Friday 6th November 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
After the upcoming International break, you and I will be spending a lot more time delving into the stats and trends to be found on the Across the Leagues website…
Some of the 17 leagues featured on our site have already hit the magic 10-game mark. Once a team is showing 5 home games and 5 away games, we’ve found over the years that the Head-2-Head home v away match comparison tool really starts to come into its own.
And I’ll be using some of these column inches in your weekly member emails to round-up and alert you to some of the most prolific, most reliable, and most profitable stats and trends to be found on our website…
For those of you that like to follow the stats & streaks, I’ll be flagging up stats picks for you. The Under/ Over 2.5 Goals markets, for example, are just one area that feature in the extensive League and Team coverage on the site.
And if you prefer more exotic odds and selections – with the promise of large, but infrequent payouts – then the bets and angles that I continue to share in your Across the Leagues emails will cater to those tastes, too. As is my modus operandi as laid out here.
The ATL website is the engine room, below deck. And I’m at the wheel, charting a course through the waves, through the calms and storms of the season. Adding my own stop-offs and excursions along the way, wherever I spot an intriguing outpost on the horizon…
Before we move on, a note on last night’s football. The 3-3 draw between Benfica and Rangers just about sums up what a losing streak feels like – full of near misses and frustrations…
Benfica had a man sent off within the first 20 minutes, prompting a formation switch, which saw my 11/4 (3.75) Anytime Scorer pick Luis Pizzi sacrificed in an early substitution.
The 10-man Portuguese side still managed to salvage a draw from the game though, courtesy of second-half sub, Darwin Nunez… with Nunez being a player I initially flagged up in the Europa League (as a losing scorer bet that night, I might add), just last week.
My big price of the evening was Rangers right-back James Tavernier, a standout 14/1 for First Goalscorer. The free kick & penalty taker didn’t get in on the goals this time, despite the match producing plenty of chances.
But as I’ve said before and I’ll say again, price is king…
Tavernier was a top price 11/2 (6.5) to score Anytime yesterday, and 14/1 (15.0) to score First. In comparison, for this weekend’s Scottish Premiership game between Rangers and Hamilton, Tavernier is just 9/5 (2.8) to score, and around 7/1 (8.0) to score first.
On the hunt for value opportunities, I’m always going to be looking to pull the trigger when the prices are on the larger side. That’s how I work. It’s taken me many years to get to this mindset. It takes patience, and faith.
Just as Aberdeen midfielder Lewis Ferguson has rewarded speculative Anytime Scorer odds of 5/1 and 8/1 for us recently, I have no doubt that a bet like Tavernier will pay for itself with a few healthy payouts at attractive odds over the course of the campaign.
That’s my approach. If you prefer more frequent winning payouts, albeit at less glamourous match-day prices, then the upcoming stats-picks coverage mentioned above will be right up your street.
Without further ado, here’s my take on the weekend football and prices – with today’s stop-off being Serie A in Italy…
There are plenty of interesting storylines this weekend. The FA Cup 1st Round has been given the go-ahead to play all matches, despite several of the non-league clubs not officially fitting the government bill as ‘elite’ level sport. It’s great that these ties are still going ahead, with many being broadcast on the BBC Sport site, too. But it’s a shame for everyone that there won’t be any fans there.
These ties are one-offs this season, with no replays, so it will be straight to extra time and then penalties if all square at the end of normal time.
In the top leagues, a couple of teams have the chance to make a rare leap to the top of the table this evening…
In the Premier League, a win for Southampton against Newcastle could send the Saints top, if only for one night. And in Italy, a Friday-night win for Sassuolo would send them 1st in Serie A…
Sassuolo have been good entertainers so far this season, with 3-3 and 4-1 results in their last two home games, as well as 4-3 and 4-1 wins on their travels. Tonight, they are at home v struggling Udinese, who have lost five out of six.
The home team’s leading scorer is the man I’m interested in here. Francesco Caputo has got five goals for Sassuolo so far, putting him just two off the top spot in the Serie A scorer charts. And the 33-year-old Italian fits in nicely with some Serie A patterns here…
In Italy, age is just a number…
In three of the last four seasons, the Serie A Top Goalscorer has been 30 years of age or older:
Ciro Immobile last season (age 30)
Fabio Quagliarella in 2018/19 (then age 35)
Edin Dzeko in 2016/17 (then age 31)
Plus, this season’s Serie A favourite Cristiano Ronaldo is 35 years of age, and the current 2020/21 leading scorer Zlatan Ibrahimovic is 39.
While those star men will also have Champions League and Europa League duties to attend to this season, Sassuolo and their key striker can concentrate on the league…
Francesco Caputo (age 33)
So far this season: 5 league goals (joint-3rd)
Last season: 21 goals (4th)
Season before, when playing for Empoli: 16 goals (joint-6th)
And let’s add all that to the stat that helped us land a 16/1 winner on Immobile for Lazio last season:
We’re already on Duvan Zapata of Atalanta at 20/1 in this market. At odds of 33/1 and 25/1 Each Way, Caputo stands out for me as one other outsider name for us to add to the book for Serie A Top Goalscorer this season.
In the markets for tonight’s match, I also like Caputo at 13/10 (2.3) to score Anytime. He’s landed that bet in four of his five Serie A appearances so far.
Last night, 19 of the 24 Europa League games went Over 2.5 Goals (79%). That comes after 14 of this week’s 16 Champions League matches also went Over 2.5 Goals (88%).
If you’re looking for some Over 2.5 Goals pointers for the weekend, then sticking with Serie A could pay dividends…
Take a look at these recent Total Goals results in Italy:
Round 6 last week = 7 out of 10 games Over 2.5 Goals
Round 5 = 8 out of 10
Round 4 = 8 out of 10
Round 3 = 5 out of 9
Round 2 = 7 out of 10
Round 1 = 4 out of 9
Those recent records suggest that compiling a selection of Serie A games into an Over 2.5 Goals acca might serve you well this weekend. You’ll find all the stats you need on our website.
Here are my picks from today’s analysis…
Italy, Serie A 2020/21
Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-3 places.
Sassuolo v Udinese
I’ll be back on Monday with a look at some of the standout stats for the season so far.
Have a good weekend. And enjoy the football…