Tuesday 29th September 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

• Lazio v Atalanta tomorrow night…
• Serie A top scorers…
• Half Time/ Full Time trends…

Returning to Italy at 25/1…

Liverpool and Arsenal kept up their long-running trends last night.

Jurgen Klopp’s side won 3-1, and are now unbeaten in 61 league games at Anfield. That’s three years and counting. Formidable stuff.

Arsenal, on the other hand, have been through a couple of managers in that time. And the Gunners are now 28 Premier League away trips without a win against the established ‘Big Six’ clubs (Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea, Tottenham).

The historical goals form also continued…

• Liverpool’s 3-1 victory means that Both Teams to Score has now paid out in each of the last 8 meetings between the clubs in all competitions. And 10 of the last 12 have gone Over 2.5 Goals

They face each other again later this week. In (wait for it), a quirk of the fixture computer. Liverpool play Arsenal in the Carabao Cup on Thursday night. Past League Cup incarnations of this fixture have produced 5-5, 2-1, 3-6 and 4-2 score-lines. The verdict: expect more goals.

The Italian comeback…

Talking of high-scoring games, Lazio v Atalanta could be fun tomorrow night…

It’s not long since we landed one of our very best results, with PSG coming from 0-1 down to beat Atalanta 2-1 in the Champions League quarter finals this summer. And in doing so, return odds of 25/1 in the Half Time/ Full Time (HT/ FT) market.

You can catch up on the case we made before that game in August here.

This doesn’t mean we should be queuing up to back a HT/ FT turnaround in every Atalanta game. But the Italian side certainly have plenty of credentials for rollercoaster matches…

• If you backed the two HT Lose/ FT Win options at 25/1 each in all 14 of Atalanta’s games in all comps after the 2019/20 restart this summer, you’d have staked 28 points, and returned 78 pts. Giving 50 pts profit, for a 179% ROI

The team in blue & black were the top-scoring team in Serie A last season (finished 3rd in the league table). Atalanta kicked off the new 2020/21 league campaign in familiar entertaining fashion this month, with a 4-2 away win.

And it just so happens that Wednesday evening’s opponents Lazio also have plenty of ‘previous’ for score-line flip-flops, and general high-scoring activity…

Lazio were 4th in Serie A last season, and 3rd in the top-scoring team stats. Their meetings with Atalanta provided plenty of excitement for the neutral. With a 3-3 draw in October (0-3 at half time). Then a 3-2 in June, in which Atalanta came back from 1-2 down at the break, to claim the HT/ FT turnaround.

And this remarkable stat really clinches it:

• In Lazio’s last 7 home leagues going back to February this year, no fewer than 4 of them have seen a HT/ FT reversal

All four of those Lazio games ended 2-1 or 1-2 (three wins, one defeat).

We can’t ignore the trends here. There won’t be many occasions this season when two teams collide with such eye-catching form in a market that offers such dramatic odds.

It’s a best price 25/1 the pair tomorrow night – Lazio/ Atalanta, and vice versa.

Today’s picks

Italy, Serie A

Lazio v Atalanta
Wed 7.45pm, Premier Sports

• Half Time/ Full Time: Lazio/ Atalanta @ 25/1 with Betfred, BetVictor, Vbet, 22/1 and 20/1 in general

• Half Time/ Full Time: Atalanta/ Lazio @ 25/1 with Betfred, BetVictor, Vbet, 22/1 and 20/1 in general

I’ll be back tomorrow with more. Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues