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Opportunity knocks in Scotland at 50/1...

Friday 2nd August 2024

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Our first bet of the season…
  • Scottish Premiership starts on Saturday lunchtime…
  • Top Goalscorer analysis…

Opportunity knocks in Scotland at 50/1…

The Scottish Premiership kicks-off tomorrow lunchtime. Time for our first big-odds bet of the season…

Beware the curse of the Transfer Window…

The UK summer Transfer Window doesn’t close until the evening of Friday 30th August. That’s great if you’re still hoping for your club to sign a flip-hot new striker. Not so much if you’re trying, as I am, to assess the 2024/25 ante-post markets…

A rule of thumb to guide us over the opening month of the season: don’t back anyone with ‘transfer rumours’ lingering over them. For example, I’m sure some punters got stung in Scotland a couple of years back. On the opening weekend of 2021/22, Celtic forward Odsonne Edouard was the 7/2 favourite to be top scorer in the Scottish Premiership. But by the end of that August, he’d gone to play for Crystal Palace in the Premier League. It’s a bit of a minefield, for sure.

A couple of the top scorers from last season’s Scottish Premiership have transfer doubts hanging over them right now, on the eve of the new 2024/25 campaign…

Rangers captain and goal-scoring wing-back, James Tavernier, has featured several times for us in Across the Leagues. We’ve noted time and again that he has an eye for goal, with set pieces a speciality. Last season, Tavernier – who is essentially, on paper, a defender by trade – finished 3rd in the Scottish Premiership chart, with 17 goals. No fewer than 12 of those strikes came from the penalty spot. He also missed four spot kicks in the league.

Betfred have Tavernier at 33/1 as I write, with Ladbrokes & Coral at just 14/1. While some firms aren’t listing him at all – with various football news outlets reporting that Rangers are going to let him go…

The 1st place prize last term went to Hearts forward, Lawrence Shankland. A man who we were onto early in this column, backing him at a top price of 20/1 Each Way the season before, when he hit 24 goals to finish in the places (bookies pay 1/4 odds 1-3 places for Top Goalscorer in the Scottish Premiership). Shankland went off much shorter in 2023/24, and this time 24 goals was enough to land the full honours…

Lawrence starts as one of the favourites this month, at just 4/1. That’s not a price with much Each Way potential in it. Last season, Shankland converted three out of six penalties in the league; a big drop-off from the year before when he banged in a cool 11 out of 11 from the spot.

It’s not all about the Old Firm, you know…

Shankland for Hearts is a strong non-Old Firm contender, but odds of 5/1 (6.0) at best (Betfred) don’t do it for me. Bet365 have him shorter, at 10/3 (4.33). And when we consider that 365’s market has six of the top eight in the betting wearing Celtic or Rangers shirts – then we really should be going for a bigger price if we want to back a player from beyond the two long-established teams for the title…

Aberdeen are 100/1 to win the league, but just 3/1 in the ‘Without Celtic and Rangers’ market. Their striker Bojan Miovski has been right up there pushing for a place in the top scorer charts in recent seasons, hitting 16 goals, two campaigns running…

Along with Shankland, Miovski is the only other non-Old Firm name in that top eight names on Bet365’s Scottish Premiership 2024/25 Top Goalscorer list. The North Macedonia forward netted four out of five league penalties for Aberdeen last season, and six out of seven in 2022/23. The problem is, like Tavernier for Rangers, Miovski is surrounded by a lot of transfer rumours. If he leaves this month, then odds of 14/1 will be no good to us…

As I’ve reported before, it’s certainly worth looking for an underdog with potential from outside of the Old Firm pairing of Celtic and Rangers:

  • KEY STAT: In the last 12 seasons, 6 non-Old Firm players have managed to finish top of the Scottish Premiership scoring charts

That recent 50% ‘outsider’ strike-rate is an eye-catching stat, if you ask me. With the new Scottish top-flight season kicking-off this Saturday afternoon, I’ve got one name for us at a nice, Each Way price…

Opportunity knocks for 50/1 Sokler…

Aberdeen forward Ester Sokler is the man I’m looking at. Skybet were 50/1 earlier this week, but are now 20/1. Betfred are still standing 50/1 as I write, though. With 33/1 available elsewhere (see below).

  • By the way, take no notice of Oddschecker, who don’t seem to be listing anyone other than Skybet, William Hill, and BetVictor for this market right now. I’ve visited multiple bookmaker sites, and can tell you that Scottish Premiership Top Goalscorer is also available today with Each Way betting on offer with the likes of Bet365, Betfred, Ladbrokes & Coral. While 888 Sport have a Win Only market (with Sokler at 33/1 outright)

If Miovski does leave Pittodrie this month, then fellow 25-year-old Sokler may be the player to take immediate advantage of the gap up front on the team-sheet. The Slovenian had limited game-time for the Dons last season, with just six starts from 26 Scottish Premiership appearances (and one league goal). However…

The vast majority of those substitute appearances were late cameos, coming on in the last 10 minutes of games. So far in the fledgling 2024/25 campaign, Ester has started four out of four games for Aberdeen in the Scottish League Cup group stages. Scoring four times, with a pair of braces in July. The bookies have Sokler down as one of the Anytime Scorer favourites for Aberdeen’s league opener at St Johnstone on Monday night.

  • Our old friend Luis ‘Duk’ Lopes is also one to lookout for at Aberdeen. He’s 20/1 for top scorer at Betfred, but 50/1 with Ladbrokes & Coral – and not listed with some firms. Duk is a super talent, but may prove to be more of a provider and creative force than an out-and-out goal poacher. What’s more, like Miovski, Duk could also be about to leave Pittodrie for pastures new…

We’ll take standout day one odds of 50/1 or 33/1 for Ester Sokler as an outsider with Each Way potential in the Scottish Premiership Top Goalscorer market…

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

Scottish Premiership 2024/25

Top Goalscorer – Each Way (1/4 odds 1-3 places):

Time-saver: where possible, the bookie links above go directly to the matches/ markets in question.

I’ll be back next week, as we prepare first for kick-off in the English Football League – and then the Premier League…

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues