Across the Leagues Betting Advice - Email Archive Content

Weekend Preview - with 25/1 and 125/1 contenders...

Friday 4th December 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Stats for 17 leagues…
  • West Ham v Man Utd…
  • Win & BTTS contenders…

Weekend Preview – with 25/1 and 125/1 contenders…

That man James Tavernier was at it again last night…

The Rangers captain has now scored a remarkable 15 goals this season. Landing Anytime Scorer bets in 13 out of 24 appearances in all competitions. Not bad for a right-back.

Nine of Tavernier’s strikes have come from the penalty spot. Including last night’s goal, which came on the stroke of half time at Ibrox…

It was one of those handballs that wouldn’t have been given in my day (not that they had VAR at my village playing fields). And Tavernier even slipped over as he took it. But it went in the net.

With that, and Blackburn’s late winner on Wednesday night, it seems things are going our way this week.

Players and prices…

Rangers beat Standard Liege 3-2 in yesterday’s game. Tavernier was a 5/2 (3.5) pick in the Anytime Scorer market.

Rangers go to Ross County in the Scottish Premiership on Sunday. This time, their goal-scoring captain is a bit shorter, at around 9/5 (2.8) and 6/4 (2.5). If the league leaders get a penalty though, you know who’ll be taking it.

Two other men that have been on our Thursday-night Europa League hit-list this season are Benfica’s nimble-footed pair, Luis Pizzi and Darwin Nunez

Both men found the net for Benfica last night. We’ve followed those two at odds of 3/1 (4.0) and 5/1 (6.0) in recent weeks. They’re more like Evens (2.0) each for their upcoming weekend game in the Portuguese league.

  • Nunez missed most of November after testing positive for coronavirus. The hotly-tipped 21-year-old Uruguayan has found the net in 4 of his last 7 games for Benfica
  • Pizzi has now scored in 3 games in a row, and in 5 of his last 9

Pick-your-own winners…

Your members-only Across the Leagues (ATL) website is packed with stats, covering 17 leagues, and over 300 teams…

Across a range of betting markets including Match Results, Goals, Corners, Cards, and Scorers

With League Stats sections, Team Stats, latest Form, and home v away Head-2-Head comparisons.

ATL member Mick has been making good use of the wealth of data available on the site…

Mick did his homework this week. Rewarded with two nice winners from the midweek football, in the Corners and Cards markets:

“Hi Oliver had a good double £50 on Wednesday had a good 2 hours going through the stats on across the leagues and found Bristol rovers v gillingham most corner bet Bristol rovers about 88% at home gillingham 0% away bet365 had them at 11/10 should have been nearer 1/2 and sheff wed v reading most cards 88% sheff wed at home and reading 0% away 6/5 again should have been nearer 1/2 great stats but you have to find them”

You can check out the stats match-ups for this weekend’s fixtures at:

Form v History in the North London derby…

Some trends present themselves on the very latest form. Other stats can be returned to time and time again over the course of several seasons…

That can especially be the case with derby matches. While the most current formbook can be ‘thrown out the window,’ as the pundits say. Historical head-to-heads can prove fruitful to follow.

Tottenham v Arsenal

In recent seasons, these two angles have proved profitable and reliable for the North London derby between Tottenham and Arsenal:  

  • 14 of the last 15 North London derbies in all competitions have seen the home team win the Most Corners 
  • 9 of last 12 meetings in the Premier League have seen the away team receive the Most Cards & Booking Points

Those are some very strong patterns, stretching as far back as 2013.

But, to counter those historical trends, the 2020/21 season-to-date form doesn’t back up those Corners and Cards patterns:

  • Tottenham have won the Most Corners in just 3 of their last 10 games in all comps
  • Arsenal have received the Most Cards in just 2 of 18 games in all comps, and on zero occasions in the Premier League this season (from 10 games)

And with Arsenal raining in their highest number of crosses of the season during a 2-1 home defeat v Wolves last weekend, could we see Mikel Arteta’s side racking up a few more flag kicks than usual on this trip to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium?

Man Utd 25/1 for the comeback…

Man Utd lost 1-3 v PSG in the Champions League on Wednesday. The Old Trafford side were 0-1 down after just 6 minutes. Continuing a trend for conceding first; something that we noted last month in our Half Time/ Full Time analysis.

Since then, Man Utd have delivered the first Half Time/ Full Time (HT/ FT) turnaround of the season in the Premier League. Coming from 2-0 down at Southampton last weekend, to win 3-2. A comeback that paid 22/1 in the HT/ FT market.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side have now conceded first in 5 of their last 7 games in all comps. And when we look at the away form, it gets even more interesting:

  • Man Utd have gone a goal down during the first half in 5 of their last 7 away games – but in 4 of those 5 games, United ended up winning

West Ham v Man Utd

The Red Devils face a tricky-looking trip to West Ham on Saturday dinnertime (5.30pm, Sky Sports).

When these sides last met, in July, West Ham were 1-0 up at Old Trafford at half time. The match ended 1-1.

In the meeting prior to that, the Hammers won this home fixture, 2-0.

  • West Ham have scored first in each of their last 5 games. Including away at Liverpool (eventually lost 2-1) and Tottenham (3-3 draw), and at home v Man City (1-1 draw)

There’s a teasing amount of evidence here to suggest that David Moyes’ side could make another fast start against one of the big boys, if not managing to get over the line at full time…

Take your pick…

In the Match Result market, the bookmakers have West Ham as 27/10 (3.7) underdogs, with Man Utd the favourites at 11/10 (2.1) at best, and the draw as a 13/5 (3.6) shot.

Going into the less-familiar markets:

West Ham are 11/8 (2.38) to be the First Team to Score (Bet365, Skybet, Betway).

BetVictor have Man Utd at 9/1 to Win From Behind. Paddy Power are 6/1 for United to Draw From Behind.

Any of those could well have legs this weekend. With the scent of a big win in the nostrils, I can’t resist a speculative play on the HT/ FT option, with HT West Ham/ FT Man Utd trading at 25/1 and 22/1.

Win & BTTS contenders…

After some very encouraging results in the Win & Both Teams to Score (Win & BTTS) markets over the last fortnight, let’s look to keep our eye in with those options in the English Football League this weekend:

Portsmouth v Peterborough

  • 4 of Portsmouth’s last 5 wins in all comps have paid out on Win & BTTS. Peterborough have lost 4 of their last 5 games, with the 3 most recent defeats all ending 2-1

Portsmouth to Win & Both Teams to Score is 7/2 (4.5).

Cambridge v Oldham

  • Cambridge are winless in 5 games in all comps. Both Teams to Score has paid out in 7 of their last 10. Oldham have won 4 of their last 5 away games in League Two, with all 4 wins delivering on the Win & BTTS

Oldham to Win & Both Teams to Score is 6/1 (7.0).

Colchester v Grimsby

  • Colchester are unbeaten at home in the league, and on a 9-game run overall for Both Teams to Score. Their last 4 home wins in all comps have paid out on Win & BTTS. Grimsby have conceded 19 goals in their last 6 matches, and 3 of their last 5 defeats have seen goals at both ends 

Colchester to Win & Both Teams to Score is 3/1 (4.0).

Take your pick…

As ever, my advice with these selections is to pick & choose, however you prefer – Singles, Doubles, Trixies, Patents…

I’m going for the three-pronged approach that served me well earlier this week:

Portsmouth, Oldham & Colchester:

Match Win treble pays 15/1 and 14/1.

Both Teams to Score treble pays 9/2 (5.5) and 4/1 (5.0).

Win & BTTS treble pays 125/1.

Today’s picks

From the analysis above, here are my picks for this weekend…

West Ham v Man Utd (Premier League, Sat 5.30pm)

  • Half Time/ Full Time: West Ham/ Man Utd @ 25/1 with Marathonbet, VBet, 23/1 NetBet, 10Bet, 22/1 Bet365 and in general

Portsmouth v Peterborough (League One, Sat 3pm)
Cambridge v Oldham (League Two, Sat 3pm)
Colchester v Grimsby (League Two, Sat 5.30pm)

  • TREBLE. Match Result: Portsmouth, Oldham & Colchester to Win @ 15/1 with William Hill, BetVictor, 14/1 in general 
  • TREBLE. Both Teams to Score: in the 3 games listed above @ 9/2 with William Hill, 4/1 in general
  • TREBLE. Win & Both Teams to Score: Portsmouth, Oldham & Colchester @ 125/1 with Bet365, BetVictor, 100/1+ in general

I’ll be back next week with plenty more for you. It’s another Champions League week, with midweek Football League action, too.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues