Friday 20th November 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
There are no more Internationals until next year. Starting this weekend, we have a big, busy run of domestic league fixtures to enjoy.
This is where the season really gets going. Form in the book. Dark evenings drawing in. Floodlights on Saturday afternoons. Wet Tuesday nights. And all to play for at the top and bottom of every league table.
Your Across the Leagues website contains stats for 17 leagues across England, Scotland, and Europe. Taking in well over 300 teams…
Now, I might be dedicated to the cause. But I’m no superman. In your weekly email updates, I’ll be bringing you my readings of the form, pointing out standout stats, and reporting my analysis of matches, players, and prices that catch my eye during my research.
If you choose to follow me, I’ll be including my picks at the end of the email.
But if you prefer to use the site to dig out your own nuggets of gold, then get yourself logged-in, and strap on your headtorch and head down the tunnel at:
There’s certainly lots to be found on the website. And unearthing your own stats picks can be a very satisfying experience.
One man who sounds like he knows what he’s doing is Across the Leagues member, Eric J…
Emailing in response to yesterday’s article on Half Time/ Full Time betting, Eric writes:
“Thanks for a great article re. the consistency of randomness in the HT/FT markets. The HT/FT reversal is a bet I look for on a regular basis as you don't have to hit many at the available prices to make an overall profit. I tend to look for flaky teams that like to attack but are low on confidence and or have a high goals against tally. Another area of rich pickings is the final games in the Champions League and Europa qualifying group games. It usually throws up a few games where both sides need to win. I trade them on Betfair as the prices are always higher and usually cover my trades by betting Over 2.5 goals in play, knowing that if one side scores more goals tend to follow. Anyway thanks again and keep the great insights coming”
Eric makes some good points there. My own two biggest wins in the HT/ FT markets in the last two seasons have come in Champions League knockout ties. The inference being, when things get desperate with goals needed against the clock, dramatic turnarounds can happen.
On to the weekend action now. Here’s my take on the games and markets…
The English Football League (EFL) has agreed to allow five substitutions per team in every game between now and the end of the season.
With the Championship, League One & League Two regularly playing on weekends and in midweek, the increase from three to five subs should help curb player fatigue and injuries. If you’ve got enough strength in depth in your squad, that is…
Coventry v Birmingham on Sky Sports tonight will be the first EFL game to feature the new five-subs rule.
A few years ago, a couple of obscure online bookies (Expekt.com springs to mind) used to offer Under/ Over markets on Total Number of Substitutes Used in a match. I can’t see anything for this weekend’s games, though. Let me know if you spot anything.
Rangers v Aberdeen on Sunday features the two top scorers in the Scottish Premiership this season – a right-back and a midfielder. And the prices continue to appeal…
Rangers’ penalty and free kick taker James Tavernier has scored in 10 of his last 15 games. Odds of 2/1+ simply don’t match his form this season. The Rangers right back and captain has also scored four goals across his last four appearances v Aberdeen, with all of those coming from the penalty spot.
Lewis Ferguson has proved a profitable pick this season, including Anytime Scorer payouts when flagged up in this column at 5/1 and 8/1. The 21-year-old Aberdeen midfielder has scored in seven of his last 14 games – and he takes pens, too. Again, the odds belie his goalscoring exploits this season. You can get 15/2 (8.5) with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook.
They may not play up front for their respective sides, but Tavernier and Ferguson are the joint-top scorers in the Scottish Premiership this season, with eight goals apiece. And they are also the most prolific men in the division right now for Anytime Scorer bets (6):
Eoin Doyle featured in my weekend preview last week. I said the Bolton striker was one to look out for when he returns from injury. Well, he went straight back into the starting line-up last Friday night, and scored the opening goal in Bolton’s 2-0 win over Salford.
Rested for the midweek match in the Papa John’s Cup, Doyle is a man I want to be backing this weekend, and in the weeks and months ahead…
Last season’s Top Scorer in League Two for Swindon, the Irishman has so far got three league goals for Bolton. If he stays fits and play enough games, then Doyle can rewards backers prepared to take him at outsider prices of 33/1 Each Way in the Top Goalscorer market…
At the start of the season, Eoin was just 6/1 for this bet.
As it stands, he’s nine goals off early pacesetter Paul Mullin (Cambridge), but only four goals off the Top 4 places covered by the Each Way terms. A couple of braces or a hat-trick would change all that. And another goal this weekend would see that 33/1 cut, too. This is price that looks more likely to go down than up.
I also like Doyle at 9/4 (3.25) to score Anytime at Stevenage on Saturday.
After a -4 Corner Handicap winner on England at Wembley in midweek, I’m following the corner stats to Old Trafford this weekend…
Man Utd v West Brom looks a prime contender for a Most Corners win for the home team. The Premier League stats on our website show that Man Utd have won the Most Corners in three of their four home games so far, including a 9-3 corners score v Crystal Palace.
The Baggies are bottom of the league for this bet, with zero Most Corners triumphs on the road so far, and only two from their eight league games overall. West Brom’s away corners defeats have included tallies against them of: 5-2, 6-2, 5-1, and 11-1.
I like Man Utd to cover a -3 Corner Handicap here.
From the analysis above, here are my picks for the weekend…
Rangers v Aberdeen
Sunday 12 noon
Man Utd v West Brom
Saturday 8pm – BT Sport
Stevenage v Bolton
League Two 2020/21 – Top Goalscorer:
Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-4 places.
I’ll be back next week. The Champions League returns on Tuesday, so there’s lots to look forward to.
Enjoy the football…