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Palace v Man Utd - a Case of the Ex at 9/1...

Wednesday 3rd March 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

  • RB Leipzig v Wolfsburg, 7.45pm…
  • Crystal Palace v Man Utd, 8.15pm…
  • First Scorer and Player Card picks…

Palace v Man Utd – a Case of the Ex at 9/1…

It’s fair to say that yesterday’s featured matches ended up being short on end-to-end entertainment…

Two of my three nominated Win & Both Teams to Score contenders ended goalless:

Doncaster 2 Portsmouth 1
Oxford 0 Peterborough 0
Exeter 0 Walsall 0

  • Exeter are the top scorers in League Two. That’s the first time all season that they’ve had a 0-0 at home
  • Peterborough are the second highest scorers in League One. Last night was the Posh’s first away 0-0 of the campaign

Elsewhere, Juventus beat Spezia 3-0 in Serie A. And that man Cristiano Ronaldo got his 20th goal of the season. That’s yet another record for Ronnie – becoming the first player to score 20+ goals in 12 consecutive seasons in Europe’s top five leagues. Amazing player.

In Germany, the DFB-Pokal quarter final didn’t live up to the Goals Galore hype. Dortmund won 1-0 at Monchengladbach. We might see another 1-0 tonight…

RB Leipzig v Wolfsburg…

German Cup (DFB-Pokal)
7.45pm

There are two more ties in the German Cup today, and the one I’m interested in is RB Leipzig v Wolfsburg

We’ve spoken before about players leading us a merry dance this season. Wout Weghorst drew a blank as an Anytime Scorer pick in the league last weekend. But with his run of games without a goal now standing at three, I’m in the camp that big Wout is going to get back to scoring ways sooner rather than later…

Prior to the current ‘barren’ patch, the 6’5” striker had scored in 12 out of 16 games in all competitions.

His Wolfsburg side are 3/1 underdogs tonight. But the Wolves are unbeaten in 10 games in all comps, and are on a remarkable run of eight consecutive clean sheets.

That strong defensive backbone, and the away-day match outsider factor, contribute to Weghorst’s price being a little larger than usual today…

The Dutchman is around 8/5 (2.6) to Score Anytime, compared to Evens (2.0) or shorter most weeks this season. And that seeps into the First Goalscorer odds, where we can get him at 5/1 (6.0). Given the circumstances outlined above, this represents a nice opportunity to get behind Wout once again.

Elsewhere in the Wednesday-night Scorers notebook…

In England, there’s a big game at the top of the Championship today – and it looks a battle of the big two in the Scorer markets, too…

  • Norwich v Brentford (5.30pm). The Canaries’ top scorer Teemu Pukki is on a 4-match streak for First Goalscorer payouts. He’s 3/1 to do it again. Although with the likes of Ivan Toney up front for Brentford, there will likely be more appealing days to get behind Pukki, especially at that price. Toney is Top Goalscorer in the Championship, and around 4/1 to strike First  

Back to the cup game in Germany…

Leipzig have conceded first in three of their last six at home, including each of the last two. They lost 0-2 v Liverpool in the Champions League. Then in the Bundesliga on Saturday, they came from 0-2 at half time to beat Monchengladbach, 3-2.

Overall, the Red Bull club are hard to beat. Leipzig are 2nd in the league, and that Liverpool result was only their second home defeat in 17 outings in all comps in 2020/21.

Making a case for the away upset though, it’s worth noting that RB’s sole home loss in the league came against fellow title challengers Borussia Dortmund (1-3). And of the other six teams around them in the top seven places in the current Bundesliga table, Leipzig are yet to host Bayern Munich, Wolfsburg, and Eintracht Frankfurt. And their victories over Bayer Levekusen and Union Berlin were both by narrow 1-0 score-lines.

On the flip-side to the tight defensive angle for tonight’s match, it’s also worth noting that the two of the last three encounters between Leipzig and Wolfsburg have actually provided a fair amount of goalmouth action. With a 2-2 draw in the Bundesliga this season, and a 1-6 away cup win for Leipzig, either side of a 0-0 league stalemate.

It's unlikely that Wolfsburg have forgotten that 6-1 thumping in last season’s competition. Odds of 2/1 (3.0) appeal for Wolfsburg ‘Draw No Bet.’ If their impressive defensive unit continues to hold firm – and with Weghorst a threat in attack – then a 90-minutes away result is far from out of the question.

Crystal Palace v Manchester United…

Premier League
8.15pm – Sky Sports

The injured Wilfried Zaha is the obvious player link between these clubs. But it’s an ex-Palace man that I’m drawn to in today’s markets…

  • Aaron Wan-Bissaka – the 23-year-old defender has been booked in 2 out of 2 appearances v Palace since signing for Man Utd
  • On the official Premier League website, Wan-Bissaka is joint-top for Most Tackles this season (71)

The ex-player factor means nothing without the price. And on that front, odds of 6/1 (7.0) and 11/2 (6.5) catch the eye for Wan-Bisakaa ‘To be Carded’ today. Even more so, a standout 9/1 (10.0) with Bet365 ‘To be Booked.’

Lining up for the home team, we can’t talk about the discipline stats without mentioning this guy Luka Milivojevic. He’s by far Palace’s most-carded player this season. With seven yellow cards in the Premier League and a straight red, giving him twice as many total cards as any of his teammates.

The Serbian midfielder has been booked in three of his last five games. Odds of 5/2 (3.5) appeal. He also has previous form against tonight’s opponents:

  • Milivojevic has been booked in 3 of his last 4 starts v Man Utd

Milivojevic is a 7/1 favourite for First Card, with Wan-Bissaka a best price 16/1 with William Hill and Betway.

Team Stats - Crystal Palace

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TODAY’S PICKS:

From the analysis above, here are my picks for today…

RB Leipzig v Wolfsburg

  • First Goalscorer: Wout Weghorst @ 5/1 with Boylesports, Betway 
  • Wolfsburg – Draw No Bet @ 2/1 with William Hill, Skybet, BetVictor, Betfred

Crystal Palace v Man Utd

  • To be Booked: Aaron Wan-Bissaka @ 9/1 with Bet365, 6/1 Boylesports. To be Carded: 11/2 Skybet, William Hill, Betway
  • To be Booked: Luka Milivojevic @ 5/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 12/5 Bet365. To be Carded: 23/10 Skybet, William Hill, 9/4 Boylesports

I’ll be back tomorrow, when I’ll be taking a look at the current prices and positions in the 2020/21 Outright markets.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues