Tuesday 23rd May 2023

In Across the Leagues today:

• Coventry v Luton…
• Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday…
• Carlisle v Stockport… 

Playoff Finals: Wembley tension at 34/1…

Our weekend stats picks turned a profit, thanks to Ruben Neves getting another yellow card for Wolves. And Aleksandar Mitrovic returning to action at Craven Cottage, scoring both of Fulham’s goals in a 2-2 draw v Crystal Palace.

This Friday, we’ll be looking at the final-day stats for two top-flight leagues: the English Premier League, and the German Bundesliga.

There are also three massive matches taking place at Wembley over the coming Bank Holiday weekend, in the shape of the English Football League (EFL) Playoff Finals…

I’ve been going through the 2022/23 EFL formbook, and the playoff finals history books. And my take is that backing three draws is the way to go here…

The playoff finals are absolutely massive occasions for all of the clubs involved. As well as the promotion prize on the line, there’s also the big payday. And the chance to perform at Wembley Stadium in front of tens of thousands of your fans – a genuine once-in-your-career opportunity for some of these players…

Coventry v Luton

Championship Playoff Final
Saturday 4.45pm, Sky Sports

We’re on Coventry at 22/1 or 20/1 for promotion, from back in March. The bookies make Luton the favourites going into Saturday’s big-money final; understandable given that the Hatters finished 3rd in the Championship table this season, 10 points above the 6th-place Sky Blues.

However, both meetings between these sides were drawn this season (1-1 and 2-2). And after watching the playoff semi-finals, I’d say Coventry look a solid defensive outfit. While high-pressing Luton will certainly bring a physical and aerial threat. This match-up could produce another stalemate. With extra time and a potential penalty shootout on the cards in my opinion…

• 5 of Coventry’s last 6 games have gone Under 2.5 Goals – including 3 draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-1)

• 5 of Luton’s last 7 games have gone Under 2.5 Goals. Including 3 draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-1)

Recent Championship Playoff Final history says to expect a close-fought battle:

• 9 of the last 10 Championship Playoff Finals have paid out on Under 2.5 Goals. Including 3 x 0-0 draws that required extra time/ penalties

The draw is 2/1 (3.0) in general – see below for best odds.

Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday

League One Playoff Final
Monday 3pm, Sky Sports

The bookies make Sheffield Wednesday the favourites; and again, that’s justified when you consider that the Owls finished the ‘regular season’ with a clear 10 points between themselves and Barnsley.

However, the Tykes did the double over Wednesday during the campaign, 4-2 and 0-2…

And that 2022/23 head-to-head suggests that Barnsley can make this final very competitive indeed…

• Barnsley ended the season with a run of 5 out of 7 games paying out on Under 2.5 Goals… while Sheff Wed reached the playoff final after a flurry of 7 out of 8 games going Over 2.5 Goals. Something’s got to give next Monday afternoon…

The League One Playoff Final notebook tells us there are usually goals in this end-of-season fixture – although it’s rare for one team to dominate the scoreboard:

• 8 of the last 10 League One Playoff Finals have gone Over 2.5 Goals in normal time. Including 5 x 2-1 Correct Scores, as well as 1-0 and 3-2 scores (eg. one-goal margins of victory)

The draw is 12/5 (3.4) or 9/4 (3.25).

Carlisle v Stockport

League Two Playoff Final
Sunday 1.30pm, Sky Sports

Stockport finished just 3 pts above Carlisle in League Two. County won the home fixture, 2-0. While Carlisle held them to a 2-2 draw at their place. The bookies make Stockport the favourites, but again, there is not a lot in this…

It could turn into a war of attrition… which may well mean a stalemate that requires extra time or penalties to settle it…

• Carlisle ended the season with a streak of 11 out of 13 games going Under 2.5 Goals. Including both legs of their playoff semi-final, which went to extra time in the 2nd leg. They’ve drawn 4 of their last 8 games

• Stockport also produced a sustained spell of low-scoring results in the run-in, with 13 of their last 16 games paying out on Under 2.5 Goals. Including both legs of their playoff semi, where they needed a penalty shootout to get to Wembley

The last 10 years of League Two Playoff Final results says it’s 50-50 for Under/ Over 2.5 Goals:

• 5 of the last 10 League Two Playoff Finals have gone Under 2.5 Goals, and 5 have gone Over 2.5. There have been 3 draws in that time – all of which ended goalless at the end of normal time

The draw is 12/5 (3.4) with Bet365, and 2/1+ (3.0+) in general.

My approach here is to back the draw at 2/1+ in each of the Playoff finals. And to also play the draws in a treble at attractive odds of 30/1+.

Other angles to consider for these playoff finals…

• Under 2.5 Goals

• The 0-0 Correct Score – or even better, ‘No Goalscorer’ in the First Goalscorer market, which pays out on the 0-0, and on games where the only goals are Own Goals

• Team to Win in Extra Time, or on Penalties, in the Method of Victory market – sometimes referred to as ‘How Will the Tie be Decided?’

Carlisle and Stockport were ranked in the Top 3 for Clean Sheets in League Two this season:

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

EFL Playoff Finals:

• Coventry v Luton – Match Result: DRAW @ 21/10 (3.1) Bet365, Skybet, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 2/1 (3.0) general

• Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday – Match Result: DRAW @ 12/5 (3.4) Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, 23/10 (3.3) Skybet, 9/4 (3.25) Betfred, BetVictor, Sporting Index Fixed Odds

• Carlisle v Stockport – Match Result: DRAW @ 12/5 (3.4) Bet365, 11/5 (3.2) Skybet, 21/10 (3.1) William Hill, Boylesports, BetVictor, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

• TREBLE: 3 Draws as listed above @ 34/1 Bet365, 32/1 Skybet, 30/1 William Hill, Boylesports, Sporting Index Fixed Odds

I’ll be back on Friday, ready for our annual trip to Germany for the final day of the Bundesliga season. And of course, the last day of action in the Premier League…

Enjoy the football…

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues