Across the Leagues Betting Advice - Email Archive Content

Pizzi the pick in Portugal tonight...

Monday 2nd November 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Anytime Scorers…
  • Leeds v Leicester, 8pm…
  • Boavista v Benfica, 9pm…

Pizzi the pick in Portugal tonight…

Anytime Scorer is one of my favourite types of bet. While many match markets require us to wait out the full 90 minutes & injury time, a successful scorer selection can have you celebrating at any point in the game.

Much more importantly, though, is the ability to make this market pay…

I’ve gone through the 2020/21 numbers today. So far this season the players & prices I’ve flagged up as Anytime Scorer picks in my Across the Leagues analysis have produced a 45% ROI to level stakes.

That’s a healthy figure. And it’s not achieved by getting it ‘right’ every time. It’s done by only betting when there’s a compelling case for the odds and/ or match situation to be in our favour.

In other words, we’re looking for chances to get a bit of betting value on our side. Two games and two men tick that box for us this evening…

Leeds Utd v Leicester City

Monday Night Football on Sky Sports might be worth tuning into early tonight. Guest pundit Mauricio Pochettino will be expected to offer some insight into the beautiful football mind of Leeds manager, Marcelo Bielsa. Former Tottenham boss Pochettino played under Bielsa at two different clubs during his career, as well as for the Argentinean national team.

From an Across the Leagues point of view tonight, the man we’re interested in is Leicester striker Jamie Vardy.

A 20/1 Top Goalscorer winner in the Premier League last season, Vardy was our 18/1 Each Way choice again at the start of this campaign. So far, Jamie has done well with six goals, two off the leaders, despite missing a couple of games through injury. The bookies now have him down to 8/1 to be Top Goalscorer in 2020/21.

Vardy made a scoring return to the Leicester line-up at the end of October, firing in the only goal of the game in a 1-0 league win at Arsenal, followed by bagging the opening goal in the Foxes’ 2-1 win at AEK Athens in the Europa League last week.

The Leicester striker will be looking to make it a hat-trick of consecutive away-day strikes this evening. Vardy is Evens (2.0) to find the net at Leeds tonight, and his record against newly-promoted sides suggests he might be hard to stop…

Key stat:

  • Jamie Vardy has scored 9 goals in his last 8 games against newly-promoted teams in the Premier League

Boavista v Benfica

Off to Portugal now for the 9pm kick-off between second-bottom Boavista and 2nd place Benfica…

There are plenty of scoring options for the visitors here. Benfica forward Haris Seferovic has landed Anytime Scorer bets in three of his six appearances this season. Luca Waldschmidt’s record is three in seven. Our Europa League match-day two pick from last week, 21-year-old new signing Darwin Nunez, has so far given an Anytime payout in two of his eight appearances for the club.

Available at slightly bigger prices than those three today, Benfica penalty-taker Luis Pizzi is the man that catches my eye…

Key stats:

  • Pizzi was joint-top scorer in the Portuguese league last season, with 18 goals
  • 9 of Pizzi’s 27 goals since the start of 2019/20 have come from the penalty spot (33%)

Since the start of last season, Pizzi has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 23 out of 50 appearances for Benfica (46%).

Using today’s top price of 6/4 (2.5) for Pizzi as a guide, that 46% Anytime Scorer strike-rate puts his if-backed-in-every-game figure into profit, showing a 15% ROI to level stakes from the start of last season to now.

On the most recent form, Pizzi has scored in three of his last five outings (two pens).

And the penalty angle could prove to be one worth pursuing this evening. Opponents Boavista have conceded from a penalty in two of their last three games.

Furthermore, consulting the recent head-to-head history for this fixture informs us that Pizzi has scored in three of Benfica’s last four meetings with Boavista.

The Portuguese midfielder is one to follow at the best prices tonight.

Today’s picks

Premier League

Leeds v Leicester
8pm, Sky Sports

  • Anytime Scorer: Jamie Vardy @ 21/20 (2.05) with Betway, Evens (2.0) Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral

Portuguese Liga

Boavista v Benfica
9pm, live streaming on selected bookie websites

  • Anytime Scorer: Luis Pizzi @ 6/4 (2.5) with Betway, Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral

I’ll be back tomorrow with Tuesday’s analysis for Champions League match-day three.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues