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The Monday Report – could someone ‘do a Leicester’?

Monday 14th December 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • A festive feast…
  • Tavernier and Doyle in the goals again…
  • 500/1 outsiders in early contention…

The Monday Report – could someone ‘do a Leicester’?

The festive feeling is building here at Across the Leagues HQ. A feast of football gets underway with a full domestic programme in England in midweek.

That includes a full round of Premier League action, across Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday night. With all 10 games being shown live on Amazon Prime Video.

Plus, there’s EFL action in the Championship, League One & League Two, all kicking off tomorrow. We’ll be looking to dive in to the Win & Both Teams to Score action once again…

Win & BTTS update…

The weekend was a plenty satisfying one for those of you following the picks in the Weekend Preview email. No 134/1 jackpot on the Win & BTTS combo yet. But the Both Teams to Score treble delivered at odds of 9/2 (5.5):

Wigan 4 Accrington 3
Oldham 3 Bradford 1
Port Vale 1 Colchester 1

Takeaway stats from those score-lines:

  • Accrington have scored 2+ goals in each for their last 3 away games in League One
  • Oldham have now won 7 games this season in League Two (including 4 of their last 5), and all 7 victories have paid out on Win & Both Teams to Score
  • Both Teams to Score has paid out in 9 of Colchester’s last 10 games in League Two

With new Win & BTTS tables available on our website on the League Stats (Match Results) pages, we’ll be targeting those markets again soon.

Tavernier and Doyle in the goals again…

Our weekend Scorers notebook provided a few valid pointers, too…

On Friday night, Wout Weghorst bagged a brace for Wolfsburg in the German Bundesliga. The Dutchman has now scored in 5 games in a row, landed Anytime Scorer bets in 6 out of 8, and netted a total of 9 goals across those 8 games.

Over in the Austrian Bundesliga, Johannes Eggestein was also in the goals again. The 22-year-old German scored the opener for LAZK Linz in their 3-1 defeat at champions Red Bull Salzburg. Eggestein has now scored in 4 of his last 5 games for Linz, and in 7 of his last 10.

Both of my 2/1+ (3.0+) value picks in the Anytime Scorer markets ended up scoring the first goal of their respective games, too:

  • James Tavernier netted first in Rangers’ 2-1 win at Dundee Utd. The right-back is the top scorer in the Scottish Premiership this season. Tavernier has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 15 out of 27 appearances in all competitions
  • Eoin Doyle got the opener in Bolton’s 2-1 defeat at Walsall. Doyle has now scored in 5 of his last 6 games. A 33/1 Each Way selection in the League Two Top Goalscorer market last month, the Irishman is now 10/1 in general, and as short as 5/1 with BetVictor

In Friday’s email I also flagged up a match-day Trixie (3 Doubles and a Treble) on the three top scoring men in the Championship:

Adam Armstrong drew a blank for Blackburn. Lucas Joao didn’t play for Reading (void). Ivan Toney scored for Brentford.

With Joao void, that means he dropped out of any Double/ Treble combinations. In terms of the Trixie, the bottom line was a payout on the Toney & Joao line, settled as a Single on Toney, at a top price 6/4 (2.5).

500/1 outsiders in early contention…

After Leicester City’s seismic title win in 2015/16, the bookmakers are unlikely to ever again offer up odds as big as 5,000/1 on any team to win the Premier League.

That was the pre-season price on Leicester in the Outright Winner market back in August 2015.

In comparison to that 5,000/1 shocker, this season’s outsiders, newly-promoted Fulham and West Brom, were each priced at ‘just’ 1,000/1 on day one.

With the current 2020/21 season already one of the strangest ever. With a delayed start, no fans in the grounds (until now), and a fixture pile-up leading to concerns over injuries and player fatigue. This campaign could well throw up a surprise or two at the top of the leading European leagues…

Round 13 of the Premier League takes place from Tuesday to Thursday this week, so we’re just about dead-on a third of the way through the season.

Here’s the top half of the table, as it stands:

Pos.

Team

Played

Goal Dif.

Points

1.

Tottenham

12

+14

25

2.

Liverpool

12

+9

25

3.

Leicester

12

+9

24

4.

Southampton

12

+7

23

5.

Chelsea

12

+13

22

6.

West Ham

12

+5

20

7.

Everton

12

+3

20

8.

Man Utd

11

+2

20

9.

Man City

11

+6

19

10.

Aston Villa

10

+8

18

Now, let’s take a look at the prices.

Man City are currently 9th in the table, and 6 points off the top. The bookmakers have Pep Guardiola’s men as the 7/4 (2.75) favourites for the title.

Champions Liverpool started as 2/1 (3.0) shots in September, and they’re still that price today. There’s a big match this Wednesday night with the Reds hosting Tottenham, who are currently top on goal difference.

Elsewhere in the Premier League 2020/21 Outright Winner market:

  • Tottenham are 6/1 – from 66/1 at the start of the season
  • Leicester are 33/1 – from 200/1
  • Southampton are 150/1 – from 500/1
  • Chelsea are 7/1 – from 12/1
  • West Ham are 250/1500/1 – from 500/1
  • Everton are 200/1 – from 250/1
  • Man Utd are 18/1 – from 14/1
  • Aston Villa are 250/1 – from 1,000/1

In the case of Spurs and Leicester, those numbers suggest the value has gone, especially with the former. It will be interesting to see how Tottenham and Leicester approach the Europa League fixtures in February and beyond, if the Premier League title challenge is still ‘on.’

Fans of Southampton, West Ham, Everton, and Aston Villa must be delighted with events so far. And even dreaming of a possible Champions League qualification spot. Or maybe, just maybe, going all the way in the title race…

This season being as it is, I’m certainly not going to make any jokes or rule it out. It’s a funny ol’ game.

I’ll be back tomorrow, all set for the Tuesday fixture list in the Premier League and Football League.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues