Thursday 15th August 2024

In Across the Leagues today:

• Premier League 2024/25 – starts tomorrow…
• Top Goalscorer – Each Way advice…
• Three men to follow…

Premier League Top Scorer: Each Way picks at 100/1…

The Premier League kicks-off tomorrow night, with Man Utd v Fulham live on Sky Sports…

As promised, following on from Tuesday’s Top Goalscorer stats and analysis. We’re going after some appealing prices in the Each Way betting for 2024/25…

A good price for the Egyptian king…

In Tuesday’s scorer piece I mentioned that Liverpool’s Mo Salah is a ‘Mr Consistent’ when it comes to finding the net in the Premier League. Despite picking up an injury during the African Cup of Nations last season, Mo still managed to keep up his impressive league scoring record for the Anfield club:

• Mo Salah has scored 18+ Premier League goals in each of the last 7 seasons. In that time, Salah has converted 25 out of 31 penalties

While Man City’s two-time Top Goalscorer winner Erling Haaland goes off as the odds-on favourite once again, at no bigger than 8/11 (1.73) and 4/6 (1.67). In the ante-post 2024/25 betting, Salah at 12/1 or 10/1 catches the eye. Double-figure quotes are plenty big enough for us to get behind a top-class, proven finisher and regular penalty taker like Mo here – with bookies paying four places, Each Way (1/4 odds).

Captain can step up at 100/1…

Each Way is very much the key when it comes to our two other pre-season picks in the Premier League Top Goalscorer market. With some very large odds on the table, touching 100/1 with a couple of firms. A place finish for one or both would go down very nicely, along with the big outright ticket for the top prize…

Bruno Fernandes ticks plenty of boxes from our Top Scorer notes, despite playing in midfield as opposed to directly up front. The Man Utd captain has just signed a new contract, too…

• Bruno has been placed in this market before, finishing 3rd in the 2020/21 scoring charts with 18 league goals. He’s hit double figures or better in 3 of the last 4 league seasons. Fernandes takes pens, too: converting 19 out of 23 overall in his Premier League career to date

Also, with 21-year-old Man Utd striker Rasmus Hojlund out injured for the first few weeks of the season. And 23-year-old new arrival Joshua Zirkzee about to embark on his first season in the Premier League (only Erling Haaland was won the Golden Boot in his debut campaign). A relative old hand like Bruno Fernandes, who will turn 30 next month, could prove to be both a steady scoring presence for United… and a surprise package in the Top Goalscorer chart. 100/1 – 66/1 appeals, Each Way. See below for best prices and bookies.

Full English at 125/1…

Here's another scorer stat for you…

• In 10 of last 11 Premier League seasons, at least one Englishman has finished in the Each Way places for Top Goalscorer (and not just Harry Kane)…

That list includes:

Charlie Austin
Daniel Sturridge
Jamie Vardy
Danny Ings
Raheem Sterling
Patrick Bamford
Ivan Toney
Ollie Watkins
Dominic Solanke
Phil Foden
Cole Palmer

Ahead of the new season, English players that placed in this market last season, such as Ollie Watkins and Cole Palmer, go off at much shorter prices this time. A year ago, Watkins was 33/1… but this season he’s a 16/1 shot. Palmer was a 100/1 surprise in 2023/24… his 2024/25 price is just 20/1.

Likewise, Dominic Solanke, who’s been chopped from 40/1 to 20/1 since moving from Bournemouth to Tottenham this summer.

One England International available at much bigger odds though, is newly-appointed West Ham captain, Jarrod Bowen…

• Bowen has scored doubles-figures+ in 2 of the last 3 Premier League campaigns, with last season his best yet (16 goals) 

Jarrod scored last weekend, in his first pre-season appearance for the Hammers after an extended summer break, having been at Euro 2024 with England.

Last season, Bowen’s 16 league goals put him level with England teammate, Bukayo Saka. For the purposes of comparison, the Arsenal star is 40/1 and 33/1 in the 2024/25 Top Goalscorer betting. While West Ham’s Bowen is more like 100/1 and 66/1…

Obviously, there’s some league-table expectation built in to those Saka/ Bowen prices. But as that list of Englishmen above suggests, as well as the findings in our historical top-scorer research: you don’t necessarily have to be in the title race to be in with a shout of placing in the scorer charts…

West Ham finished 9th last season. They kick-off 2024/25 with a new manager, Julen Lopetegui. And unlike last term, the Irons won’t be balancing their squad and fixtures around European football. In their trophy-winning 2022/23 campaign, Bowen scored five times in 11 Europa Conference League appearances. This time, captain Jarrod can concentrate on the Premier League…

Add in the fact that new Hammers arrival Niclas Fullkrug, as we discussed the other day, will be playing outside of the German leagues for the first time. And top prices of 125/1, 100/1, and 66/1 Each Way appeal for Bowen, more so than 50/1 for debutant Fullkrug. With the German also up against that ‘first season in the PL’ stat… which only short-price superstar Erling Haaland has ever managed to beat. Bowen knows how to find the net in this league…

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

Premier League 2024/25

Top Goalscorer – Each Way (1/4 odds 1-4 places):

• Mo Salah @ 12/1 Ladbrokes & Coral, 10/1 Bet365 and in general 

• Bruno Fernandes @ 100/1 BetVictor, Sporting Index & Spread Ex, 66/1 Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports

• Jarrod Bowen @ 125/1 Sporting Index & Spread Ex, 100/1 BetVictor, 66/1 Skybet, William Hill, Betfred, Ladbrokes & Coral 

Time-saver: where possible, the bookie links above go directly to the matches/ markets in question.

I’ll be back tomorrow morning with some Relegation pointers for you. Along with the first round of our new Premier League Predictor game…

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues