead-butting confrontation with Lukaku.

The referee went off injured in the second half, too. You don’t see that very often...

That touchline switcheroo contributed to 10 minutes of time added on at the end of the match. With referees having so many cables and earpieces to swap over, the changeover took a while. It looked like the man in black was preparing to go undercover.

Inter won the match in the 7th minute of injury time. Final score: Inter Milan 2 AC Milan 1.

In the disciplinary markets, the Cards tally was settled at 9, with the Booking Points tally at 95.

The big boys in Europe today…

The Coppa Italia quarter finals continue today, with Atalanta v Lazio (4.45pm), followed by Juventus v Spal on BT Sport at 7.45pm.

If you want to follow the ‘back the best’ route in those, then Lazio top scorer Ciro Immobile is 6/4 (2.5) with BetVictor to score Anytime.

Juventus star man Cristiano Ronaldo is a top price 7/10 (1.7). Ronaldo is shorter odds-on elsewhere, more like 4/9 (1.44) across the board.

As we reported on Monday, Immobile has scored in an eye-popping 16 of his last 18 appearances for Lazio. All that football might be taking its toll, though…

His manager said Ciro had a painkilling injection before last weekend’s match – in which the Italian striker scored the winner.

In Spain, Barcelona go to second-tier Vallecano in the Copa del Rey (8pm)…

Lionel Messi is in the squad, returning from suspension after picking up the first red card of his club career.

Messi is as short as 4/11 (1.36) with Paddy Power to get straight back to scoring ways, and no bigger than 8/13 (1.62) at best, with Boylesports.

Playing the Corners this evening...

Three matches have caught my eye in the Most Corners stats today. Two of these games kick off at 6pm.

In the Premier League…

Burnley v Aston Villa (6pm, BT Sport)

Burnley have been out-cornered in 7 of their last 8 league games, including an 11-1 corners score at tonight’s opponents, Aston Villa.

The stats on our website show that:

  • Villa are ranked 3rd in the division for Most Corners bets, including 6 out of 9 payouts on the road (67% away record). Burnley are second from bottom in that chart, with just 2 corners wins from 8 home games (25%)

The Head-2-Head comparison on our site tells us that Villa are averaging 6.2 Corners For per away game, compared to 4.3 Corners For at home for Burnley.

Brighton v Fulham (7.30pm, BT Sport)

Brighton won the corner count 8-1 in a goalless draw at Craven Cottage in December.  They meet Fulham again this evening, this time at their own ground.

The stats on our website show that:

  • Brighton have won the Most Corners in 8 of their 9 home games (89%). Fulham have paid out on the Corners Match Bet in just 2 of their 8 away games (25%)

The Head-2-Head comparison on our site tells us that Brighton at home are winning an average of 2.7 corners per game more than opponents. Fulham away have a negative corners margin of -1.

Brighton v Fulham - Head-2-Head

In the Scottish Premiership…

St Johnstone v Aberdeen (6pm)

Four of St Johnstone’s last 7 Scottish Premiership games have seen a Red Card. Including in a 2-1 defeat at Aberdeen on Boxing Day. But it’s the Corners form that I’m most interested in here…

Our stats show that:

  • St Johnstone have won the Most Corners in 9 out of 12 home games this season (75%)

And if we take out games against the Old Firm big two of Rangers and Celtic, St Johnstone’s home strike-rate improves further, to 9 out of 10 payouts in the Most Corners or Corners Match Bet markets.

In Aberdeen’s last visit to McDiarmid Park, in August, St Johnstone lost the game, 0-1, and won the Most Corners, 5-1.

Take your pick…

Villa to win the Most Corners, or Corners Match Bet, is 1/2 (1.5).

Brighton are also priced at 1/2 (1.5).

St Johnstone are Evens (2.0) in general, and 11/10 (2.1) with Skybet.

Other bookies with these markets for today’s games include Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, Boylesports, Betway, Marathonbet.

I’m taking the two Premier League sides in a double. And St Johnstone as a single.

Today’s picks

From the analysis above, here are my picks for today…

Premier League

  • DOUBLE. Corners Match Bet: Aston Villa & Brighton @ 5/4 (2.25) with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 23/20 (2.15) Skybet, William Hill, Betway

St Johnstone v Aberdeen

  • Most Corners: St Johnstone @ 11/10 (2.1) with Skybet, Evens (2.0) in general

I’ll be back tomorrow with an update, including a look at the 2020/21 Outright markets.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues